US pulling back from NATO and Europe

[PurpleTree]

The US administration is pulling back fron NATO and Europe.

Saying they will focus on their own country and the pacific/China.

Probably also on Israel.

 

I don’t mind the US leaving Europe.

 

But to do in the middle of a war with Russia and basically betraying Ukraine and giving all those concessions and compliments to Putin is crazy.

 

[fanta]

Trump administration is lost.

Looking in the comment section on social media, a lot of Americans have this egocentric view thinking everybody around the world are dependent on the nation. If US withdraws from NATO, they need to close their military bases all around Europe and withdraw their troops. That is a big L.

[PurpleTree]

 

 

I don’t like Bolton obviously but i think he’s right with his assessment here.

First Americans asked European NATO countries to spend 2% of their gdp on defence. Then 3.5 and now Trump is asking for 5%. Which is basically impossible. Trump knows that and is just looking for a way out of NATO.

The US spends around 3.5% on defence and their spending is crazy obviously. They bomb everbody. Pew pew

Edited February 14 by PurpleTree

[Raze]

I would love for everyone saying trump is betraying Ukraine to explain the alternative. Just keep funding the war until Ukraine literally runs out of men? There was no progress being made.

[Elliott]

8 minutes ago, Raze said:

I would love for everyone saying trump is betraying Ukraine to explain the alternative. Just keep funding the war until Ukraine literally runs out of men? There was no progress being made.

Ukraine has only lost 43,000, from an army of 2.2 million, Russia has lost 850,000 with only 1 million left. Russia's economy is on the brink, they're bound to overthrow Putin at some point, and end the war.

Edited February 14 by Elliott

[PurpleTree]

4 minutes ago, Raze said:

I would love for everyone saying trump is betraying Ukraine to explain the alternative. Just keep funding the war until Ukraine literally runs out of men? There was no progress being made.

Not making concessions to Putin before talks start. Not cozying up to Putin. Would be a start.

[Raze]

30 minutes ago, Elliott said:

Ukraine has only lost 43,000, from an army of 2.2 million, Russia has lost 850,000 with only 1 million left. Russia's economy is on the brink, they're bound to overthrow Putin at some point, and end the war.

The 43,000 comes from Ukraine, but they are hiding the reality to avoid demoralization. The US estimated Ukraine had 57,000 killed and a confidential source told WSJ they had 80,000 killed in September.

The 850,000 claim about Russia comes from Ukraine so they are likely exaggerating and includes killed OR wounded. If we are counting wounded then Ukraine’s number is also much higher.
 

Ukraine has done 10 mobilizations, Russia has done one. Russia has 1.5 soldiers and 2 million reserve, and has 4x the population as Ukraine.

The Russian economy grew in 2024 according to IMF and the world bank.

Edited February 14 by Raze

[Raze]

24 minutes ago, PurpleTree said:

Not making concessions to Putin before talks start. Not cozying up to Putin. Would be a start.

He isn’t making concessions, removing from the discussion to major threat Russia sees of Ukraine joining NATO allows for more good faith negotiations as Russia will see continuing as less a means of survival  

[Frylock]

Trump tonguing Putin's ass, what else is new.

[PurpleTree]

1 minute ago, Raze said:

He isn’t making concessions, removing from the discussion to major threat Russia sees of Ukraine joining NATO allows for more good faith negotiations as Russia will see continuing as less a means of survival  

Whatever man i’m happy for you.

[Elliott]

38 minutes ago, Raze said:

The 43,000 comes from Ukraine, but they are hiding the reality to avoid demoralization. The US estimated Ukraine had 57,000 killed and a confidential source told WSJ they had 80,000 killed in September.

The 850,000 claim about Russia comes from Ukraine so they are likely exaggerating and includes killed OR wounded. If we are counting wounded then Ukraine’s number is also much higher.
 

Ukraine has done 10 mobilizations, Russia has done one. Russia has 1.5 soldiers and 2 million reserve, and has 4x the population as Ukraine.

The Russian economy grew in 2024 according to IMF and the world bank.

 

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-moscow-drone-attacks-airports/33196578.html

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty November 24'

Quote

The U.K. puts the total number of Russians killed or injured at just under 700,000, which is roughly in line with Kyiv’s estimate of 708,890 as of Nov. 10.

You can't send farmers with pitch forks against bradley fighting vehicles. The support provided to Ukraine gives Ukraine the military advantage over Russia, it is not the 19th century anymore where you just need laymen and muskets. Europe is actively training Ukrainian civilians on modern equipment.

The Moscow Times

https://www.themoscowtimes.com › russi…

Russia’s Economy Is Spoiling as Putin Struggles to …

Nov 21, 2024 · With inflation already out of control, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina has warned that “drastic” policy changes may be needed, raisin

Edited February 14 by Elliott

[Raze]

32 minutes ago, Elliott said:

 

You can't send farmers with pitch forks against bradley fighting vehicles. The support provided to Ukraine gives Ukraine the military advantage over Russia, it is not the 19th century anymore where you just need laymen and muskets.

