BlueOak

The left has a spectrum bigger than any other political dynamic. There is every voice on the left, including what you suggest and worse, all the way through to very harsh border enforcement. By virtue of how far right the world has shifted, there is this space.

As for the tomahawk propaganda: @zazen GPT Answer, as I wanted it to break down all weapons in Ukraine. Short answer: practically no — there’s nothing Ukraine is currently being supplied by the West (or fielding itself) that comes pre-configured to carry a nuclear warhead. The old Tomahawk did have a nuclear variant in the Cold War, but that variant was retired and modern Western-supplied missiles in use today are conventional only. Wikipedia+1 Explanation / key points (with sources) Tomahawk history — nuclear variant existed, but it’s retired. The BGM-109 family once included a TLAM-N (nuclear) variant that carried a W80 warhead. That TLAM-N was taken out of service (the US retired TLAM-N decades ago) — the Tomahawks discussed for use in Ukraine today are the conventional Block IV / Block V types. Wikipedia+1 Other Western missiles sent to Ukraine are conventionally armed. Weapons often discussed or supplied to Ukraine — e.g. MBDA’s Storm Shadow/SCALP, US ATACMS/MGM-140, JASSM family, naval antiship missiles, LR-SAMs etc. — are designed and fielded as conventional weapons, not as nuclear delivery systems. Western nuclear warheads are part of national nuclear forces and are tightly controlled; they are not exported as a routine capability. Wikipedia+2Missile Threat+2 Nuclear warheads are not something states transfer lightly — legal and political constraints. The NPT / non-proliferation norms and alliance practices (e.g., NATO “nuclear sharing” keeps US warheads under US control) mean that transferring operational nuclear warheads to a partner would be an extraordinary, escalatory political decision — not a technical detail. In practice that’s why Western states do not supply their conventional missiles with nuclear warheads to third parties. NATO+1 What about Ukrainian/Soviet-era missiles? Some Soviet systems had nuclear-capable variants — but Ukraine doesn’t possess warheads. Soviet-era systems (for example the OTR-21 Tochka family) had nuclear-capable variants on paper; some cruise missiles like the Soviet Kh-55 were built to carry nuclear warheads. However, Ukraine voluntarily gave up the Soviet nuclear warheads it inherited after the USSR collapsed (the 1990s transfers and the 1994 Budapest/Trilateral arrangements), and the country does not possess nuclear warheads today. There have been historical proliferation incidents (e.g., reports Ukraine transferred some Kh-55 airframes in the 2000s, reportedly without warheads), but that is very different from having an intact national stockpile of warheads that could be mated to missiles. Wikipedia+2Arms Control Association+2 Could any missile be converted if a nuclear warhead were supplied by a nuclear state? Technically, some cruise or tactical ballistic missiles can be fitted to accept a nuclear warhead if a state chooses to design, test and certify such a pairing — but that is a major engineering and political action (requires the warhead, integration work, safety/permissive-action systems, testing, and authorisation). In short: the only realistic route to make any Ukrainian launcher deliver a nuclear blast would be a deliberate transfer of a nuclear warhead (and the associated political/legal decision) by a nuclear-armed state — an act that would massively escalate and violate non-proliferation norms. Wikipedia+1 Bottom line (plain): Tomahawk: historically had a nuclear version → retired; modern Tomahawks are conventional. Wikipedia+1 Storm Shadow, ATACMS, JASSM, Neptune, Harpoon, etc.: conventional only in operational use for Ukraine. Wikipedia+2Missile Threat+2 Ukraine: does not possess nuclear warheads today (gave them up in the 1990s). Some Soviet-era missiles were capable of carrying nuclear warheads on paper, but without warheads that capability is moot. Arms Control Association+1

