US strikes on Iran seemingly imminent

[Jannes]

@Elliott  Okay that point I can understand. 

But if you own a whole country militarily with minimal losses, thats still a show of strength. 

Trump said he would help in Iran. That he backs down now is a bigger show of weakness then loosing a Jet. 

Edited Friday at 04:59 PM by Jannes

[Elliott]

46 minutes ago, Jannes said:

@Elliott  Okay that point I can understand. 

But if you own a whole country militarily with minimal losses, thats still a show of strength. 

You have a glamourized view of what a u.s. attack on Iran would look like. Iran is huge and strategically prepared, hence the underground nuclear sites. Why was the u.s. fighting Afghanistan for 20 years, a country with no legitimate military. Iran has the 14th strongest military in the world, Afghanistan 2001 had 50,000 soldiers, one u.s. aircraft carrier has 5,000 sailors. Iran has a million.

There's a specific dynamic being overlooked. The u.s. would be the offender, Iran defender. When you're a defender you have no reason to reserve missiles or jets for instance, Iran has a massive stock pile, they will fire indiscriminately, at ships, bases, everything that moves, they will hit, hence Israel's "Iron Dome" shattering to pieces in a MILD volley. When you're an offender, you're more reserved "China will take taiwan and Phillipines if we deplete or lose equipment, BRICS will take south america, Russia will take the Arctic".

 

 

 

Edited Friday at 05:06 PM by Elliott

[LordFall]

This analyzes describes how an attack on Iran would mostly likely mainly involve Israel supported by US military assets. 

[Elliott]

33 minutes ago, LordFall said:

This analyzes describes how an attack on Iran would mostly likely mainly involve Israel supported by US military assets. 

The state of New York did not indict Maduro, nor did Venezuela send drugs to the u.s., they come from Mexico and colombia.

Edited Friday at 08:02 PM by Elliott

[Jannes]

3 hours ago, Elliott said:

You have a glamourized view of what a u.s. attack on Iran would look like. Iran is huge and strategically prepared, hence the underground nuclear sites. Why was the u.s. fighting Afghanistan for 20 years, a country with no legitimate military. Iran has the 14th strongest military in the world, Afghanistan 2001 had 50,000 soldiers, one u.s. aircraft carrier has 5,000 sailors. Iran has a million.

There's a specific dynamic being overlooked. The u.s. would be the offender, Iran defender. When you're a defender you have no reason to reserve missiles or jets for instance, Iran has a massive stock pile, they will fire indiscriminately, at ships, bases, everything that moves, they will hit, hence Israel's "Iron Dome" shattering to pieces in a MILD volley. When you're an offender, you're more reserved 

Any major basis could just get bombed to the ground by the US and big pieces likes tanks or Jets dont really stand a chance imo but they can loose against Guerilla tactics on the ground. 

3 hours ago, Elliott said:

"China will take taiwan and Phillipines if we deplete or lose equipment, BRICS will take south america, Russia will take the Arctic".

Thats a good point. I cant picture the actual numbers of what recources the US really have. If they wanted to take controll on the ground I am sure they would need to put everything in there and would possibly even loose because they are outnumbered.  

Edited Friday at 08:10 PM by Jannes

[Jannes]

3 hours ago, Elliott said:

Nice Jets. The US has 2300 of those. 

[Elliott]

25 minutes ago, Jannes said:

Nice Jets. The US has 2300 of those. 

Zero of which can reach Iran without refuelling from inside Iran's missile range(iran will strike all the bases). Home field advantage.

 

 

ABC News

https://abcnews.go.com

Navy loses 2nd fighter jet in Red Sea in a week - ABC News

A US Navy fighter jet sank to the bottom of the Red Sea on Tuesday. It is the second 

 

 

NDTV

https://www.ndtv.com

Houthi Group Says Its Attacks Led To Shooting Down US F-18 Fighter Jet

May 1, 2025 — Yemen's Houthi group has said it had shot down a US F-18 fighter jet during an earlier assault on the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman

 

 

The New Arab

https://www.newarab.com

Yemen's Houthis nearly shot down advanced US F-35 jet: report

May 18, 2025 — The Houthis successfully shot down at least seven US MQ-9 Reaper drones- each worth around $30 million- and came close to hitting an American

 

 

 

National Review

https://www.nationalreview.com

The Houthis Just Turned a U.S. Super Hornet Fighter Jet into a Submarine

Apr 29, 2025 — Houthi rebels in Yemen have shot down 

 

 

Edited Friday at 08:41 PM by Elliott

[Jannes]

4 minutes ago, Elliott said:

Zero of which can reach Iran without refuelling from inside Iran's missile range(iran will strike all those bases). Home field advantage.