That isn’t happening. Russia captured over 1600 square miles in 2024.

32 minutes ago, Elliott said:

.

Russia’s Economy Is Spoiling as Putin Struggles to …

Nov 21, 2024 · With inflation already out of control, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina has warned that “drastic” policy changes may be needed, raisin

That doesn’t mean Russias economy will collapse and people will overthrow Putin.

https://archive.ph/67no4
 

Quote

Is Russia’s high inflation sustainable? In a typical emerging market, one of three problems arises. Sometimes high inflation can make it difficult for a country to service its foreign debts, as the currency depreciates. Yet Russia runs a large current-account surplus and has a healthy stock of net foreign assets, making such a scenario unlikely. Alternatively, spiralling inflation can push up interest rates, which raises the cost to the government of servicing its debt. Although Russian rates have indeed risen, the government’s debt is low, making debt-service costs manageable.

A third potential problem is politics. People, fed up with inflation’s impact on their quality of life, demand change. It is an open question whether Russia’s authoritarian rulers would switch course in the face of such grumbles. Regardless, people seem reasonably content with the economy, at least for the time being. In the past year household incomes have risen by 10%, after adjusting for inflation, with government payments and wages easily outpacing rising living costs. According to the Levada Centre, an independent pollster, consumer confidence is near an all-time high, while complaints about inflation are no higher than the long-run average. This is translating into how people spend their money. Real household consumption is at least 6% higher than it was a year ago, according to our analysis of official data.

 

 

Edited February 14 by Raze

[Raze]

Quote

The U.K. puts the total number of Russians killed or injured at just under 700,000, which is roughly in line with Kyiv’s estimate of 708,890 as of Nov. 10.

So its not 850,000
 

And the US estimates 57,000 Ukrainian forces killed and 250,000 wounded in October 

Edited February 14 by Raze

[Elliott]

31 minutes ago, Raze said:

So it’s not 850,000 like you said? 
 

And the US estimates 57,000 Ukrainian forces killed and 250,000 wounded in October 

700k was in November, 850 is 3 days ago.

There's also a difference in willingness to support the war, Ukraine is defending their homes, Russia is imposing imperialist expansion,. There will be more pushback in Russia, you can't kill off 30% of the population to gain something you don't need, whereas you can defending your homes.

Russia has a little more than 3x Ukraines population and they're losing troops at a rate of 3x more than Ukraine, let alone military equipment.

36 minutes ago, Raze said:

That isn’t happening. Russia captured over 1600 square miles in 2024.

That's not much land in this context, if that rate continued it would take about 50 more years to get to Kyiv, but Russia has been gaining less and less land each year.

36 minutes ago, Raze said:

That doesn’t mean Russias economy will collapse and people will overthrow Putin.

https://archive.ph/67no4
 

 

Right, but continued isolation combined with the human and monetary expense of the war is a dynamic where Russia cannot win with the west supporting Ukraine. This has a serious impact on Russia which makes it likely that Putin will be overthrown.

Edited February 14 by Elliott

[Rafael Thundercat]

World merge and divide like an ameoba, is just in such long timelines that we dont see the movement. Uniting and Dividing, alliing and being opponets. Tell me if Universe dont have fun in this game. 

[PurpleTree]

“Vance scolding Europeans about free speech”

Putin must be coming all over himself happily because of this US administration.

[Raze]

58 minutes ago, Elliott said:

700k was in November, 850 is 3 days ago.

Then the number is nonsense. They didn’t lose 150,000 in three months while Ukraine barely budged.

Ukraine hides demographic data to hide its casualties and exaggerated Russian casualties for morale.

The independent war correspondent Yurii Butusov reported that sources inside Ukraine’s military told him 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers are killed and 30,000 missing, far higher than Zelensky’s claimed 40,000.

It also is closer to UALosses which reported 63,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed.

https://archive.ph/Tys8X

The New York Times, and a Ukrainian non profit both verified their numbers as well.

similarly independent journalist analysis of Russian soldiers killed find 78-150,000

https://archive.ph/zxkae

So Russia is losing roughly 2 soldiers per Ukrainian loss.

58 minutes ago, Elliott said:

There's also a difference in willingness to support the war, Ukraine is defending their homes, Russia is imposing imperialist expansion,. There will be more pushback in Russia, you can't kill off 30% of the population to gain something you don't need, whereas you can defending your homes.

Polls find 50% of Ukrainians want a quick negotiated end to the war

https://news.gallup.com/poll/653495/half-ukrainians-quick-negotiated-end-war.aspx

 

58 minutes ago, Elliott said:

 

Russia has a little more than 3x Ukraines population and they're losing troops at a rate of 3x more than Ukraine, let alone military equipment.

