Pakistan vs Afghanistan

[BlueOak]

Something being ignored in Western News.

Pakistan is striking Afghanistan, there were skirmishes last year and early this year, but there was a break until now.

Current Info: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Pakistani_airstrikes_in_Kabul 
Previous Info: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghanistan–Pakistan_clashes_(2024–present)

Light summary of it:

I could not find an in-depth video of it, because its largely not being covered.

I also want to say this is how China potentially becomes the world police. Then 50 years from now people will vilify them.

Edited Friday at 06:46 AM by BlueOak

[zazen]

It all kicked off from this earlier in the week: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/eleven-pakistan-paramilitary-troops-killed-ambush-by-islamist-militants-sources-2025-10-08/

At the same time Afghanistans Taliban visited India to bolster ties which isn’t the best of optics:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8exzzz5dp5o.amp

That’s not to say there’s coordination - just that India’s hostility towards Pakistan may sway Taliban to act differently, sandwiching Pakistan from the other end by getting involved in covert ops. India army chief was just sabre rattling last week against Pakistan questioning its existence on the map : https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/will-erase-from-map-wont-exercise-restraint-army-chief-warns-pakistan-9389206/amp/1

The group who did the initial attack are distinct form Taliban but are a Pakistani that are offshoot ideaologically similar called TTP (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan). They operate cross border between Afg-Pk which is porous and go into hiding on the other side when the military clamps down to find them in hideouts etc. Not easy to handle as this becomes guerrilla territory.

There’s more fighting tonight across the border line but hard to tell who’s involved as the Taliban Gov are now responding to Pakistans strikes within their territory, which was supposedly aimed at TTP leaders/members in theirs. What a mess.

Edited Saturday at 08:35 PM by zazen

[BlueOak]

@zazen Thanks for adding some depth. With Pakistan sandwiched against two now hostile forces, I would guess it depends if China wants to intervene to stabilize it, they've given Pakistan a security guarantee, and Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are in a defensive alliance. Everyone is using this moment of high world tension to settle old grudges.

Afghanistan has made a large, multiple incursion along the border now. Allegedly, all seven Pakistani border outposts, to be confirmed. Heavy fighting, as shown in a clip here:

 

17:07, 19:20, 21:20. 23:55 etc for the actual battles.

*This is what happens when nuclear weapons are no longer an effective deterrent to war. I squarely blame Russia for overusing nuclear threats and diminishing the impact of them.

Edited Sunday at 07:17 AM by BlueOak

[Twentyfirst]

On 10/10/2025 at 9:30 AM, BlueOak said:

 

I also want to say this is how China potentially becomes the world police. Then 50 years from now people will vilify them.

It wouldn't make sense for China as a global leader to act in the same behaviors as USA when it was a global leader. Mostly because China is not USA and USA is not China

Power doesn't behave in the same way regardless of who is in power. It only behaves in the way the people wielding it want it to behave

[BlueOak]

23 minutes ago, Twentyfirst said:

It wouldn't make sense for China as a global leader to act in the same behaviors as USA when it was a global leader. Mostly because China is not USA and USA is not China

Power doesn't behave in the same way regardless of who is in power. It only behaves in the way the people wielding it want it to behave

True. 

Then X number of years from now the world will be different, and the acting authority will be overthrown. 

Any power assuming the role of authority over other countries experiences this dynamic. So the question is does China walk into this role here? Does it press its authority and power outward to stabilize the situation, or does Saudi Arabia honor its military alliance with Pakistan, and then it's a larger regional conflict?

The other possibility is the USA comes back to the airbase Trump wants so much in Afghanistan and uses it as an excuse, which I am sure will weigh into China's decision.

Edited Sunday at 08:31 AM by BlueOak

[BlueOak]

The rare earth struggle between superpowers probably explains some of this action. Pakistan contracted with the US. I don't know the exact timeline, so its either just after or just before.
 

His conclusions are somewhat exaggerated but could well explain this initial violent reaction and some of the politicizing I've seen recently around the topic.

Edited 4 hours ago by BlueOak