Investing 90k

[Nilas]

Hi, this seems like a weird place to ask my question, since I get the impression that most people here don’t even have a job, but I’m going to do it anyway

First off: I don’t want to debate whether there’s an AI bubble—I don’t doubt it. Even a blind person with a cane can see that.  

I want to invest 90k € (around 100k $) this year. This money is meant for my retirement, so I certainly won’t need it for the next 30 years.

I’m planning to invest in two broadly diversified global ETFs. The problem, though, is that even these ETFs are about 40% tech. And if the bubble bursts, other industries will be dragged down with it. 
My question is: Would you invest the money in a low-risk manner for another 1–2 years, hoping to buy stocks on the dip afterward, even at the risk of missing out on gains that might eventually make up for the crash in the long run?
Or would you just buy and forget about it for the next decade or so, since the gains will easily offset the initial loss?

 

 

Edited yesterday at 12:40 PM by Nilas

[Olaf]

@Nilas 

For long-term investments, I diversify my portfolio. I have higher-risk investments, such as certain altcoins and Bitcoin/Ethereum, as well as more conservative investments in the S&P 500, gold, and silver. Ultimately, it's up to you how much risk you want to take. Personally, my portfolio is about 70% conservative and 30% high-risk.

I've taken risks that completely wiped me out, so high risk doesn't always mean high reward, although it certainly can. Waiting for a dip could be a good strategy. Now that Bitcoin is in a bear market, I'm keeping some cash on the sidelines so I can invest when the trend reverses, which could happen at any time. I've also heard people recommend simply buying every month, even during a bear market, so you don't miss out on a potential bullish reversal. I think that's a good approach as well. You could spread your investments over 12 months into whatever higher-risk asset you want to invest in.

I didn't follow that advice. I bought Bitcoin at its peak because I was inexperienced, and I had to watch both the market and my investment decline for six months. I wouldn't recommend doing that.

[Nilas]

@Olaf

Thanks for your reply. So, the amount mentioned above is my risk portion.
However, I certainly won’t be investing in high-risk assets like Bitcoin. I’m also not interested in individual stocks; even the S&P 500 is far too undiversified for my taste, since it consists mainly of tech stocks and only US.

Gold ETF is an option, i will look into. 

Spreading investments over a 12- to 24-month period is a strategy I hear often, and one I'm seriously considering. 

 

 

[Elliott]

Depends on the tech, it says you're in Germany I would partly invest in EU tech stock, health tech too. Tech is always going to be what has growth, other industries are stagnant, EU defense is having a day right now..

Quantum computers are going to end crypto.....

Edited yesterday at 12:59 PM by Elliott

[Olaf]

@Nilas I can imagine Bitcoin or altcoins feeling like a big risk, which it is lol, I might be more of a gambler at heart. No investment is truly safe, like the S&P500 could go south, but the idea that an investment has been quite steady upwards for around 50 years makes me more relaxed investing in it. Gold is also good, but just a bit slow, like to me, Gold is very conservative, almost no risk, but also the gains aren't crazy, but always better than keeping it in some savings account. 

[PsychedelicEagle]

What you are asking for are ways to concentrate your allocation on non-tech stocks, relative to the market average.

You can achieve that by purchasing a global, fully-diversified ETF (e.g., VT) as base and on top of it buying non-tech ETFs, such that the total allocation is then concentrated on non-tech stocks.

A quick note: concentration assumes your understanding or information is more privileged than the capital-weighted average of the investors of the global stock market.

Edited 12 hours ago by PsychedelicEagle

[PsychedelicEagle]

On 7/17/2026 at 10:15 AM, Nilas said:

Or would you just buy and forget about it for the next decade or so, since the gains will easily offset the initial loss?

I would just buy and forget it. In fact that's what I do.

[PsychedelicEagle]

On 7/17/2026 at 10:15 AM, Nilas said:

two broadly diversified global ETFs

Btw, make sure these have low costs and replicate global, neutral allocation indexes, such as the VT ETF in the US or the VWRA ETF in Ireland. Otherwise, you will be concentrating on something, following the bias that the ETFs you invest in might have.

