Freedom from oppression through decentralized finance

[LordFall]

Great conversation on the potential of DeFi to not only empower people but fundamentally free them. If you can make your own money and store it securely then the ability of authoritarian structures to oppress you drops by like 90%.
 

Think of all refugees having had to flee their country in the past 50 years and cross a border into a foreign land with basically 0$ to their name! Crazy that people made it, I’m proud of them but let’s leave that to the past. 

That plus AI agents leaves me extremely optimistic for the future and the empowerment of the individual and eventually our species as a whole. 

Edited July 15 by LordFall

[Lucasxp64]

It will also free the world's economy from the economic imperialism imposed by the US Dollar the world's reserve currency. Every country in the world, not just people is ripe right now to ditch the dollar.

Read my post. This rabbit hole of the US Dollar being used for international trade is the nastiest and most impactful geopolitical global economic fact of the 21st century. The USA went on practically an economic HEIST after the Second World War. Even here in the Forum I can't believe people are not making connections with every problem we currently have with those details directly. Read the author Michel Hudson, he is a economic genius outside of the junk. @Leo Gura should read him if he didn't do so.

https://www.goodreads.com/author/list/26855.Michael_Hudson

 

 

[Twentyfirst]

Dave Ramsey finally admitted after 16 years that BTC is portfolio safe lmao

[Lucasxp64]

8 minutes ago, Twentyfirst said:

Dave Ramsey finally admitted after 16 years that BTC is portfolio safe lmao

😂 After the early investors became millionaires working at starbucks.

The rule of the game is to first understand the rules.

But I must admit I lost the bandwagon of BTC speculation, I won't be able to join the parasitic financial capitalist class anymore with BTC, since even a Dave Ramsey thinks it is safe. No more 100x return coming, it would have to engulf the world's economy for that to happen due to the current trillion dollar market capitalization.

But I think what is actually safe and maximize profit is to understand the rules of the game.

 

 

Edited July 19 by Lucasxp64

[Twentyfirst]

On 7/19/2025 at 6:16 AM, Lucasxp64 said:

😂 After the early investors became millionaires working at starbucks.

The rule of the game is to first understand the rules.

But I must admit I lost the bandwagon of BTC speculation, I won't be able to join the parasitic financial capitalist class anymore with BTC, since even a Dave Ramsey thinks it is safe. No more 100x return coming, it would have to engulf the world's economy for that to happen due to the current trillion dollar market capitalization.

But I think what is actually safe and maximize profit is to understand the rules of the game.

 

Sorry friend, not in the headspace to watch that video. Im on a break from all that but I saved it

The BTC culture has gotten rotten for sure but I still think you can get a 100x from 100k to 10m. Why not? Just needs a few decades. It's highly probable that it will hit a 10x to 1m without having to speculate too much. It will engulf a lot of the world's economy simply because it's a superior asset class. People just need time to understand it more and get comfortable with it. Nobody likes new things 

[Lucasxp64]

On 21/07/2025 at 9:49 AM, Twentyfirst said:

It will engulf a lot of the world's economy simply because it's a superior asset class.

That's a great point. Also I forgot that the world's economy can also increase, so the purchasing power of a bitcoin holder in decades might hit those marks.

But even a 10x is already great. I think for someone with a higher risk profile like me, holding bitcoin as part of my investment portfolio will be a good strategy.

By trying to look at bitcoin within someone's investment portfolio with "modern portfolio theory" (that one that they try to average out risks and volitivity to optimize the risk-benefit ratio) 

The macroeconomics trend I realized of bitcoin, is that when people have disposable income and the world markets are being flooded with speculation, bitcoin feels kinda like a multiplier/leverage of the market sentiment, but it also is uncorrelated in a lot of ways.  At least that was the case back in 2021 bullrun.

But also, other crypto would get a trickle down of the bitcoin, being highly correlated with the inflow of money into bitcoin, kinda bitcoin being the gateway drug into the "blue chip" coins, the money gets trickled down into other crypto currencies, and due to their smaller market cap, it's yet another multiplier/leverage.

And then, of course, there are the coins with much smaller market capitalization that will give some crazy 100x returns within a year but with massive volitivity and high risk of crashing down due to capital flowing away from them, and everyone just abusing them for quick gains.

If someone has a pet prefered shit coin, I'd NEVER advise them to go all in into it, and have a reasonable portfolio. People in the crypto space are too risky/greedy and they go too much all in.