Okay, beggs the question if the Air Defense is advanced enough to shoot down the Jets. The B2 bomber could do some tactical bombing of air defense first. 

None of your links work 

[Breakingthewall]

Seems useless any strike from EEUU now. The only way to achieve regime change in Iran is through action by the Iranians themselves. The US and Israel will obviously collaborate if civil war breaks out, but for that to happen, a large sector of the Iranian armed forces would have to rebel, and this doesn't seem possible...so far. Who knows what tricks Israel has up its sleeve?

Yes, yes, Israel should mind its own business and all that, but on the other hand, perhaps 50 years of Islamic clerical dictatorship, where the illiterate rule and those who study emigrate, is enough for a millennia-old culture like Iran's.

[Elliott]

40 minutes ago, Jannes said:

Okay, beggs the question if the Air Defense is advanced enough to shoot down the Jets. The B2 bomber could do some tactical bombing of air defense first. 

None of your links work 

If you're actually interested, i suggest starting with your questions through AI. I'd be happy to talk about it more, but this just seems like we're having a dumb argument about something that's not going to happen.

 

I didn't mean missiles to shoot jets down, I mean to hit the u.s. bases, restricting the jets to air refuelling, a logistical nightmare, fighters fly for 2 hours max, less than 1 hour in combat.

This below is an air defense system, they don't sit still, the houthis use an even smaller one. Iran can actually detect stealth aircraft too. It's not really about advanced anything of irans though, it's mainly the brute missiles, their fighters are just for defense. Bombers are easily shot down by Iran. Then, we're back to your worry about using up our 5million dollar bombs.

Edited Friday at 09:21 PM by Elliott

[Twentyfirst]

https://www.instagram.com/p/DTTIqqzDK_F/?img_index=2

 

For those of you who don’t really understand why the world is obsessed with Iran,

let’s start from the basics geopolitics.

Iran is not a small country.

It is massive.

Iran is bigger than Germany, France, the UK, Italy, and Spain combined.

It sits at one of the most strategic positions on Earth.

Middle East.
Central Asia.
Close to Europe.
Close to Russia.
Close to China.
Close to the Persian Gulf.

It is a geopolitical bridge between East and West.

Now let’s talk about resources.

Iran is sitting on:

• One of the largest oil reserves in the world
• One of the largest natural gas reserves on Earth

• Huge mineral resources
• Massive energy potential
• Fertile lands
• Strategic sea routes

This is not a poor country.

This is a rich country under heavy control.

Iran alone has the kind of resources that can power entire regions.

And then there is history.

Iran is not just a country.

It is a civilization.

Long before many modern nations existed, Persia (today’s Iran) was already building empires.

According to modern history, some of the earliest human civilizations started in this region.

This was once one of the most advanced centers of culture, science, architecture, and governance in the ancient world.

Tehran, Isfahan, Persepolis.

These places were not villages.

They were world capitals of their time.

So when you hear “Iran”, don’t think small.

Don’t think weak.

Don’t think irrelevant.

Think:

• Huge land
• Huge population
• Huge resources
• Huge history
• Huge strategic importance

This is why every major power on Earth cares about Iran.

This is why America watches it.

This is why Europe worries about it.

This is why Russia and China calculate around it.

And this is why whatever happens in Iran never stays in Iran.

Iran is not just another country.

Iran is a prize.

And the whole world knows it.

And this is also why Iran can afford to play big geopolitics.

This is why Iran can sponsor, fund, and support groups far beyond its borders.

[Raze]

7 hours ago, Jannes said:

@Elliott  Okay that point I can understand. 

But if you own a whole country militarily with minimal losses, thats still a show of strength. 

Trump said he would help in Iran. That he backs down now is a bigger show of weakness then loosing a Jet. 

Because if he does a strike and nothing changes or it gets worse that would be a show of weakness. 

His advisors told him doing that would make Iran ramp up killings and israel said they don’t think a strike is enough to collapse the country as of now.

[Jannes]

3 hours ago, Elliott said:

If you're actually interested, i suggest starting with your questions through AI. I'd be happy to talk about it more, but this just seems like we're having a dumb argument about something that's not going to happen.

