Thailand and Cambodia War

[BlueOak]

Previous thread:

The peace plan has collapsed, and now the two sides are intent on war. 

If I had to guess, its because America is no longer backing the region strongly and China is pushing its influence outward.
More things change, the more they stay the same.

Are we happy with this 'heroically masculine' 'multipolar' (Chinese) world yet? Or do we all need another year or two of war to make a better pattern? 2026 to 2027 is meant to be the big one.

Edited Tuesday at 02:39 PM by BlueOak

[Lyubov]

Multi polar worlds lead to war. China is going to fill in where the US is retracting and you can def expect more of these conflicts, more proxy wars, etc. 

[zazen]

From that old thread:

On 27/07/2025 at 8:07 PM, zazen said:

Wow, enforcers videos are amazingly good at granular analysis - first time seeing them.

All the above - I think it’s temple/land dispute, internal politics and external realpolitik of great power meddling to de-rail China’s BRI / regional development and rise. So it’s not an either or situation but a this and situation.

This guy I follow is a ex Marine living in Thailand and does great geopolitical analysis. I initially thought he overweighted US’s role and that could be his bias (overlooking internal politics / agency) but a older video of his came with some receipts on how the US intervenes in those “internal” politics:

The first 20 min and from 30 minutes onwards is good.

 

The latest video is covering the current flare up with Cambodia:

 

On 28/07/2025 at 11:48 AM, zazen said:

BRI’s Pan-Asian high speed railway network bypasses the Malacca straight and integrates the region economically. The US want to “contain and encircle” China just like Russia - whether by land or sea. That’s the great game grand strategy at play in the backdrop of granular internal politics that can be endlessly observed, analysed and kept track of.

The China containment pivot began with Obama and has continued through Biden and till Trump - continuity of agenda of Empire / Deep State policy which no “Democratic vote” will or can ever change - that is above the “people’s” pay grade who only ever get to vote for candidates that differ on social-cultural issue's but rarely on national security / foreign policy issues that their own citizens must die for.

Something must already exists in the first place to be opportunistically pulled on - a grievance or dispute.

China is approaching its first land based supply chain that would make the Malacca chokepoint redundant. It doesn't align with China's incentives to want to de-stabilise or cause issues here - but it does for the US's overall containment strategy against China.

Same guy shared this about the recent flare up and the new National Security Strategy: https://x.com/BrianJBerletic/status/1998661988164186204

The "New" US National Security Strategy, Same as the Old

"so when we look at the rise of the Chinese military, what our goal in the joint force is to create multiple, simultaneous dilemmas for ALL of the adversaries around the world, so that they are very cautious and concerned about doing something that would bring any sense of threat to the American people [read: American interests abroad]."

Here is the current chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff admitting that the US is pursuing an "Extending Russia" policy against ALL designated US adversaries, including Russia, China, and Iran. This strategy has served as the basis of US foreign policy for decades, and is the foundation neo-conservative driven US hegemony has been based on.

Beyond deliberately misleading corporate media headlines, inside the halls of corporate funded think tanks, the truth is admitted openly in forums they know the general public and even many commentators will never hear or see.

Listen from 10 min - 14 min (the quoted / emboldened part is at 10 min 30 sec).

Interesting 4 minutes. Another quote:

''Are we in an AI arms race with China? I think I think there's the possibility that we end up in an AI arms race. I think we could end up in a variety of different things because technology is developing so fast. And what I'm trying to create with my other joint chiefs who are here is our ability to win from the seabed up to CIS lunar space and beyond and to create more dilemmas for other people than they create for us. And I think we can totally do that if we take the best of the military plus the best of the intelligence community plus the best of our allies and partners plus the best of the private sector coupled with Congress and others and private capital and public capital coming together. We can build the force that will allow us to maintain the dominant position that we have on the globe and deliver peace through overwhelming strength, which is what our people deserve.''

''And that's going to require the best of the military, the best of the Congress, the best of the private sector, and the best of not just the defense industrial base, but the national industrial base.''

This is what we can see happening. It's also in line with Project 2025 - where they discuss burden sharing and ''division of labor'' among allies as Peter Hegseth has said many times.. The grand strategy is re-shore critical supply chains and bolster industrial bases to be self sufficient (which is a good thing) - but if the end intention is that this means they can then go to war (it becomes bad).

Also - them wanting Europe to be strong (upping military spending etc), doesn't mean them wanting Europe to be sovereign. They want their partners and allies strong yet subservient to US strategic interests and strategy - that strength is tied to the US orbit (economically, militarily, geopolitically and technologically via a US dominated tech stack).