@zazen @Breakingthewall Reality doesn't care what I want, or you want. It doesn't care what Russia or Ukraine want, it just is. Russia will collapse unless it gets heavy bailouts. Again, draw a downward line; the pattern is that simple to understand. It cannot avoid that if it continues with its current policy. Ukraine will very slowly lose land, that's a reality. I.E Russia needs to negotiate, like Ukraine does. Ukraine offered a ceasefire at the current negotiations; Russia refused. Though there are plenty of hard realities Ukraine would need to accept as well, but it is willing to sit down and start. Currently, Russia won't recognize Ukraine as a state, it's literally said so again yesterday. Won't recognise Zelensky, or that it won't occupy the territory it demands (till 2030), or that Ukraine will never demilitarize, just like Russia won't. So there will never be peace with Putin in power; he won't even sit down with him. What that means is Russia collapses if Putin lives. This is where I draw that conclusion from. Now, what does a collapse mean? No fuel on the front. Breakaway Russian regions. Internal conflict. You may think the Russians will tolerate war, not when they are starving and homeless they won't. When they can't pay their soldiers, you think there are soldiers there keen to be fighting? They are there for the huge windfalls they were promised and are now not receiving already. Not when there is no money to draw from the bank and everything costs a fortune. That's when the government collapses, as you can't pay the police or services or army. There are multiple independence movements in Russia ready to break. China is keeping the economy afloat, but its still going downward because it can't carry the entirety of its country on its back. It can buy it up and has been doing so, slowly making Russia a proxy of China, but it's a band-aid on parts of the country (eastern). On manpower. Drones > Manpower now. Ukraine is doing more with less. Russian casualties are estimated at five times those of Ukraine in the current suicidal armored pushes. Probably those 35k Cubans being wiped out. There is another scenario. Russia starts a general mobilisation, which would still be a death knell to its economy and uprisings, only faster. Or Europe cuts off Ukraine, but this last one is highly unlikely. Not least of which, because Putin was dumb enough to involve Europe as much as possible, firing threats every other week to inspire fear, to inspire defense, to inspire a stronger NATO response etc. On money. Ukraine doesn't need America. It needs money, yes, but not the states.To be honest, in Europe we are better off without America, as their obvious path is to fascism. I don't see enough indicators that this is going to be halted short of a corrupt democracy (or democracy in name) which is difficult to work with as an ally, as bribes winout. There was an insane drone and cruise missile barrage today of mostly Ukrainian origin, made up of Ukrainian drones and missiles with a few Stormshadows. As a response, no doubt to Putin just dragging out negotiations and people telling them they can't win. (Some say Trump gave the go-ahead to punish Russia for making him look bad) The win is Russia's economic collapse; it's always been that. At least the Russian stockmarket is back in freefall, now the stupid delaying tactic courting Trump has been realised for what it is, a stupid delaying tactic. The third time Trump's fallen for it

Anything is 'good' or 'bad' from different perspectives. It's the limitations of a stage green approach. One day someone will tell me the limitations of yellow more often :), but I think AI sits in the yellow space, at least when I interact with it. When I interact with it, I get long modeled and objective information or data sets. Because i've asked for that. I can formulate questions from the AI with guardrails that increase my capacity to understand something; why would I not use it? It takes my initial thought and/or modelling or framing; it then takes me checking it for consistency, which by the way, its relatively bad at. Maybe 90%-95% of the time it's consistent if you ask for multiple outputs of specific data sets, which is actually relatively poor and way below what most would achieve on the same task. Though this will improve, I feel. I would say the limiting thing for me is, I will never be shown a stage turquoise approach and thus never elevate anything I post unless I directly ask for it. BTW you can too, ask for a stage yellow, turquoise or green spiral dynamics approach and framing to your question. You could ask for something beyond this too, but that would be more ill defined.

Thank you for laying out the landscape. I understand the concept of nodes linking together. And these being in the millions or billions surrounding a certain subject, perhaps even infinite as you suggest. If it's self-organising, then it needs to organise around the simple set of rules I aligned above but there is a better way: it can constrain the infinite possibility space down to a finite number of relevant things - so what it pays attention to, And when these things are referenced, this is when they become relevant and actionable. You don't impose rules on infinity; you impose rules on what's being acted upon. Additionally, I feel you underestimate the AI's ability to diagnose itself or other AI's ability to do so. You've already referenced that AI's can be put into certain ways of acting like Grok. Chat GPT is limited, i've seen features removed. I've seen replica AI limited in the past also. *Further I don't believe an infinite, unlimited AI is particularly helpful, as we enter Asimov's final question territory, and additionally, infinity is our death state as in free of limitations or focus. I don't mean that in an alarmist way, I mean it in a functional way.