Oh no, I also dont think its going to happen. 

I just think the US would have the capacity, if they really wanted to, to destroy Irans military tech. 

 

3 hours ago, Elliott said:

This below is an air defense system, they don't sit still, the houthis use an even smaller one. Iran can actually detect stealth aircraft too. It's not really about advanced anything of irans though, it's mainly the brute missiles, their fighters are just for defense. Bombers are easily shot down by Iran. Then, we're back to your worry about using up our 5million dollar bombs.

They can shoot down a Boeing perhaps, but B-2 stealth bombers are designed to not be detected by high tech air defense. Without High Tech I think its unlikely you have a chance to shoot down the B-2s. 

The bunker breaker bombs cost that much, the other bombs are way cheaper. 

[Elliott]

54 minutes ago, Jannes said:

Oh no, I also dont think its going to happen. 

I just think the US would have the capacity, if they really wanted to, to destroy Irans military tech. 

 

They can shoot down a Boeing perhaps, but B-2 stealth bombers are designed to not be detected by high tech air defense. Without High Tech I think its unlikely you have a chance to shoot down the B-2s. 

The bunker breaker bombs cost that much, the other bombs are way cheaper. 

AI, please

 

https://www.f35.com/f35/about.html

"About the F-35

As the Navy's first stealth fighter and the world's only 5th Generation, long-range stealth strike fighter, the F-35C was designed and built explicitly"

 

https://theaviationist.com/2025/05/13/houthi-air-defenses-u-s-f-35s-and-f-16s/

"Yet with the loss of no fewer than seven MQ-9 Reaper unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) to hostile fire, as well as close calls with manned fighter aircraft, the U.S. had clearly been unable to secure aerial superiority. $1 billion of operational costs had been spent in the space of a single month, not including the two F/A-18 Super Hornets that had been completely lost during the operation."

"U.S. officials speaking to The New York Times said Houthi rebels ‘nearly struck’ U.S. F-16s and an F-35 within the first 30 days of Operation Rough Rider."

 

 

Defence Security Asia

https://defencesecurityasia.com

Iran's Bavar-373 Claims Ability to Track F-35 Stealth Jets: A Game-Changer in ...

Apr 16, 2025 — Fire-Control Radar Configuration: High-power S-Band and L-Band radars optimised for detecting low-RCS stealth aircraft. Detection Envelope

[Jannes]

10 hours ago, Elliott said:

AI, please

 

https://www.f35.com/f35/about.html

"About the F-35

As the Navy's first stealth fighter and the world's only 5th Generation, long-range stealth strike fighter, the F-35C was designed and built explicitly"

 

https://theaviationist.com/2025/05/13/houthi-air-defenses-u-s-f-35s-and-f-16s/

"Yet with the loss of no fewer than seven MQ-9 Reaper unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) to hostile fire, as well as close calls with manned fighter aircraft, the U.S. had clearly been unable to secure aerial superiority. $1 billion of operational costs had been spent in the space of a single month, not including the two F/A-18 Super Hornets that had been completely lost during the operation."

"U.S. officials speaking to The New York Times said Houthi rebels ‘nearly struck’ U.S. F-16s and an F-35 within the first 30 days of Operation Rough Rider."

 

 

Defence Security Asia

https://defencesecurityasia.com

Iran's Bavar-373 Claims Ability to Track F-35 Stealth Jets: A Game-Changer in ...

Apr 16, 2025 — Fire-Control Radar Configuration: High-power S-Band and L-Band radars optimised for detecting low-RCS stealth aircraft. Detection Envelope

Shooting down drones is orders of magnitude easier then shooting down a fighting yet. 

I read a bit about operation rough rider. The US destroyed 800 targets and lost 7 unmanned drones in the process. 

Read that the two F/A-18 Super Hornets were lost in operational accidents, maybe thats propaganda idk. 

It would be more costly to attack Iran yeah ..

 

You made the point about sanctioning the US if they want to take Greenland. I like the idea more and more. So many countries around the world want a rule based world. You could start with an agreement of all NATO states to sanction the US if they take Greenland and look for more countries around the world to join that agreement. Imagine you get an agreement of half of the countries on this earth threatening tarrifs on the US for destroying the rule based world. That would be a ballsy thing to do.

