Leo's amazing predictions

[Leo Gura]

24 minutes ago, Stick said:

It can just replace 70 pecent workers with the remaining 30 percent being overseers. As long as the code generated (or anything else AI produces) works, its gonna be utilized.

Even that is too optimistic.

A chatbot cannot replace 70% of jobs.

If 70% of jobs are replaced, you better be prepping for WW3.

Edited 4 hours ago by Leo Gura

[Carl-Richard]

18 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

But AI is not more intelligent than even a dumb human, even a teen.

AI is less intelligent than 100% of humans.

Notice that your logic assumes AGI. To be more intelligent than even the dumbest humans requires AGI.

Just because a chatbot piggybacks off 2000 years of human writing does not make it truly intelligent. It cannot operate without supervision and lots of correction. A chatbot is like a factory. It will work if you set it up perfectly, but this requires lots of effort and the tasks it does need to be very predictable and straightforward,

AI Chatbots are like calculators. If you give them the right input, they can perform the most incredible tasks a human could not perform in 100x the time. But it stops about right there.

[Greatnestwithin]

1 hour ago, Leo Gura said:

Even that is too optimistic.

A chatbot cannot replace 70% of jobs.

If 70% of jobs are replaced, you better be prepping for WW3.

@Leo Gura have you already move all your investment to gold and cash out?

[Leo Gura]

1 hour ago, Carl-Richard said:

AI Chatbots are like calculators. If you give them the right input, they can perform the most incredible tasks a human could not perform in 100x the time. But it stops about right there.

Yes, exactly. It is a tool that requires an expert tool-user with true intelligence and creativity.

I have no problem when a truly intelligent and creative person leverages AI to speed up work. That is healthy.

17 minutes ago, Greatnestwithin said:

@Leo Gura have you already move all your investment to gold and cash out?

I did most of that 1.5 years ago. But I still have a bit left in stock and crypto. I need to sell it all before it is too late. I was hedging my bet a bit. But even that hedge now looks too risky.

The crash could happen any day now. I would not be surprised if it happens tomorrow.

Edited 2 hours ago by Leo Gura

[Greatnestwithin]

28 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Yes, exactly. It is a tool that requires an expert tool-user with true intelligence and creativity.

I have no problem when a truly intelligent and creative person leverages AI to speed up work. That is healthy.

I did most of that 1.5 years ago. But I still have a bit left in stock and crypto. I need to sell it all before it is too late. I was hedging my bet a bit. But even that hedge now looks too risky.

The crash could happen any day now. I would not be surprised if it happens tomorrow.

@Leo Gura so you are more of cashing out and moving things into gold than re balancing your investment portfolio like to gold, debt etc

I imagine you pay taxes everytime you cash out there in the usa right?

[Leo Gura]

29 minutes ago, Greatnestwithin said:

@Leo Gura so you are more of cashing out and moving things into gold

Yes.

Warren Buffet is majority cash right now. He's been that way for 2 year. So have I.

Being fully vested in this stock market is suicidal. At bare minimum you should be 50% non-equities.

Quote

I imagine you pay taxes everytime you cash out there in the usa right?

Yup. If you made a profit.

I would rather pay tax than sit through a 50% collapse.

Edited 1 hour ago by Leo Gura

[StaraX]

1 hour ago, Leo Gura said:

Yes.

Warren Buffet is majority cash right now. He's been that way for 2 year. So have I.

Being fully vested in this stock market is suicidal. At bare minimum you should be 50% non-equities.

Yup. If you made a profit.

I would rather pay tax than sit through a 50% collapse.

@Leo Gura What do you think of real estate investments, such as residential houses? Is it a legitimate way to achieve financial independence, assuming one knows what he or she is doing?

[Leo Gura]

7 minutes ago, StaraX said:

@Leo Gura What do you think of real estate investments, such as residential houses? Is it a legitimate way to achieve financial independence, assuming one knows what he or she is doing?

In general that's very good. But right now the USA housing market is inflated, so I would not buy real estate before the AI bubble crashes. Wait till the AI hype dies down. You will find much better deals. Wait a few years.

Edited 19 minutes ago by Leo Gura

[ZenSwift]

1 hour ago, Leo Gura said:

Being fully vested in this stock market is suicidal. At bare minimum you should be 50% non-equities.

So, basically, me having 95% of my savings in Canadian ETFs is me being a fool right now? 

(I'm in Canada. But I assume markets are too closely tied to USA)