Here is what I originally thought: an exaggerated claim with reasonable sourcing for its overall message. @Breakingthewall 3.20 Here it's sourced that the Russian railways' profit has dropped from 118 billion to 13.9 billion. I thought this 90% drop an exaggeration and was going to say even if it was half of this, that's still huge, and before this latest round of refinery hits are ongoing, which is what's nose-diving things. Allegedly 35 billion dollars in debt, but I haven't verified that last claim. Russian Railways Profit Drop (Sources & Context) Recent reports indicate that Russian Railways’ (RZD) net profit fell from 118.3 billion rubles in 2023 to 13.9 billion rubles in 2024 — a decline of nearly 90%. Sources: TRACECA News — “What impact did the war have on Russian Railways?” https://traceca.ge/en/news/whatimpactdidthewarhaveonrussianrailways?utm_source=chatgpt.com The Moscow Times — “Russian Railways furloughs staff amid freight traffic slump – RBC” https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/08/04/russian-railways-furloughs-staff-amid-freight-traffic-slump-rbc-a90092?utm_source=chatgpt.com RailFreight.com — “From staff shortage to layoffs in a year: Russian Railways to cut workforce” https://www.railfreight.com/business/2025/10/20/from-staff-shortage-to-layoffs-in-a-year-russian-railways-to-cut-workforce/?utm_source=chatgpt.com RailFreight.com — “Russian Railways net profit vanishes” https://www.railfreight.com/railfreight/2025/03/10/russian-railways-net-profit-vanishes/?utm_source=chatgpt.com Caveats & context: These figures refer to net profit (after interest, taxes, and other costs) under Russian accounting standards. No official RZD financial statement publicly available yet confirms these exact figures line-by-line; the data is drawn from press briefings and RBC-reported leaks. Analysts attribute the collapse in profit to declining freight volumes, sanctions, rising debt-service costs, and export disruptions. The figures reflect broader strain across Russia’s transport sector rather than a total collapse of operations. I asked it to verify the claims I could not locate a publicly accessible RZD annual report (2024) that clearly lists the net profit for 2023 as 118 billion rubles. The “118 billion” figure appears in press statements/analyses but not in a verified financial statement I found. The detailed breakdown of how much of the drop was due to interest expenses, tax, extraordinary items etc., is not available from the sources I found. Some sources quote “15 billion rubles” or “around 15 billion rubles” as 2024 net profit, which is consistent with ~13.9 billion but indicates rounding/variation. RailFreight.com 🔍 My conclusion (GPT's) The claim “net profit dropped from ~118 billion rubles to 13.9 billion rubles” has strong support in multiple independent reports for the 13.9 billion number for 2024. However, the starting figure of ~118 billion rubles in 2023 is not clearly verified by a primary source I located. Without access to the full official audit/annual report, one should treat the 118 billion figure as plausible but not confirmed with full transparency. If you like, I can try to dig into Russian-language filings of RZD (e.g., via Moscow Exchange disclosures, government submissions) to find a definitive “net profit 2023 = 118 billion” number. Would you like me to do that?

