US strikes on Iran seemingly imminent

[Raze]

There were rumors israel was planning on attacking Iran again, however it was reported Israel indicated to Iran through Russia they would not attack them, Iran agreed to not strike them.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/01/14/israel-iran-russia-secret-messages/

However then protests erupted in Iran and Israel seemingly activated sleeper cells, Israeli officials now admit they armed protestors 

It’s reported at least 100+ Iranian security forces were killed and Iran cracked down hard with reports of 500-2000 killed protestors. 

A pro-Israel group is claiming it is 12-20,000 but there is no evidence of this.

Trump said he would air strike Iran if the protestors were fired on and said they crossed his red line and has cut off diplomatic communications with Iran. 

Reports are that currently no one in the White House is telling him not to strike with Rubio (major israel lobby recipient) urging him to air strike Iran.

 

 

However gulf states and Turkey are apparently urging him not to for fear Iran will strike their territory due to their US bases and Irans regime collapse could turn into a failed state and civil war like Syria causing a massive refugee crisis. Most Syrian refugees ended up in the gulf states, turkey, and Europe, Israel accepted essentially none.

Currently Israel is reportedly saying they expect the US to strike however actually cautioned strikes as they fear the regime isn’t currently weak enough that strikes would collapse it.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-want-military-action-iran-swift-decisive-sources-say-rcna254076
 

Quote

President Donald Trump has told his national security team that he would want any U.S. military action in Iran to deliver a swift and decisive blow to the regime and not spark a sustained war that dragged on for weeks or months. But Trump’s advisers have so far not been able to guarantee to him that the regime would quickly collapse after an American military strike and there is concern that the U.S. may not have all the assets in the region it would need to guard against what administration officials expect would be an aggressive Iranian response. Those dynamics could lead Trump to approve a more limited U.S. military offensive in Iran, at least initially, while reserving options to escalate — if he decides to take any military action at all, said the U.S. official and one of the people familiar with the discussions.

Polling data finds most Americans are against strikes as of now 

Edited 7 hours ago by Raze

[LordFall]

I'm very curious what the airstrikes aim to accomplish, this video breaks down why intervening in Iran is much more difficult than Venezuela.

They can try to kill the leadership or go for the oil fields, those are the two objectives that make sense. What will come after will be chaos though. 

The best case scenario I've heard is Reza Pahlavi coming back to the country as a symbol to oversee a democratic election taking place. 

[Raze]

11 minutes ago, LordFall said:

 

The best case scenario I've heard is Reza Pahlavi coming back to the country as a symbol to oversee a democratic election taking place. 

that is so absurd even trump doesn’t believe that will happen 

[LordFall]

What do you think makes that so unthinkable? It all depends really how far the US is willing to go with their attack on leadership. 

[Raze]

5 minutes ago, LordFall said:

What do you think makes that so unthinkable? It all depends really how far the US is willing to go with their attack on leadership. 

Iran never even attempted to assassinate him because he is so disliked and unpopular. He has next to no on the ground support in Iran. Even his wife publicly cheats on him.

You can’t just bomb a government out of office and install someone like that and have elections.

If it’s a targeted assassination of the clerical leadership the result may be that the IRGC takes over if they are weakened enough.

If it’s a mass bombing that somehow makes the IRGC also unable to grip power then Iran would enter a failed state / Syria situation as all the different groups splinter off.

I’m suspecting it’ll be another semi-symbolic strike that doesn’t change much, even Trump may not be dumb enough to be tricked by his advisors into thinking they can decisively topple the regime with just airstrikes, that’s obviously a ploy by israel to bait Iran into firing back forcing the US to expand the intervention into a full scale war. John Bolton did this exactly insisting to trump to assassinated the general and when they did and Iran fired at the bases tried to get trump to escalate but trump refused. 

Edited 5 hours ago by Raze

[LordFall]

This video makes a good point that it's probable that the IDF will try to assassinate Ali Khamenei probably tomorrow. It would basically condemn the clerical regime and benefit everyone in the region including satisfying the people. All the incentives align towards getting rid of him. 

[Raze]

2 hours ago, LordFall said:

This video makes a good point that it's probable that the IDF will try to assassinate Ali Khamenei probably tomorrow. It would basically condemn the clerical regime and benefit everyone in the region including satisfying the people. All the incentives align towards getting rid of him. 

That guy is a CIA agent who repeatedly provides cover for the US a deep state.

Khamenei isn’t the only clerical leader, he is 86 and already has the succession lined up. His death does not automatically remove the clerical power base.

If the clerical regime goes the only powerful enough group to replace it is the IRGC which will likely be even more brutal and extreme, for example Khamenei repeatedly refused to weaponize the nuclear program despite IRGC hardliners demanding it. 

Edited 3 hours ago by Raze