This also is in line with the Monroe Doctrine 2.0 as discussed in the new national strategy and correlates with actions we are seeing with Venezuela, Greenland etc: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf

''we want a Hemisphere that remains free of hostile foreign incursion or ownership of key assets, and that supports critical supply chains; and we want to ensure our continued access to key strategic locations. In other words, we will assert and enforce a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine''

 

The US deep state permanent class isn't just a single ''blob'' but multiple blobs (Tech, Finance, three letter agencies, MIC). That's why the West hasn't always had coherence or long termism - because of short political time horizons and divergent interests - the system is rigged for private trans-national interests rather than a national purpose (of national development and geopolitical strength from the ground up). Those interests are constants regardless of who's president, but they also are in constant negotiation and bargaining - interests can diverge or align. What seems to be happening now is that they are aligning much more coherently due to geopolitical pressure - towards this grand strategy seeks dominance across domains - and the key thing that is a multi-domain multiplier is AI. Which is why all are coming together on a sort of war footing and piling into AI like the Manhattan project. This is why they have they just recently announced the Genesis mission - https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/11/launching-the-genesis-mission/

Why I emboldened private capital:

Edited 16 hours ago by zazen
Cleaning up bad grammar

[zazen]

New vid from the GOAT:

“The expanding drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure represent a long-term U.S. strategy aimed at weakening Russia and constraining China’s rise through an emerging, de facto energy blockade."

[Elliott]

1 hour ago, zazen said:

From that old thread:

Something must already exists in the first place to be opportunistically pulled on - a grievance or dispute.

China is approaching its first land based supply chain that would make the Malacca chokepoint redundant. It doesn't align with China's incentives to want to de-stabilise or cause issues here - but it doesn't for the US's overall containment strategy against China.

Same guy shared this about the recent flare up and the new National Security Strategy: https://x.com/BrianJBerletic/status/1998661988164186204

The "New" US National Security Strategy, Same as the Old

"so when we look at the rise of the Chinese military, what our goal in the joint force is to create multiple, simultaneous dilemmas for ALL of the adversaries around the world, so that they are very cautious and concerned about doing something that would bring any sense of threat to the American people [read: American interests abroad]."

Here is the current chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff admitting that the US is pursuing an "Extending Russia" policy against ALL designated US adversaries, including Russia, China, and Iran. This strategy has served as the basis of US foreign policy for decades, and is the foundation neo-conservative driven US hegemony has been based on.

Beyond deliberately misleading corporate media headlines, inside the halls of corporate funded think tanks, the truth is admitted openly in forums they know the general public and even many commentators will never hear or see.

Listen from 10 min - 14 min (the quoted / emboldened part is at 10 min 30 sec).

Interesting 4 minutes. Another quote:

''Are we in an AI arms race with China? I think I think there's the possibility that we end up in an AI arms race. I think we could end up in a variety of different things because technology is developing so fast. And what I'm trying to create with my other joint chiefs who are here is our ability to win from the seabed up to CIS lunar space and beyond and to create more dilemmas for other people than they create for us. And I think we can totally do that if we take the best of the military plus the best of the intelligence community plus the best of our allies and partners plus the best of the private sector coupled with Congress and others and private capital and public capital coming together. We can build the force that will allow us to maintain the dominant position that we have on the globe and deliver peace through overwhelming strength, which is what our people deserve.''

''And that's going to require the best of the military, the best of the Congress, the best of the private sector, and the best of not just the defense industrial base, but the national industrial base.''

This is what we can see happening. It's also in line with Project 2025 - where they discuss burden sharing and ''division of labor'' among allies as Peter Hegseth has said many times.. The grand strategy is re-shore critical supply chains and bolster industrial bases to be self sufficient (which is a good thing) - but if the end intention is that this means they can then go to war (it becomes bad). Also - them wanting Europe to be strong (upping military spending etc), doesn't mean them wanting Europe to be sovereign. They want their partners and allies strong yet subservient to US strategic interests and strategy - that strength is tied to the US orbit (economically, militarily, geopolitically and technologically via a US dominated tech stack).

This also is in line with the Monroe Doctrine 2.0 as discussed in the new national strategy and correlates with actions we are seeing with Venezuela, Greenland etc: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf

''we want a Hemisphere that remains free of hostile foreign incursion or ownership of key assets, and that supports critical supply chains; and we want to ensure our continued access to key strategic locations. In other words, we will assert and enforce a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine''

 

The US deep state permanent class isn't just a single ''blob'' but multiple blobs (Tech, Finance, three letter agencies, MIC). That's why the West hasn't had coherence or long termism - because of short political time horizons and divergent interests - they system is rigged for private interests rather than purpose (national development and geopolitical strength). Those interests are constants regardless of who's president, but they also in constant negotiation or bargaining - their interests can diverge or align. What seems to be happening now is that they are aligning towards this grand strategy which feels the pressure to remain dominant across domains - and the key thing that is a multi-domain multiplier is AI. Which is why all are coming together on a sort of war footing and piling into AI like the Manhattan project. This is why they have they just recently announced the Genesis mission - https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/11/launching-the-genesis-mission/

Why I emboldened private capital:

Ya, this looks more like u.s. meddling rather than China's M.O..

Hegseth is going to wind up starting WW3. If the u.s. is involved here, China will know it.

Edited 16 hours ago by Elliott