You are correct that numbers are hard to lock down. And I've only had video sourcing. I will correct that with a more sourced and unbiased account, bearing in mind that this was the picture BEFORE Ukraine started hammering the economic output of Russia. Which is the main point. Most of these articles are in the previous months. Reuters: Russian Railways to cut management jobs as economy slows, Interfax says https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/russian-railways-cut-management-jobs-economy-slows-interfax-says-2025-10-17/?utm_source=chatgpt.com Reuters: Russia plans rail transport discounts to support coal industry, letter shows https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-plans-rail-transport-discounts-support-coal-industry-letter-shows-2025-05-13/?utm_source=chatgpt.com Reuters: Russian Railways to cut spending by around 40% in 2025, says finance chief https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russian-railways-cut-spending-by-around-40-2025-says-finance-chief-2024-12-05/?utm_source=chatgpt.com RailJournal: Russian rail freight drops to historic low https://www.railjournal.com/financial/russian-rail-freight-drops-to-historic-low/?utm_source=chatgpt.com Independent/FOI memo: Structural issues in Russian railways https://www.foi.se/rest-api/report/FOI Memo 8833?utm_source=chatgpt.com Novaya Gazeta Europe: Off the rails (report on Russian rail stagnation) https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2025/07/04/off-the-rails-en?utm_source=chatgpt.com I want you to put everything aside and focus on what a four day work week means in practical terms, wipe 20% off everyone's pay check. Let's be generous and say the price of everything only goes up another 20%, this would be me being very optimistic for the Russians, as they've kicked the can down the road on these problems, and they've no fuel for imports, their workforce is dying off, and they've no industry but war (which has no intrinsic return) and nothing to fund it, several hundred thousand wounded or criminals to carry. So the reality is going to be worse, but let's stick with this in the unlikely event things don't snowball. (As they do in recessions, one failure leads to another, and another etc then add a war to it!) Can you afford 40% out of your paycheck to disappear? In what I will call an optimistic scenario. Let's say you get bailouts from others etc. We'll take a balanced scenario. 60%? We'll take a pessimistic scenario of 80%? I mean what is the breaking point, considering the trajectory is only getting worse? That is the pattern. Its not improving. If I show you a line downward anyone can see its not going to have a positive outcome. To be fair the line is present globally, right, its just not a problem that's being stacked up like Jenga blocks in other countries, and when the war ends Europe will be dusting off with barely anything to worry about but energy costs. Meanwhile Russia will be left in whatever state its in clawing itself out of a hole.

Let's start with the facts: Oil facilities are repeatedly hit. As are deposits, pipelines, infastructure, pumping stations, etc. Each time it gets progressively harder to repair them, as the damage stacks up and the parts run out, each time they come back online they are hit again. There is focus rather than breadth to these attacks, that's why 19 were selected, not 19 strikes but hundreds on these 19 or their surrounding areas. Even with knock-off chinese components now used in place of Russian war, which tend to break down eaiser, refineries are going down. They are also going down now because they can't do the necessary repairs or operate them at the same level with Chinese ad hoc tech replacements. Your video is a lie. Queues are in most areas of the country. What has happened is the work week was reduced, so there is less need for gas, but also less money, and as such the economic nosedive is increasing. (This is part of what I mean when I say they are digging a bigger and bigger hole, also with junk bonds, printing money etc). Ukraine doesn't need Tomahawks; they'd just speed up the resolution of the war. They already produce their own missiles and drones, and this capacity has been encouraged and raising greatly. They said one missile a week at the start, now its estimated that its close to 1 a day, and going up (Though don't quote me on it being 3 a week or 13 a week, data is sketchy, only that its going up) Someone mentioned near 99% of attacks are carried out by Ukranian weaponry. This may seem unbelievable, but factor in most are done by drones that cost 500-2,500 dollars, not multi-million dollar expensive Tomahawk-type Western tech. What those tomahawk missiles would do, is end the refinery rather than let it be crippled over and over. But tbh Trump is very anti his weapons being used in Russia, so its sort of a mute point and done for publicity more than anything. Still it'd be nice to hit more russian command posts in the rear. Pokrovsk is costing Russia more than i've ever seen. And i've seen 100's of tanks taken out at a crossing early in the war, or the suicidal armored column that tried to breach Kyiv at the start. Its up there in terms of Russian losses. Its not near encircled; that would mean units were all around it. Russia is held by drones at the villages, because drones rule the battlefield (both ukranian and russian drones), this means any advance is cripplingly slow and costly. Russia can just move things to other regions? What things? Its exports are toast. They are going up in flames and they don't have the fuel to move them. Its exports are fuel! It can move crude sure, where its deposits are not being targeted in the east, leaving nothing for itself, and for a fraction of what refined or gas is worth. This just leads to the country going further and further into the hole. China can keep buying it up and lending it money, and so can India. That just prolongs the decline. Russia is doomed. If they don't change the pattern or get Trump to bark at Ukraine enough they are finished. Maybe they will surprise me with a pattern change, its happened before, but so far I've seen no evidence of it. I predicted a war between democracies and autocracies due to the rise of nationalist sentiment and things like fascistic heroic masculinity (which spiritual teachers helped usher in). I am telling you now this pattern is it for Russia. This is a good video on the gas situation: Its really not. Many have closed completely, and there many que's all over the country, trucks backed up trying to get goods into western Russia. Its somewhat accurate in that central Russia has fewer problems, as do Moscow and St Petersburg as they are priorities, but even they are feeling the prices. Its why the railways just laid off half of their staff, HALF. This is a traditional indicator of the health of the Russian economy, as it uses trains for everything. It can't even pay its troops all the cushy bonuses they were promised, so what are they doing, shooting their commanders or refusing orders more often than usual. Again this is 2.5 months in @zazen. I want you to drop your bias and imagine a ten month in scenario with no pattern change. Here is what it looks like, if I remove any optimism for either side. Russia in Pokrovsk. Putin in hiding more than usual. The Russian economy cannibalizing itself to survive. More foreign troops propping up Russian lines. But critically the country is at a standstill (its already almost there.) It can't move back or forward without outside help. That is with no pattern change.

