Leo's amazing predictions

[Ero]

19 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

@Joshe The problem I have with the arguement you guys are making here on AI is that you are trying to win the argument on narrow technical ground: "Leo hasn't used LLMs to code, so he doesn't see how useful it is." But this muddles a larger point. The larger point is that even that AI will underperform in the long-run when all factors are taken into account.

I concede the point that I have not coded with AI. I am looking at the big picture.

If you actually took the time to study "technical" topics, you would quickly realize that while the "big picture" is freshman systems thinking 101, the graduate course-equivalent is understanding dynamical systems, phase transitions, heavy-tailed events, etc, all of which have local to global dynamics. 

All the shit that popped the previous bubbles - real estate, dot com, railway, was literally the straw that broke the camel's back - the minor details. It took Michael Berry sifting through all the credit swaps. 

The causes for the phase transitions, such as a "bubble pop" you cannot infer from your "big picture" high horse.

If you got off it and started doing the work instead of calling it "minutia", you would stops being black and white in your thinking, and you gain the nuance that both AI is a bubble due to mismatch in Capex and Revenue (ref) and AI is gonna upend everything you know.

[Joshe]

45 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

@Joshe The problem I have with the arguement you guys are making here on AI is that you are trying to win the argument on narrow technical ground: "Leo hasn't used LLMs to code, so he doesn't see how useful it is." But this muddles a larger point. The larger point is that even that AI will underperform in the long-run when all factors are taken into account.

I concede the point that I have not coded with AI.

The argument is that your confidence in your estimation was built from a very shallow understanding of what AI is. You're extrapolating from "chatbot". If you have no real-world understanding of agentic coding, you can't begin to reason about AI's value intelligently.

About a month or two ago you claimed AI couldn't code this forum, and I'm guessing you still believe this based on things you've said here. And you're just wrong and refusing to update, no matter how many people tell you you're wrong. 

As an experiment, spin up Fable 5 right now and say "recode actualized.org's forum. No questions. Just get it done." 

Watch what happens. Then ask "how powerful would this tool be in capable hands?"

"Fable 5, build an Excel clone". This is now possible by one human. 

So you have two choices. Collect proof that I'm right and update, or tell me (a daily claude code user who follows multiple senior SWEs) and everyone else using these tools that none of us know wtf we're talking about.

Edited 3 hours ago by Joshe

[Ero]

Even your system thinking is high school level. 

Tier 2 Epistemology my ass. 

If you actually had internalized Spiral Dynamics or Wilber's holarchies (an actual spiritual intellectual who did the homework unlike you) instead of regurgitating, you wouldn't be making such ignorant statements.

Reality is nested holarchies (self -> family -> tribe -> country) with influences across every level. That's why "big picture" alone is not enough.

Zoom out of Earth long enough and it's a speck of dust. That's where you are right now, on your high horse. 

 

Edited 3 hours ago by Ero

[Leo Gura]

47 minutes ago, Ero said:

If you actually took the time to study "technical" topics, you would quickly realize that while the "big picture" is freshman systems thinking 101, the graduate course-equivalent is understanding dynamical systems, phase transitions, heavy-tailed events, etc, all of which have local to global dynamics.

Of course I know that.

That doesn't mean you won't get lost in local details at the loss of the big picture. I don't deny that local details affect the big picture, just that people are using the local details to get the wrong picture. There is no generic solution to this problem. It's all depends on case-by-case.

Quote

All the shit that popped the previous bubbles - real estate, dot com, railway, was literally the straw that broke the camel's back - the minor details. It took Michael Berry sifting through all the credit swaps. 

The causes for the phase transitions, such as a "bubble pop" you cannot infer from your "big picture" high horse.

That's way too oversimplified.

Quote

 you gain the nuance that both AI is a bubble due to mismatch in Capex and Revenue (ref) and AI is gonna upend everything you know.

I have not said otherwise.

You are looking for things to argue with me over now.

Edited 2 hours ago by Leo Gura

[Leo Gura]

54 minutes ago, UnbornTao said:

Did you learn to admit your failure? Start doing that yourself. 

If you cannot learn to admit whenever you're plain wrong after several years, you're fooling yourself about the class you're in.

You take me for an idiot.

It it amazing you still do that after everything I taught.

Edited 2 hours ago by Leo Gura

[Uddi]

@Leo Gura They are making less than 10% of what they need for this investment in AGI to be considered "reasonable". Those who think AI has real understanding are completely clueless about the syntax to semantics gap. They are having a profit loss of over 90% I think. I get super annoyed when people ignore the fact that this AGI hype is a bubble. The data center surge has gone too far at the point of badly damaging the environment and the economy. I am glad more and more people are rejecting this bullshit half baked hollow hype on a house of cards.

Edited 35 minutes ago by Uddi
Needed to add more stuff.