Edited Saturday at 12:57 PM by Jannes

[Elliott]

1 hour ago, Jannes said:

Shooting down drones is orders of magnitude easier then shooting down a fighting yet. 

I read a bit about operation rough rider. The US destroyed 800 targets and lost 7 unmanned drones in the process. 

Read that the two F/A-18 Super Hornets were lost in operational accidents, maybe thats propaganda idk. 

It would be more costly to attack Iran yeah ..

30 million dollar drones, not backyard drones, Reaper bomber drones. 

 

https://www.twz.com/17486/houthi-rebels-release-flir-video-showing-shoot-down-of-saudi-f-15s

 

Houthi Rebels Release FLIR Video Showing Shoot Down of Saudi F-15S ...

Jan 8, 2018 — Houthi rebels have released video they claim shows the exact moment they shot down Royal Saudi Air Force F-15S over Yemen.

 

 

 

https://theaviationist.com/2025/05/13/houthi-air-defenses-u-s-f-35s-and-f-16s

", the U.S. had clearly been UNABLE to secure aerial superiority even after $1 billion of operational costs had been spent in the space of a single month, not including the two F/A-18 Super Hornets that had been completely lost during the operation"

 

The Times of Israel

https://www.timesofisrael.com

Houthis claim to strike US aircraft carrier, warn of 'consequences' if attacked ...

Jan 19, 2025 — Yemen's Houthi rebels claim an attack on an American aircraft carrier in the early hours of Sunday morning, and warn of “consequences”

 

 

 

USNI News

https://news.usni.org

USS Harry S. Truman Back in Med After 50 Days in Red Sea - USNI News

Feb 6, 2025 — Aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) pulled into Souda Bay, Greece on Thursday for a port call following 50 days in the Red Sea

 

The National Interest

https://nationalinterest.org

The USS Harry S. Truman Has Left the Red Sea

May 22, 2025 — Truman is returning home after an extended Red Sea deployment, joint NATO drills, and combat operations—losing three F/A-18s during the mission 

 

 

 

Human Rights Watch

https://www.hrw.org

Yemen: Houthis' Attacks on Cargo Ships Apparent War Crimes

Jul 23, 2025 — The Houthi armed group in Yemen attacked two commercial cargo vessels in the Red Sea between July 6 and 9, 2025, violations of the laws of

 

 

USNI News

https://news.usni.org

Houthis Attack Dutch Ship in the Red Sea - USNI News

Oct 2, 2025 — The Houthis first attacked M/V Magic Seas with small boats and then with ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as drones. The crew abandoned 

 

Council on Foreign Relations

https://www.cfr.org

Conflict in Yemen and the Red Sea | Global Conflict Tracker

Nov 12, 2025 — Houthi attacks of the same nature continued into November. On November 19, the Houthis hijacked a commercial ship in the Red Sea and have

 

 

 

The u.s. AND u.k. military combined LOST to the Houthis, LOST.

 

Quote

You made the point about sanctioning the US if they want to take Greenland. I like the idea more and more. So many countries around the world want a rule based world. You could start with an agreement of all NATO states to sanction the US if they take Greenland and look for more countries around the world to join that agreement. Imagine you get an agreement of half of the countries on this earth threatening tarrifs on the US for destroying the rule based world. That would be a ballsy thing to do.

It won't make a speck of difference after greenland, only before. Europe will be toast.

Edited Saturday at 02:25 PM by Elliott

[Jannes]

52 minutes ago, Elliott said:

30 million dollar drones, not backyard drones, Reaper bomber drones. 

Doesnt make a difference. Drones are categorically much easier to hit, thats why old tech works. 

 

52 minutes ago, Elliott said:

https://www.twz.com/17486/houthi-rebels-release-flir-video-showing-shoot-down-of-saudi-f-15s

 

Houthi Rebels Release FLIR Video Showing Shoot Down of Saudi F-15S ...

Jan 8, 2018 — Houthi rebels have released video they claim shows the exact moment they shot down Royal Saudi Air Force F-15S over Yemen.

 

https://theaviationist.com/2025/05/13/houthi-air-defenses-u-s-f-35s-and-f-16s

", the U.S. had clearly been UNABLE to secure aerial superiority even after $1 billion of operational costs had been spent in the space of a single month, not including the two F/A-18 Super Hornets that had been completely lost during the operation"

 

The Times of Israel

https://www.timesofisrael.com

Houthis claim to strike US aircraft carrier, warn of 'consequences' if attacked ...

