US strikes on Iran seemingly imminent

[Elliott]

1 minute ago, Jannes said:

Trump and Putin are lovebirds. The investment of the US hasnt fully stopped, but its just a fraction of what it was before. 

https://usafacts.org/answers/how-much-foreign-aid-does-the-us-provide/countries/ukraine/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

This graph doesnt actually show the weapons, loans, intelligence, ... which adds about another 100 Billion the total 100 Billion USAID support.

In 2026 USAID it will be something like 400 Million plus 800 Million in military support. 

...

If US support stopped the biggest hit would probably be the loss of US intelligence. France can also provide, but not with the same quality. 

Why do you think China would work together with Europe in sanctioning the US ?

That graph is a symbolic middle finger.

The U.S./Trump attacks China more than anyone. This would also improve China's reputation in the world, China/Xi actually want to be a peace maker leader in the world, my opinion. China has good relations with Venezuela too, and Iran.

 

 

Global News

https://globalnews.ca

What China's 'alignment' with Carney on Greenland says of 'new world order'

22 hours ago — During his Beijing trip, Carney said Canada's new strategic partnership with China “sets us up well for the new world order.” “It's a 

 

Friends of Europe

https://www.friendsofeurope.org

After 50 years of diplomatic relations, what's next for EU-China cooperation?

Nov 17, 2025 — China has invested more than 100 billion USD in the EU, and trade reaches over 800 billion USD yearly, highlighted Biwei Liu, Vice President of

 

 

[Jannes]

4 hours ago, Elliott said:

That graph is a symbolic middle finger.

The U.S./Trump attacks China more than anyone. This would also improve China's reputation in the world, China/Xi actually want to be a peace maker leader in the world, my opinion. China has good relations with Venezuela too, and Iran.

 

 

Global News

https://globalnews.ca

What China's 'alignment' with Carney on Greenland says of 'new world order'

22 hours ago — During his Beijing trip, Carney said Canada's new strategic partnership with China “sets us up well for the new world order.” “It's a 

 

Friends of Europe

https://www.friendsofeurope.org

After 50 years of diplomatic relations, what's next for EU-China cooperation?

Nov 17, 2025 — China has invested more than 100 billion USD in the EU, and trade reaches over 800 billion USD yearly, highlighted Biwei Liu, Vice President of

 

 

Yeah it would massively help their reputation but they would be seen as a massive hypocrit if they then go on to invade Taiwan. Maybe they can postpone that for a bit. 

And all of these trade deals with the US are also a bit of a protection. If that all falls apart then what does the US loose when they (further) violate international law. Lol, wtf am I saying. Okay so some form of reaction needs to be had like a big round of tarrifs but maybe not overdo it so much that the US goes "fuck it, whats there to loose anyway". 

And again, your Links dont work. 

Edited Saturday at 10:52 PM by Jannes

[Jannes]

@Elliott The EU threatens tarrifs/ resolution of trade deals in response. Will see now if this builds enough pressure internally that it will stop Trump/ the US from conquering Greenland. 

[zazen]

On 1/16/2026 at 11:28 AM, zazen said:

Great breakdown of events. Everyone seems to be bracing for something to happen but who knows when - most of the US assets (ships etc) are around Venezuela in the Caribbean so maybe they need to move more into the region before doing anything as Elliot says. Also 25% of interceptors being depleted in the last 12 day war against Israel is worrying - these are expensive and take time to procure.

The only way the US would do something is if it can guarantee a short shock and awe campaign - get in and get out sort of thing. They aren't prepared for prolonged war as Israel would be without any air defense within 30 days. The only reason Venezuela was done was because they obviously had military insiders bought off allowing for heli's to fly in low without even any attempt at shooting them down which a simple RPG could do let alone other means. Short engagement is what their after rather than entanglement like a Vietnam / Afghanistan.

Saying that - deception and trickery is a hallmark of the current admin like we've seen. So Iran is still on high alert - if those assets are moving in like Elliot says then anything is possible over the weekend. It could be that the protests got cracked down on very quickly shortening the time horizon for them to act upon a distracted state - starlink was shut down (prob via Chinese or Russian tech). I'd be very surprised if anything were to happen though.

This guy breaks down the Iranian situation well:

 

 

On 1/16/2026 at 2:51 PM, Elliott said:

"Abraham Lincoln" strike group is headed to the middle east. A week out.

The West is not invincible. We rely on sophisticated stuff which is impressive and scary but also a dependency and vulnerability. We do not have infinite supplies.

Looks to be arriving in the coming day or two. https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/2012509278070837381

Tracker with lag: https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/vessels/USS-Abraham-Lincoln-(CVN-72)/CURRENT-POSITION/1/369970406

Listen to a what a key economic advisor under Obama says at Davos 3min mark:

Very likely something big to happen in the next few days - as carriers arrive and as heard from insiders ''indirectly'' he says.

Great watch on the big picture:

Anything possibly in the next two weeks. Could just be a aggressive posture to pressure Iran to concede - similar to Venezuela. But most likely Iran won't so US may go in for something or the other. Still don't see how Israel is prepared or not regarding air defense and interceptors but they've been saying they're willing to take the hit to go for Iran alongside the US. Perhaps they're out of domestic options considering the covert ground set they built up over years was cracked down on - Iran shut off the internet to find the starlink receivers and hunted them down.