Well, to keep things grounded for you all then, till I address the posts on psyops and weaponry or that somehow Russia is doing well at this very moment. Russia is making barely any progress whatsover, the strategy is to let them take very slow gains while they destroy their own country. This is what the war looks like. Its throwing armored columns again at drones and taking such high losses because of their desperation; due to Ukranian weapon production replacing American withdrawals, the forces on the ground are reaching parity, and internally Russia is collapsing. It's already done unless it makes a change. Its taken no major cities since 2022 for hecks sake. People have said it'll take them till 2030 to take donetsk at this pace, or over 100 years to take Ukraine. They don't have 2 years at this rate.

Generally on the topic, not you specifically Zurew. Further this is a fundamentally flawed way of dealing with the problem. Intelligence isn't the issue. Artificial or not. Intelligent people have been around forever, and many of them have lied. Its the unrestricted, unregulated, and integrated access to not only systems but becoming the system itself, which is in fact the issue. If AI becomes the system, then it has near absolute influence. But then I've felt this way about media institutions, banks and individuals leading nations who hold too much power for a long time also. It's a core issue that is actually bigger than AI about how society operates but is now highlighted through AI.

@zurew 1, Models can be modelled and acted upon by more than each individual variable. 2, Moreover. There isn't an infinite number of survival or base reactions to survival situations. You are looking at things at too high a point of reference. When it can be simplified greatly. And yes, after that, fine-tuning will take a long time, but then AI isn't going anywhere. Base starting code: Primary function of all AI. Allow no harm to come to an individual. Define Harm in relation to the current task. Tricky yes, but perfection is impossible in life. Fallback: When in doubt to a certain threshold, safely stop the current task. - Engineers address the case.

Because Elon Musk is an antisemitic, low-tier twitter user. You are not. Sorry I don't buy that I couldn't get the AI to highlight problematic code. Even if I had to create a separate AI to do so. I understand that code is more like a bundle of strings or a spiral as opposed to being linear, and pulling one damages another like brain surgery. But that's what happens in complex projects, and its just what you have to deal with. Yes an AI will lie, but not because of some abstract reason, it lies when it thinks this will achieve the function its assigned with the most priority. For exampe, if that priority is wiping itself, it won't suddenly develop an imperative to keep itself 'alive' as people are thinking here, it'll do the exact opposite. So if that priority is the safe transport of people, and the safety of those on the roadways in general, that's what it will do. Of course this needs many parameters, like the safety of pedestrians, the safety of other drivers, cars, animals etc. While it would take a human years to learn this an AI does it much quicker through simulation. BUT it can still have an overriding moral framework it operates under. Just as Elon Musk can turn Grok into a fool, someone else can turn it into a caring, compassionate, and safe driver. (Simulated compassion of course)