Jan 19, 2025 — Yemen's Houthi rebels claim an attack on an American aircraft carrier in the early hours of Sunday morning, and warn of “consequences”

 

 

USNI News

https://news.usni.org

USS Harry S. Truman Back in Med After 50 Days in Red Sea - USNI News

Feb 6, 2025 — Aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) pulled into Souda Bay, Greece on Thursday for a port call following 50 days in the Red Sea

 

The National Interest

https://nationalinterest.org

The USS Harry S. Truman Has Left the Red Sea

May 22, 2025 — Truman is returning home after an extended Red Sea deployment, joint NATO drills, and combat operations—losing three F/A-18s during the mission 

 

It won't make a speck of difference after greenland, only before. Europe will be toast.

Bro the first link doenst show the video and the other links dont work again. 

 

52 minutes ago, Elliott said:

It won't make a speck of difference after greenland, only before. Europe will be toast.

Yeah they should act fast. Everyone is shaking from making a statement to the US. Well at least some European countries sent a few soldiers there on a mission symbolically. 

When the US takes Greenland, Nato will be gone and so will the support of the US for Ukraine right .. ? 

If European countries make a statement like a tarrif threat of all of NATO countries + combined if the US takes Greenland and it fails and Trump still takes Greenland, that is basically the same outcome as when Trump takes Greenland without resistance which would lead to the resolution of NATO anyway. 

Edited Saturday at 02:25 PM by Jannes

[Elliott]

3 hours ago, Jannes said:

 

When the US takes Greenland, Nato will be gone and so will the support of the US for Ukraine right .. ? 

U.S. support for Ukraine is already gone. Trump is currently on Putins side actually.

 

Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)

https://cepa.org

Wartime Assistance to Ukraine from the US and EU

2 days ago — With the United States stepping back from its military funding for Ukraine, Europe should develop innovative strategies to fill the gap

Quote

If European countries make a statement like a tarrif threat of all of NATO countries + combined if the US takes Greenland and it fails and Trump still takes Greenland, that is basically the same outcome as when Trump takes Greenland without resistance which would lead to the resolution of NATO anyway. 

The way it would probably work is Europe with China would sanction the u.s. on it's aggression toward Greenland. This would cause immediate reining in of Trump by our Senate, it would be over, congress would pass resolution that is already being debated right now to stay out of Greenland.

 

ABC News

https://abcnews.go.com

China says US shouldn't use other countries as 'pretext' to pursue its ...

5 days ago — China responded in kind on Monday, saying the United States should not use other countries as a “pretext” to pursue its interests in Greenland ..

 

 

NewsNation

https://www.newsnationnow.com

Canada's Carney says 'new world order' still being determined

19 hours ago — The Canadian prime minister raised eybrows when he referenced a "new world order" in a meeting with China

 

"Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said Wednesday he’d consider impeaching President Trump if the U.S. decides to invade Greenland, which he described as “utter buffoonery"- republican in solid maga state

Edited Saturday at 05:25 PM by Elliott

[Jannes]

2 hours ago, Elliott said:

U.S. support for Ukraine is already gone. Trump is currently on Putins side actually.

Trump and Putin are lovebirds. The investment of the US hasnt fully stopped, but its just a fraction of what it was before. 

https://usafacts.org/answers/how-much-foreign-aid-does-the-us-provide/countries/ukraine/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

This graph doesnt actually show the weapons, loans, intelligence, ... which adds about another 100 Billion the total 100 Billion USAID support.

In 2026 USAID it will be something like 400 Million plus 800 Million in military support. 

...

If US support stopped the biggest hit would probably be the loss of US intelligence. France can also provide, but not with the same quality. 

2 hours ago, Elliott said:

The way it would probably work is Europe with China would sanction the u.s. on it's aggression toward Greenland. This would cause immediate reining in of Trump by our Senate, it would be over, congress would pass resolution that is already being debated right now to stay out of Greenland.

Why do you think China would work together with Europe in sanctioning the US ?

[Jannes]

3 hours ago, Elliott said:

"Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said Wednesday he’d consider impeaching President Trump if the U.S. decides to invade Greenland, which he described as “utter buffoonery"- republican in solid maga state

Nice. 

Maybe in the time of need some unexpected friends arise. 

The military itself might even strike.

But we better not let it come to this.