In other words, scrutinize the ETFs you plan to invest in, otherwise t hey may not fully replicate the global, "neutral" average, which by definition is complete diversification — what we want long-term.

Edited 12 hours ago by PsychedelicEagle

[PsychedelicEagle]

PS: I have a job.

[Leo Gura]

The odds of gold hitting $10,000 over the next 30 years seems inevitable.

Very long term, gold is the most safe and sure investment.

Just stack gold and don't look back.

If AI crashes, every stock will be cut in half at least. Gold will be hit too, but it will quickly recover.

The only thing we know for certain is that the US gov will print lots more dollars in the next 30 years. That's why gold is the safest bet there is, very long term.

The only safe investment if the market crashes will be cash or t-bills. Stocks are historically overpriced. Bad time to buy stocks. Do not buy high. Wait for a good opportunity.

Edited 11 hours ago by Leo Gura

[Leo Gura]

On 7/17/2026 at 1:15 AM, Nilas said:

I get the impression that most people here don’t even have a job

Most people here have jobs.

Edited 11 hours ago by Leo Gura

[Elliott]

There's an important distinction to make with Gold, gold is not used up and its mined, the price fluctuates tremendously but only because of stock market volatility not because of it's intrinsic value, gold's intrinsic value never really changes. So gold will have a generally inverse relationship with the market, but treating it as an investment rather than savings is assuming regular-extreme market volatility, and timing your sell. Gold can save you from inflation, but it's not going to grow organically like new industries. I would definitely hold gold over u.s. dollars right now though, not so much over Euros. Long term it's just a savings, not an investment.

 

 

You should usually buy gold when the economy is good but you see a glaring market pit(when a republican is elected). Everyone has been seeing the pit already since Trump was elected again(you're a bit late for it as more than a hedge). You should usually sell gold at the end of the "pit"(when Biden was elected on the chart, or halfway through Obama admin). Gold is about trading(timing) not investing.

 

My favorite area to invest right now is Brasil, an emerging economy.

There's always somewhere to actually invest(rather than savings/gold). Yes the u.s. market in general is going down the tube, but if you pick a winner in say Brasil, you will likely compensate for inflation(u.s. printing money) without even any actual growth in the Brasilian company, so long as they don't crash.

Just puting your cash in an etf and forgetting it is pretty crazy though, you'll do 'fine' but everyone should educate themselves in finance.

Edited 3 hours ago by Elliott

[Nilas]

 

9 hours ago, PsychedelicEagle said:

You can achieve that by purchasing a global, fully-diversified ETF (e.g., VT) as base and on top of it buying non-tech ETFs, such that the total allocation is then concentrated on non-tech stocks.

A quick note: concentration assumes your understanding or information is more privileged than the capital-weighted average of the investors of the global stock market.

Thats in fact what i am trying to do. And probably i try to outsmart somthing I can´t. Also i like easy finance, and putting together a portfolio from various ETFs isn't really my thing.

 

8 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

The odds of gold hitting $10,000 over the next 30 years seems inevitable.

Thats aroung 3-4 p.a, if i am not mistaken. That's good, but isn't really suitable for building wealth. I don't think I can avoid investing in stocks if I want to generate higher profits. But ja, maybe for the next 2-3 years until the marked corrects itself. 

[Leo Gura]

Gold could even hit $30,000 in 30 years.

Just try to imagine how much new dollars will be printed in 30 years!

[PsychedelicEagle]

6 hours ago, Elliott said:

gold's intrinsic value never really changes.

The key distinction here is productive vs non-productive assets.

When you own a stock, you own a claim on a stream of future value creation. A company generates value by transforming inputs into outputs that are worth more than the inputs cost. Do that once, take the profits, reinvest. Do that multiple times, over years and decades, and your profits compound.

Gold, on the other hand, sits stilll, doing nothing. It stores value but creates none, so any return depends purely on future demand for it.

[Olaf]

I would still choose S&P 500 over gold, but I also don't live in America, where they might print much more aggresively. The euro is my currency so for me S&P 500 would be better. It is where I have most of my money in.