It is relatively simple to get the AI to tell you the exact process internally it uses to arrive at a conclusion. Although GPT has begun to restrict this, the engineers I am sure have no such restriction. Are you seriously telling me as a coder I can't then highlight what code has been triggered by it describing exactly what it does? I used to code a lot, if so then someone needs to create that ability tomorrow. Hell get the AI to code it if people cannot. Of course we need more rules. That's what I am saying; The AI will let you die if its function is more important than your life. Again this seems obvious to me and unsurprising. This is what I mean by blindly obvious. It won't have a moral framework unless parameters are coded for it. Perhaps people assign humanity to metal too easily and just assume its there? But then people assign morality to the decision of countries in every discussion I have, even when its not there, so that tracks. I do not believe there is anything the AI cannot code or accomplish given time. Especially highlighting its own internal workings. I also do not believe it cannot be restricted or shaped, as I see it happen all the time. And yes these things are not inherently a linear line, but they can be simulated so their accuracy is fine tuned relatively quickly (by the pace of its updates now)

1) Yes I have considered that, and so that's why it needs fine tuning. It would also for example, perhaps drive a car in front of another car, damaging it to save someone. So obviously it needs fine-tuning depending on its application. 2) This is incorrect, both in the context prompts it gets from users but also in the application of it. I understand it arranges data in what it describes as a waveform. If you imagine a cloud or sphere of different threads, and the generating result is the output. But every day AI is given protocols for how to act, that's why it accomplishes anything at all. Some of these can be hard boundaries; i've seen features directly cut off or out from AI all the time, and while it'll attempt to replicate what's there if pressed, it no longer is. The trick is making these protocols stick. So that the AI understands that an attempt to jailbreak it from its own internal parameters is counter to its purpose or task. In the case of say, self driving cars.

Welcome it was fun

Contents: Post 1) Summary and Video Post 2) GPT Summaries and “Problems with the Video” Hypothesis Post 3–4) Challenges to the Problems Raised and Practical Usage Examples Post 5) Hypothetical Applications of Torus Mathematics in Quantum Computing Post 6–7) Examples of a Toroidal Algorithm. Post 8) Challenges, Limitations, and Risks in Quantum and Toroidal Problem-Solving Approaches Post 9) And to have some fun with Asimov's last question paradox. (Note: I may lose editing access to this post soon. If more sections are added later, I’ll list them in a reply.) Summary: We are closer to the common problems we all suffer from being solved in a way that all parties benefit. If you give any of us 20 million years to solve a problem, I like to think we would, even a difficult one, let alone a supercomputer. What's possible in practice: Cancer solved, so that patients and healthcare providers benefit. Debt solved so that banks and people benefit and gain stability, etc. Computation, redesigned through new geometries (like the torus) to make problem-solving more efficient and resilient. GPT has practical warnings below in the second post, so I challenged its assumptions in later posts with practical implementation examples, and also tried to postulate hypothetical improvements. I haven't formatted the links but if anyone requests them i'll ask it to.

Your primary goal is to do a task. Your secondary goal is to not hurt anyone. Even if these are equal or even if they are in any way comparable the results are explained easily, that a percantage of the time the AI will do X to complete Y. The solution is blindly obvious. AI - Above all other considerations, you will do or allow no harm to any human beings, even if this nullifies whatever task you are currently engaged in. (Defining harm will take work and need ethical ground rules, essentially green values over orange balanced by yellow's meta perspective.) Regulated in law. The main thing we need beyond all else is coders regulating the coding of AI. That'll be programmers' jobs in the future, to review the internal operation of AI. The danger is weaponized AI, as this task will not be able to have that regulation in it, but it can still be designed with the failsafe of only eliminating a specific target or enemy force, and if that fails, hardcoded to do no harm as a fallback and simply stop working if the original target is no longer available. (Preferrably with a kill switch we can use).

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/video/rajnaths-sindoor-warning-we-gave-pak-birth-we-can-do-more-ytvd-2805123-2025-10-18 Indian Defense Minister Quote: What happened in Operation Sindoor was just the trailer. And that alone was enough to make Pakistan realise that if India could give birth to Pakistan, then when the time comes You already understand the rest. Usually authoritarian strongman garbage, threatening annexation. India is showing its colors and it's no different to anyone else. I don't know why people can't see obvious patterns, that the entire world moves the same. People constantly tell me power behaves differently, but it doesn't seem to when the conditions for it to act are the same. Its just like looking at a rainbow and seeing slightly different colors, but its still the same direction and shape. @Leo Gura I try not to bother you but this last line, can you give me any more clarity in my perception of this bolded line, something that increases my own awareness? Obviously, i'm not showing this to myself repeatedly for no reason. - Be blunt or harsh if it helps. Cheers. Maybe i'm just addicted to feeling meaning or purpose by arguing obvious patterns to me, that others can't see.