Doing dollar cost averaging, doing portfolio management and anything else to smooth out the risks and loses is the fundamental.

Bitcoin/crypto "bubble" feeling comes from the same market dynamics for any kind of innovation, there is the Frenzy, there is the new core technology from which new companies and inventions will arise, etc.

I was talking recently to an AI exactly about the superstructure of those market dynamics and how for example we can map that into the "AI revolution" and the "Creator economy" (Which Leo Gura managed to get into early on).

I was trying to understand better bubbles, so I can know how to position myself in the market as a professional or as a business, or as a content creator, etc.

The money isn't just made by the chasing of the primary asset: I.e.: The gold Rush, you are better off selling shovels than pandling for gold.

 

Quote

Excellent question. You have correctly diagnosed a key feature of technological revolutions and moved us to the next logical step: how to analyze the anatomy of a bubble in real-time to identify strategic opportunities.

Your intuition is perfectly aligned with the theory. The "getting rich by making apps" era was a classic, miniaturized version of what **Carlota Perez** calls the **Installation Period Frenzy**. The App Store was the new, cheap infrastructure (like canals or railways in previous eras) that unleashed a wave of frantic, speculative development.

Let's formally dissect this phenomenon using Perez's framework and other supporting theories, then apply it to recent bubbles.

### **The Formal Framework: The Anatomy of a Bubble**

A technological bubble is not just irrational madness. According to Perez and economic historian **Charles P. Kindleberger** (*Manias, Panics, and Crashes*), it's a predictable process where financial capital detaches from the "real" production economy to fund the rapid, chaotic build-out of a new techno-economic paradigm.

Within any bubble, we can identify a distinct ecosystem stack. Money pours into the top (financial capital) and, as you astutely noted, "trickles down" through these layers, creating different types of opportunities at each level.

Here is the **Bubble Ecosystem Stack**:

*   **Layer 0: The Core Protocol / Platform.** This is the foundational technology that enables the entire paradigm. It is fundamentally new infrastructure. The risk here is existential (will this new standard be adopted at all?), but the reward is monopolistic (becoming the next TCP/IP, iOS, or Ethereum).
*   **Layer 1: The "Shovels & Pickaxes" (Enabling Tools & Infrastructure).** This is the layer that profits from the *activity* generated by the bubble, regardless of who wins. It includes the tools, platforms, and services necessary for the "gold miners" to operate. This is often the most reliable way to profit from a bubble if you are not the Layer 0 innovator.
*   **Layer 2: The "Gold Miners" (Applications & Speculation).** This is the most visible layer, where thousands of actors rush in to build applications or speculate directly on assets using the new technology. Competition is brutal, and the failure rate is astronomical, but the fantasy of a massive "gold strike" (like building the next Instagram) drives the frenzy.
*   **Layer 3: The Ancillary Services (The Saloon, General Store, and Assayer).** This layer services the *people and companies* participating in the bubble. It thrives on the complexity, information gaps, and new needs created by the ecosystem. It requires the least technical knowledge of the core protocol but deep understanding of the community's needs.

Now, let's apply this formal stack to recent and current bubbles.

---

### **Case Study 1: The Crypto Space (c. 2011 - Present)**

This is a textbook example of a Perezian installation frenzy, still in progress.

*   **Phase:** Deep in the Installation Period. It has experienced multiple boom-bust cycles, which is typical. The "trickle-down" of venture capital and speculative retail money is extremely visible.
*   **Layer 0 (Protocol):** Bitcoin (as a new store of value protocol), Ethereum (as a new smart contract/decentralized computing platform). Opportunity here was for early visionaries and developers building the core clients and proposing EIPs (Ethereum Improvement Proposals).
*   **Layer 1 (Shovels):**
    *   **Exchanges:** Coinbase, Binance. They profit from every trade, win or lose. A pure "shovel" play.
    *   **Hardware:** Nvidia (GPUs for mining), Ledger/Trezor (hardware wallets).
    *   **Developer Tools:** Infura (API access to Ethereum), Chainlink (oracles providing off-chain data).
    *   **Opportunity:** Building the essential infrastructure that every developer or user needs. Less speculative than holding a single asset.
*   **Layer 2 (Gold Miners):**
    *   **Assets:** Countless altcoins and tokens (from Cardano to Dogecoin).
    *   **Applications:** DeFi protocols (Aave, Uniswap), NFT projects (CryptoPunks, Bored Ape Yacht Club), GameFi.
    *   **Opportunity:** Immense but with a >99% failure rate. Requires identifying a specific, valuable use case before the market does, or being exceptionally good at building community and hype.
*   **Layer 3 (Services):**
    *   **Media & Analysis:** Newsletters (The Milk Road), analytics sites (Nansen, Dune Analytics), influencers.
    *   **Education:** "Crypto courses," security audit firms for smart contracts (CertiK).
    *   **Legal/Finance:** Specialized crypto tax software and accounting firms.
    *   **Opportunity:** Monetizing the information asymmetry. As the space gets more complex, the demand for trusted guides, auditors, and commentators grows.

