Global Depression and Change!

[Ishanga]

So Zehan here is saying this:

- China is going to collapse within 10 yrs for many reasons, mainly not enough Young People to take over from old workers, with this 100's of Millions will die of starvation and poverty, and we lose the biggest manufacturing hub of the World and a large consumer base!

- AI is not going to change really anything, the energy it is going to take to power these things will not happen without massive infrastructure development and ppl suffering the power lose, water loss and other resources, there will be too much protest in the end for AI to go AGI and beyond..

- Energy will stay the same, coal based, nuclear on a mass large scale will not happen Yet, we don't have the infrastructure to make it happen, nor all the resources..

- Most everything shared in the media, the AI hype and Green Hype is all just Drama for them to get advertisers to pay for ads and them to make more money..

- Those in North America will be best off, if we can cooperate together not isolate from one another, the rest of the world is basically fucked in different ways of severity, China is worse off, Europe not so well off but better than China...

He preface it by saying if the new tech is invented and they find something that is helpful soon, things can change...

Sounds like Young people are going to have a hard time, whatever You believe will happen, Zehan or what others say, I don't see mostly anyone sharing anything positive about the future of this World, unless of course we raise Human Consciousness so that we don't see each other as "Other" but as a part of ourselves, I don't for see that happening anytime soon unfortunately!!

 

Edited yesterday at 03:11 PM by Ishanga

[Ishanga]

more of the same with Sam Harris and Zehan.,.

He's very process orientated, super researcher into the fine detail that most of us are unaware of or don't think of, but they exist...

Since he says globalization is on the downfall, and we don't have everything we need, no one does, certain places will get thru it better than others, and one will want to place themselves in the best place that can handle the changes coming!

 

[Wilhelm44]

15 hours ago, Ishanga said:

So Zehan here is saying this:

- China is going to collapse within 10 yrs for many reasons, mainly not enough Young People to take over from old workers, with this 100's of Millions will die of starvation and poverty, and we lose the biggest manufacturing hub of the World and a large consumer base!

- AI is not going to change really anything, the energy it is going to take to power these things will not happen without massive infrastructure development and ppl suffering the power lose, water loss and other resources, there will be too much protest in the end for AI to go AGI and beyond..

- Energy will stay the same, coal based, nuclear on a mass large scale will not happen Yet, we don't have the infrastructure to make it happen, nor all the resources..

- Most everything shared in the media, the AI hype and Green Hype is all just Drama for them to get advertisers to pay for ads and them to make more money..

- Those in North America will be best off, if we can cooperate together not isolate from one another, the rest of the world is basically fucked in different ways of severity, China is worse off, Europe not so well off but better than China...

He preface it by saying if the new tech is invented and they find something that is helpful soon, things can change...

Sounds like Young people are going to have a hard time, whatever You believe will happen, Zehan or what others say, I don't see mostly anyone sharing anything positive about the future of this World, unless of course we raise Human Consciousness so that we don't see each other as "Other" but as a part of ourselves, I don't for see that happening anytime soon unfortunately!!

 

These long term predictions are usually wrong, because unexpected positive changes are never anticipated. The brain leans towards negative predictions. But yeah, we need a big breakthrough in energy sources, to help make this planet liveable for everyone.

[Leo Gura]

I would not take anything Zeihan says seriously. He is such an over-confident blowhard.

Every time I hear him make his predictions with such confidence I cringe. The dude has not self-awareness about how many assumptions he's making.

Do not trust pundits to predict the future. This is a fool's game.

Edited 7 hours ago by Leo Gura

[Lyubov]

I guess as a pundit you need to make hot takes in order to get invited on podcasts? 

[zazen]

Agree with what Leo said also. Reading Zeihan's book years ago actually got me into geopolitics - found it all so interesting and devoured every podcast of his and other geopolitical analysts - but my understanding has matured since. He's overly confident and says things with too much certainty. He's good at pointing out vulnerabilities but then is too deterministic and overlooks the human factor. It's not just about the cards your dealt but how you play them. For example, his past work noted France and Argentina as being strong future powers due to their geography and demographics lol. We aren't only prisoners of geography but overcomers of it. Geography is the starting point not the end point.

He assumes America re-treating from policing the world leads to chaos as inevitable - which becomes a issue for trade dependent countries that depend on that stability of trade (via sea lanes). American exceptionalism seeps into a lot of his views and the hidden assumption is that without ''us'' people can't get along or are incapable of co-existence and diplomacy.  Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS, Belt and Road trade corridors and ASEAN neutrality doctrine oppose that view, as does history. Modern trade routes aren’t like 18th century pirate waters that need US defending them when we now have regional state actors doing so due to capability, cooperation and incentive to trade which they also depend on.

On his China collapse rhetoric. He assumes China doesn't plan long term and are just frozen. More importantly, they have a political system that allows them to be consistent in their approach to their long terms plans yet simultaneous quick enough to pivot, mobilize and adapt. That's why in the past he alarmed about the housing bubble (Evergrand) leading to China's collapse, before demographics would do the job. But China control demolitioned that bubble and directed lending and liquidity into strategic industry. They expedited that at rapid pace because of Biden and Trumps posture towards containing them via tech and trade wars. So they had to cut their vulnerabilities. That's why all of a sudden we see a explosion in multiple verticals being dominated - EV's (BYD), Green tech (solar, wind turbines), batteries, local semi-conducter eco-system, industrial robots and automation. That brings me to his point about demographics.

If a inverted demographic pyramid means collapse why hasn't Japan? One factor is they got rich enough before they got old enough - so that they could fund elderly care and pensions. They also have state capacity and cohesion to manage it. Ageing is managed and doesn't automatically mean collapse. Also, automation and robotics steps in to keep productivity high and replace labor.  And China leads in robotics and industrial automation: 

 The Chinese also have some of the highest domestic saving rates in the world which means less pressure on state funding. They also have cultural expectations of family care (like in much of Asia) - though that is strained because of urbanization and kids moving away from parents who remain rural. 

Europe is also old but unlike China it can't so easily reform pensions, raise retirement age or open doors to migration without backlash, and the norm of family care isn't what it used to be. The wealth they do have simply buys them time to manage the situation - but the math doesn't math and isn't sustainable without a decline in expectations and living standards (unless some AI breakthroughs?).  US demographics are healthier which buys it more time, and they absorb immigration very well (which MAGA strains as a option) - they face the same trajectory, only delayed. Aging societies require shared sacrifice - so if the US is polarized and divided then they may mismanage it. Like you said - Those in North America will be best off, if we can cooperate together not isolate from one another.

If Zeihan debated a few analysts that come to mind he would be shredded. One example:

 

Edited 3 hours ago by zazen

[Ishanga]

Yes anything can happen, he does say that with new tech and science discovery, things can change.. He does seem confident but he does seem to know the small details, history and modern day situations of many of his claims about China for example, but it is a big stretch to say they won't exist in 10yrs, we will have to see..

I use him and the other chinese guy Jiang as just way of learning about things I can't research myself deeply, no time for that, but they did it for me and then reveal what they find in their opinion.. Time will tell...