Both the professional forecasters and the pollsters were wrong about 2024!

[Hardkill]

 

Even Michael Moore, who correctly predicted every presidential election from 2008 to 2020 also predicted the 2024 election wrong:

 

Edited November 21, 2024 by Hardkill

[Raze]

Polls are a science but not an exact science, they give general trends. They are not perfect but more trustworthy than Alan Lichtmans system which was proven disastrously wrong and was always complete nonsense. 

[Yimpa]

[What Am I]

I think the constant environment of extremely negative discourse around Trump nudged many to be hesitant in vocalizing their support. This applies to regular people as well as major influencers. A few examples would be Lex Fridman, Joe Rogan, and Aubrey Marcus, along with so many others who are finally making their full opinions regarding Trump known. A really surprising example is Ana Kasparian. I'm sensing that she'd like to throw in her support and express her enthusiasm, but she's still a little afraid of the stigma that's developed over time.

So I believe it's for this reason that his actual popularity has come as a shock once again.

Edited November 21, 2024 by What Am I

[Hardkill]

54 minutes ago, Raze said:

Polls are a science but not an exact science, they give general trends. They are not perfect but more trustworthy than Alan Lichtmans system which was proven disastrously wrong and was always complete nonsense. 

You obviously didn't watch the vid I posted.

The polls predicted that Hillary Clinton would win both the popular vote and Electoral College easily in 2016, but she lost. Lichtman and Moore were the very few forecasters who correctly predicted that she would lose back then.

The polls in 2020, predicted that Biden would defeat in a near landslide (approx. 8%+ margin in popular vote and 370+ Electoral votes) including winning Texas and Florida. Yet, Biden won 306 Electoral Votes and won the popular vote by 4.5% margin. Lichtman and Moore predicted Biden would definitely win in 2020 months in advance. The FiveThirtyEight state polling aggregate also predicted that Biden would win Michigan by about 8% points and win both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by a much greater percentage than he actually did.

The polls showed that Harris would win the popular vote and probably eke out a win in the Electoral College. They were wrong. 

The polls predicted that Romney would the popular vote in 2012 against Obama, but Obama beat him easily winning the popular vote by 3.9% and winning the Electoral College decisively. Forecasters, including once again, Lichtman and Moore, predicted that Obama would win well ahead of the election.

Despite predictions of a disastrous outcome for the Democrats in the 2022 midterms, the Democrats actually secured a historic victory in the 2022 midterms overall, defying Biden's low approval ratings. Their win back then was among the greatest for an incumbent White House party in U.S. history!

Truman in 1948 was predicted by all of the pollsters and pundits to lose the presidential election and yet he too defied those predictions by not only winning another presidential term, but also helping his party successfully retake control of both the US House and US Senate in Congress after the 1948 general elections. It was a real slap in the face for the Chicago Tribune when they prematurely said in their headline "Dewey defeats Truman."

 

 

That's only a small set of instances of how many times the polls got it wrong.

Btw, even though Michael Moore again predicted this election wrong he also pointed out how many other times the polls and pundits were wrong: 

https://www.michaelmoore.com/p/stop-obsessing-over-the-polls

Professor Lichtman's 13 Keys system is by no means a perfect science, but his record is still undoubtedly unsurpassed by any other Model, Forecaster, pundit, or pollster out there.

Michael Moore also has had a better long-term record of predicting elections than virtually every pundit and pollster out there.

 

Edited November 21, 2024 by Hardkill