### **Case Study 2: The Creator Economy (c. 2016 - Present)**

A bubble driven by the convergence of social media platforms and the desire for individual monetization.

*   **Phase:** Shifting from Installation to early Deployment. The infrastructure is largely built, and the focus is on creating sustainable businesses.
*   **Layer 0 (Platform):** YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, Substack, Patreon. These platforms provide the core infrastructure for audience aggregation and monetization.
*   **Layer 1 (Shovels):**
    *   **Software Tools:** Video editing software (Descript), link-in-bio tools (Linktree), newsletter platforms (ConvertKit), course platforms (Teachable).
    *   **Hardware:** High-quality cameras, microphones (Shure), lighting.
    *   **Opportunity:** Building better, more specialized tools for serious creators who are willing to pay to improve their workflow and monetization.
*   **Layer 2 (Gold Miners):**
    *   The creators themselves. From huge stars like MrBeast to niche Substack writers. They are speculating with their time and effort to build an audience (an asset).
    *   **Opportunity:** High risk, requires a unique blend of talent, charisma, and operational discipline. The market is massively saturated.
*   **Layer 3 (Services):**
    *   **Agencies:** Talent management for creators, video editing services, thumbnail design services.
    *   **Consulting:** YouTube channel consultants, growth strategists.
    *   **Finance:** Companies providing financial products specifically for creators with uneven income (e.g., Karat).
    *   **Opportunity:** Providing the "boring" business infrastructure that creators often lack the time or skill to build themselves. This is a massive B2B opportunity.

### **Case Study 3: The AI Revolution (c. 2022 - Present)**

We are in the *very* early, most chaotic moments of this installation frenzy. It is the most important bubble happening right now.

*   **Phase:** The "Big Bang" of the Installation Period. Financial capital is pouring in based on the breakthrough of Large Language Models (LLMs).
*   **Layer 0 (Protocol):** The foundational models themselves. OpenAI's GPT series, Google's Gemini, Anthropic's Claude. These are the new "rails." The opportunity here is largely confined to a few massive, well-funded research labs.
*   **Layer 1 (Shovels):**
    *   **Hardware:** **Nvidia.** They are the ultimate shovel seller of this revolution, providing the GPUs necessary for training and inference. Their stock price reflects this.
    *   **Cloud Platforms:** AWS, Google Cloud, and Azure, offering access to this hardware and managed AI services.
    *   **Developer Tools:** Hugging Face (the GitHub of AI models), LangChain (framework for building LLM apps), vector databases (Pinecone).
    *   **Opportunity:** Building the tools that make it easier, cheaper, and faster for the thousands of developers in Layer 2 to build their products. This is the most strategic place for a skilled developer to be right now.
*   **Layer 2 (Gold Miners):**
    *   Thousands of startups building thin wrappers around the OpenAI API. AI copywriting tools (Jasper), AI code assistants (GitHub Copilot), AI meeting summarizers, etc.
    *   **Opportunity:** The market is currently flooded. Lasting success will require moving beyond a simple "wrapper" and integrating AI into a unique workflow, with proprietary data or a specific distribution advantage.
*   **Layer 3 (Services):**
    *   **Education:** "Prompt engineering" courses, corporate AI strategy workshops.
    *   **Media:** AI-focused newsletters and YouTube channels curating the latest developments.
    *   **Consulting:** AI implementation consultants for enterprises, AI ethics and safety advisors.
    *   **Opportunity:** The information gap is enormous. People and companies are desperate for guidance. Explaining the revolution to the rest of the world is a massive business opportunity.