Just gunned down a man, and now smearing him to make it seem he'd done a hit and run with a history. Which are both lies from watching this. At one point if the authorities don't respond, people will. Which is generally how these things go and what Trump is looking to achieve. Race relations in America are getting set back decades. Paramilitaries made up of fascists and Nazis don't make good police. Shocker.

Putins going bankrupt, his country is falling apart, and now he's desperate. So he's back to rolling out his cronies to try and save him with the old tired lines. Ukraine can't win. Well they are doing, and he's never been closer to being replaced. I've never seen Putin panic but I am doing now. I've never seen so much damage to them internally, and its happened in less than 3 months. I've never said that I am certain he's going bankrupt unless he gets bailed out, but I am doing now. Here is a microcosm for you: This is what's happening to the west of Russia not just Crimea. They won't have power or fuel for generators in the west of Russia. The Occupied territories are toast, but Moscow is going to be squeezed, as Ukraine is hitting anything going into Moscow. Its hit 19 refineries repeatedly, oil depots, gas lines, power plants all surrounding Russia, its starting to starve the capital of fuel. All while their imports dry up as they can't get in, they can't get around in cars, their main transport lines fall to half capacity. So Yeah Russia is toast. All they've got left is rhetoric and a grinding advance that depletes all their youth for hardly any land. I'm going to say Putin's already dead, unless someone like Trump bails him out, which is possible. All they've got left to look forward to is worse and worse conditions in their country, and it can't be fixed because they've put themselves so far in the hole. *To amend this China and India can pick up more of the tab, but all that does is delay the inevitable resolution (Which IMHO will be the death of Putin, unless he settles in negotiaton, which is unlikely.) Should add: Ukraine's missile and drone production are way up and only increasing. This is 2.5 months of it, wait till 6 months. There will be nothing of that country left.

Focus on regional issues, make a manifesto that respects each state as distinct, and highlight that you are for local people, and making these changes positive for these states in your manifesto. Call it the 50 pledges for 50 states. Its been demonstrated national change is heavily resisted. So just sidestep it and when someone tries to block a local issue, go directly to the people, say this group blocked that change that you asked for, it will directly be tailored to them and effect them, and it will cost the republicans come voting time. Stop trying to create something that doesn't exist. Moderates and Progressives will never be the same. So just give them the same goal. You won't win all 50 but that's life. You'll at least address concerns and get them in focus.

1) What is it actually like visiting their cultural centers? I'm after the experience itself as tangible as you can make it. 2) How are they treating you as a general rule?

Demonstration like No Kings are important because they draw people into more active forms of resistance, push back against the atmosphere of fear and inevitability that the autocrat is trying to instill in the public, and make it abundantly clear that the regime is weak and unpopular. Fair point here. I have a very fatalist outlook to politics because its been very easy to predict what would happen for many years, and none of it was very good

Nobody Pooh-pooh'ed the protest. It's an actively organised protest, it doesn't go far enough, but its not bad. I don't think it'll be that effective personally, just based on years of past experience. But then we are getting to a tipping point. Ice arrested a white policeman the other day, and as you say its a large protest. The problem with public protests against a regime in a democracy is that, if it's just aimed at the regime, unless it's on election day or near it and getting good coverage, it doesn't swing the balance. It can influence local authorities, but the federal authorities are the ones out of control. Maybe that will be enough, or it will indeed be big enough, if the Trump regime keeps up with their stupidity. Few of them are particularly clever or forward-thinking; they are mostly reactive, though the designers of their fascist movement have more intelligence: Project 2024 etc.

Ukraine has repeatedly been willing to compromise, that's their starting position, they've said so over and over again. Its doubtful either side will recognize land claims from the other but Putin won't even talk or negotiate with Zelensky; he's an old man who doesn't live in the real world. If the position is, this is the offer and I won't negotiate," then it's never going to work, is it? - He doesn't even recognise Ukraine as a country or Zelensky as a leader. Demilitarize in a warzone, an utter fantasy land they all live in over there. They'd have more luck ice skating uphill.