 

Russias population is 143.8 million and Ukraines is 37 million. That’s 3.88x

Russia also still has more aircraft, artillery and land equipment then Ukraine 

58 minutes ago, Elliott said:

That's not much land in this context, if that rate continued it would take about 50 more years to get to Kyiv, but Russia has been gaining less and less land each year.

 

The point is Ukraine clearly doesn’t have the military advantage if it is losing land.

Quote

Russia advanced by almost 4000 square kilometres (1500 miles) in Ukraine in 2024, seven times more than in 2023

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20241231-russian-advances-in-ukraine-grew-seven-fold-in-2024-data-shows
 

58 minutes ago, Elliott said:

Right, but continued isolation combined with the human and monetary expense of the war is a dynamic where Russia cannot win with the west supporting Ukraine. This has a serious impact on Russia which makes it likely that Putin will be overthrown.

There isnt any indication of that happening. Russia is deepening ties with countries to get around sanctions and so far the population hasn’t been revolting.

case in point their economy grew:

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/russian-economy-grows-41-in-2024-surpasses-official-forecast-93CH-3856572

Quote

Russian economy grows 4.1% in 2024, surpasses official forecast

 

[Elliott]

33 minutes ago, Raze said:

Then the number is nonsense. They didn’t lose 150,000 in three months while Ukraine barely budged.

Ukraine hides demographic data to hide its casualties and exaggerated Russian casualties for morale.

The independent war correspondent Yurii Butusov reported that sources inside Ukraine’s military told him 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers are killed and 30,000 missing, far higher than Zelensky’s claimed 40,000.

It also is closer to UALosses which reported 63,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed.

https://archive.ph/Tys8X

The New York Times, and a Ukrainian non profit both verified their numbers as well.

similarly independent journalist analysis of Russian soldiers killed find 78-150,000

https://archive.ph/zxkae

So Russia is losing roughly 2 soldiers per Ukrainian loss.

Polls find 50% of Ukrainians want a quick negotiated end to the war

https://news.gallup.com/poll/653495/half-ukrainians-quick-negotiated-end-war.aspx

Those numbers are based off obituaries, surely you don't believe Russia is sending word back to families when their troops die.

 

Quote

Russias population is 143.8 million and Ukraines is 37 million. That’s 3.88x

Russia also still has more aircraft, artillery and land equipment then Ukraine 

The point is Ukraine clearly doesn’t have the military advantage if it is losing land.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20241231-russian-advances-in-ukraine-grew-seven-fold-in-2024-data-shows
 

There isnt any indication of that happening. Russia is deepening ties with countries to get around sanctions and so far the population hasn’t been revolting.

case in point their economy grew:

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/russian-economy-grows-41-in-2024-surpasses-official-forecast-93CH-3856572

 

Ukraine has the West for their equipment. And Just as Europe would not deplete their equipment for Ukraine, again Russia would not either being it is an offensive war for them, depleting Russia's military leaves them vulnerable to attack and especially their proxies like Assad for example.

Russia cannot use up their military on Ukraine, Ukraine can on Russia given that it is a defensive war for them, Ukraine ceding to Russia is the end of Ukraine, they can expend 100% of their military and not be in any worse position than they are now, If Russia would expend 30% of their military it would be catastrophic for them geopolitically given the impending long term isolation from the West, look at Iran, Russia will be in the same boat.

You cannot deny the dire state of the Russian economy, the GDP is only propped up by military spending. What gain can be had by more war in Ukraine? It's political poison even for Putin

Edited February 14 by Elliott

[Raze]

2 hours ago, Elliott said:

Those numbers are based off obituaries, surely you don't believe Russia is sending word back to families when their troops die.

The other analysis was on inheritance. Russia offers the soldiers payment for their families if they die to get them to join. So yes, they can’t just pretend the soldier is still alive when they can no longer talk to anyone they know back home for years.

2 hours ago, Elliott said:

 

Ukraine has the West for their equipment. And Just as Europe would not deplete their equipment for Ukraine, again Russia would not either being it is an offensive war for them, depleting Russia's military leaves them vulnerable to attack and especially their proxies like Assad for example.

Russia cannot use up their military on Ukraine, Ukraine can on Russia given that it is a defensive war for them, Ukraine ceding to Russia is the end of Ukraine, they can expend 100% of their military and not be in any worse position than they are now, If Russia would expend 30% of their military it would be catastrophic for them geopolitically given the impending long term isolation from the West, look at Iran, Russia will be in the same boat.

You cannot deny the dire state of the Russian economy, the GDP is only propped up by military spending. What gain can be had by more war in Ukraine? It's political poison even for Putin

Assad is gone.

Russia will prioritize Ukraine over anything else.

Ukraine ceding to Russia is not the end of Ukraine as they can negotiate to retain more of their land. Expending their entire military would mean Ukraine loses more soldiers and civilians, takes greater economic losses, and if they keep losing land worsens their negotiation position.

If Russia has nothing to gain why have they continued fighting?

Edited February 14 by Raze

[PurpleTree]