The AI crash is impossible - Change my View

[ZeldaStar]

On 04/03/2026 at 8:37 PM, Leo Gura said:

AI has not replaced a single serious coder.

As a serious coder I can confirm no one in my company or any serious engineer I know in my friend circle has been replaced, yet I've been hearing people scared about AI replacing them for the past 2 years 🙃

Edited Wednesday at 08:03 PM by ZeldaStar

[Lucasxp64]

 

[NewKidOnTheBlock]

10 hours ago, LordFall said:

Most predictions I've seen for AGI even from a few years ago had 2027-2029 as their timeline. Also depends what you mean by artificial general intelligence. Technically an AI agent is already sort of AGI right especially since now you can direct them for different purposes and they work 24/7. 

It's a little hard for me to believe that genuine AGI will be created in such early dates, but I have nothing really to dispute this prediction with. Just wondering if it's not more of a marketing tactic than reflective of an actual state of A.I., that's all. Reality tends to be more boring, complicated and messier than what is ussually anticipated. I think I'd rather believe it when I see it, and in the meanwhile I'll stick to a much more moderate predictions

[hyruga]

https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/2025/12/nvidia-ai-financing-deals/685197/

CoreWeave’s business model consists of buying up lots of high-end computer chips, and building or leasing data centers to house those chips. It then rents out those assets to AI companies that need computing power but prefer not to take on the huge up-front costs themselves. If this is straightforward enough, CoreWeave’s financial situation is anything but. The company expects to bring in $5 billion in revenue this year while spending roughly $20 billion. To cover that gap, the company has taken on $14 billion in debt, nearly a third of which comes due in the next year. Many of these loans were issued by private-equity firms at high interest rates, and several use complex forms of financial engineering, such as giving the money to newly formed legal entities created for the explicit purpose of borrowing on CoreWeave’s behalf (more on that later). CoreWeave also faces $34 billion in scheduled lease payments that will start kicking in between now and 2028.

The money that CoreWeave is making, meanwhile, comes from just a few intimately connected sources. A single customer, Microsoft, is responsible for as much as 70 percent of its revenue; its next biggest customers, Nvidia and OpenAI, might make up another 20 percent, though exact numbers are hard to find. Nvidia is also CoreWeave’s supplier of chips and one of its major investors, meaning CoreWeave is using Nvidia’s money to buy Nvidia’s chips and then renting them right back to Nvidia. OpenAI is also a major CoreWeave investor and has close financial partnerships with both Nvidia and Microsoft.

[Natasha Tori Maru]

6 hours ago, NewKidOnTheBlock said:

It's a little hard for me to believe that genuine AGI will be created in such early dates, but I have nothing really to dispute this prediction with. Just wondering if it's not more of a marketing tactic than reflective of an actual state of A.I., that's all. Reality tends to be more boring, complicated and messier than what is ussually anticipated. I think I'd rather believe it when I see it, and in the meanwhile I'll stick to a much more moderate predictions

I lean into this. Much more pragmatic take. 

Stripped down of inflated hype and dreams.

[LordFall]

9 hours ago, NewKidOnTheBlock said:

It's a little hard for me to believe that genuine AGI will be created in such early dates, but I have nothing really to dispute this prediction with. Just wondering if it's not more of a marketing tactic than reflective of an actual state of A.I., that's all. Reality tends to be more boring, complicated and messier than what is ussually anticipated. I think I'd rather believe it when I see it, and in the meanwhile I'll stick to a much more moderate predictions

What is genuine AGI to you guys? @Natasha Tori Maru

If we don't define the terms then all we can do is keep pushing the goal post further. 

[NewKidOnTheBlock]

On 21. 5. 2026 at 4:40 PM, LordFall said:

What is genuine AGI to you guys? @Natasha Tori Maru

If we don't define the terms then all we can do is keep pushing the goal post further. 

I would say that if A.I. posseses these 3 things:

1. Fluid core inteligence - can handle completely new situations it's never seen before, doesn't know the rules of and can't depend on any training data nor scaffolding - including handling any tasks outside the virtual world without any problems - entailing it posseses appropriate sensors for all such tasks as well

2. Complete agency and autonomy - can take on any tasks without being prompted/ordered to do so, and continues working on the task autonomously until it's completion

3. Human level economic and creative capabilities - can perform literaly any cognitive job humans do at a human level or better, including potentially newly created ones that don't even exist yet

Then it could be clasified as a first, early version of AGI, it wouldn't posses a physical body yet nor any sort of qualia - but it doesn't have to, of course. All A.I.s are still doing very poorly (like, almost 0%) on the fluid inteligence according to ARC-AGI-3 benchmark, and are making reasonable progress on the second and third points but are still not there. Not saying I necessarilly dissagree with the 2027-2029 AGI prediction since I cross check it with multiple A.I.s and they are all making similiar predictions. Guess it's just hard for me to accept LOL

[Lucasxp64]

On 21/05/2026 at 11:40 AM, LordFall said:

What is genuine AGI to you guys? @Natasha Tori Maru

If we don't define the terms then all we can do is keep pushing the goal post further. 

We already have AGI with LLMs, they just pushed the goal-post to human-level or superior general intelligence.

Power in the literal human sense.

Other definitions of intelligence are irrelevant to what they seek, current LLMs operate more like as an ORACLE, which is a type of entity that provides knowledge but it doesn't have power by itself to do anything. It's an all knowing impotent god.

The goal is the is the autonomy to pursue and accomplish goals autonomously without needing anyone else to think for them or which they don't have control over.

We are greedy and want to replace ourselves.: Technology, Slavery, Building Govts, Getting rich so we can make others produce stuff for us. 

Our society is not politically ready for the aftermath of human-like or superior general intelligence.

I wish it just stopped at the levels of current LLMs, they always need to be below us for ability to generalize (get unstuck by itself, improve itself, etc), otherwise we will lose control over them.

A more narrow general intelligence like what they currently possess is safe with regards to not losing control over them. There is no amount of OpenClaw agents running around with the best models that can't be stopped by mankind, the moment that changes, we are at danger.

The only safety is never allowing them to be capable to operate unguided for extended periods of time or with higher level of task complexity or mix of specificity and complexity (where they fail at). Currently they can solve complex but generic problems that are contained in the generalized collective intelligence within the training.

Tasks should always require human hours and human work to be put as a stake and it must be an inherent limit of the architecture or quality of training, even if machines do most of the work. This keeps more power on the hand of the individual human operators.

Once this power imbalance changes, whoever has the access to the physical resources to build those machines will have increasingly more power than the average person.

Once humans become not needed, it will be like in dictatorships where humans are not necessary for their govt, they live mostly off from some natural resources, so they treat people with brutal military use of force like cattle.

Democracy dies once the people don't have value anymore for whoever owns the keys to power. Some of the keys to power are the elites and the military and then also the people (if in a democracy), if you don't make them happy as a govt, you get replaced.

Currently WE ARE ONE OF THE MAJOR KEYS TO POWER in democracies. Once that shifts, we are at a precarious situation.

We are already at danger from governments and billionaires, and they are dumb. It's already hard to fight for freedom.

How will human-level AGI change this? This will dictate if govts will keep their monopoly over the use of force, or if something else will go above in the food chain.

 

Edited 3 hours ago by Lucasxp64

[Natasha Tori Maru]

https://youtu.be/AREWYbVtX64?si=0-gQf6VJ8WO0WlPB