zazen

The world is hip to the game. Anyone still making excuses or rationalising Western imperial action is ignorant at best, or a supremacist imperial bootlicker at its worst. “Deterrence for me but not for thee” https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/06_iran_strategy.pdf

@Inliytened1 They’re building to deter Western misadventure, not destroy. Why didn’t the US stick to the JCPOA? Trumps talking about peace now when it was already in place. Such gaslightery. Answer this: does Israel have nukes or not?

The world just observed how not to take the US or Israel at its word.

So Seymour Hersh was correct. Whether this escalates and spirals out of control or not - one thing is certain: trust in the US will be even lower, especially with Iran. They lulled them into complacency during negotiations when Israel struck them, and now again with the “two week delay” on a decision which seems was already decided upon and acted upon 2 days after dropping the 2 week notice. Another rug pull.

Like I shared, it’s rhetorical. They can’t and won’t wipe anyone off the map - they’re mainly against the policies. Perhaps US-Israel shouldn’t create the conditions for them to be hated by the world so much. This could be true. Things could de-escalate now as the US can save face with this strike - but Iran now needs to retaliate to the US in order to save face. If it’s contained and theatric, the US could decide enough is enough. But then the US also can’t be seen to be hit by Iran and not do nothing - even if it’s theatric with no lives lost. Remember how Iran retaliated against Israel with advanced warning and didn’t kill anyone? That’s a de-escalatory face saving strike. But this crosses a different threshold between Iran and the US. Each side needs to hit just hard enough to preserve credibility, but not hard enough to force the other to hit back harder. War has its own logic that can spiral out of control. It seems likely the facility isn’t fully destroyed so the question is will Israel stop striking and escalating? This may fulfil the US’s need to maintain its image of being a strong hegemon but it doesn’t meet Israels demand for denying Iran nuclear capability or bringing about regime change. Theatrics and symbolism only work when all players are playing by the same playbook.

Awesome read that made me think. I'll add some nuance in that I think resistance and martyrdom are more a functional tool rather than a foundational identity (same with the concept of jihad in wider Islam). Their identity is capable of resistance but not dependent on it in order to define it self in the negative. Their ethos is one of sovereignty and dignity - which as @PurpleTree pointed out above is also why they fit into the BRICS framework where sovereignty and multipolarism aren't treated as threats. Resistance and martyrdom aren't pathologies (essential) but paths (circumstantial) to being and remaining sovereign in the face of tyranny and domination. They don't resist enemies because they have a fetish for death or need an eternal enemy to affirm their identity - but because a enemy keeps arriving in the form of Western domination through coups, sanctions and encirclement. The trap is the Wests who remain baffled that a nation they tried to conquer refuses to become a client state by sacrificing their sovereignty like others did. The tragedy on the geopolitical stage is that the West insists others dance on their pole, when there are multiple poles that exist and would like to exist. Iran doesn't want to become like everyone else if everyone else means submission to Western hegemony. Thankfully, they have found a home in BRICS multi-polarity, which is carving out a parallel world that respects others distinct from themselves existing within. The tension is that Iran won't normalize to being a pawn, while the West can''t normalize being able to sit down at a table among equals - who instead insists on being at the head of the table.

It's understandable why Israel went for nukes out of survival logic - which was before it had US protection. It comes down to vulnerability which comes in many forms - being outnumbered or outmatched, poor geography, lack of partners or allies. The reason Japan doesn't go for nukes despite being outnumbered by China is because it has US backing. North Korea went for nukes because it was isolated. The gulf don't go for nukes because they have US protection including Pakistan. But its the same survival logic of vulnerability that is causing Iran to want to pursue nukes or keep the capability to do so - it's in a hostile neighborhood, outnumbered by a sunni population if a fight was to ever break out over religious dividing lines, and is surrounded by US bases - meaning outmatched by US military who have massive fire and air power. Iran's the last man standing against US - Israeli hegemony in the region - anyone in their shoes would want to get deterrence through ballistic missiles or any other means possible. Democratic restrains didn't stop the US from nuking Japan including all the other naughty stuff the US has been up to every year of its existence till today. In fact, democracy which allows for change every few years is vulnerable to an extremist or demagogue being voted into power. Trump was voted into power and left the JCPOA which was keeping Iran away from nukes - that's the reliability of democracy at work. This is the same democracy that enabled Libya to give up their WMD programme but that then resulted in Gaddafi being toppled and sodomized with a bayonet in utter humiliation. As Hillary Clinton said “we came, we saw, he died”. This is why the chant ''Death to America'' which is explained here for Khameni: Another clip: https://x.com/me_observer_/status/1936223604175450393?s=46&t=DuLUbFRQFGpB8oo7PwRglQ It doesn’t take Sherlock Holmes to figure out why the chant exists after watching what the US has done the past decades. Iran just says the quiet part out loud that most of the Global South and Muslim world feel. They have a culture of resistance and martyrdom to not fear the consequences as much. The West acts surprised that they are stood up to - they act as if no other people on the planet have pride in them to fight back or that they have civilizations (Persian, Indian, Chinese) with spirituality and depth more ancient than even theirs that are worth fighting for. It's dehumanizing at its worst and ignorant as its best. They see anyone's freedom anywhere - as a threat to their supremacy everywhere. ''How dare they resist''

Why do you think Iran is acting the way it does? Your answers found in point 1 you shared from Chat GPT: Proliferation domino effect. Who’s started the nuke race in the region? Who’s incentivised the need for some deterrence capacity to be established (via proxy, missiles etc) due to country after country around you getting intervened in and destabilised? If the conclusions make the US come across bad maybe that’s just fact, too bad it hurts your feelings. Don’t call to cancel me like you did purple tree.

Can’t demand a country get rid of its only deterrent alongside not allowing them to pursue the ultimate deterrent of a nuke. The logic here is that “because you can reach us with weapon X, you can’t have weapon X”. But then that means no country should have a airforce, navy or drones. US shouldn’t have carrier ships on the sea and Israel shouldn’t have F35’s as they’ve demonstrated in targeting Iran by air. They should get rid of them also then. In fact the current standoff is between Irans ballistic missiles and Israel’s airforce - both countries are getting hits and blows. Telling either to get rid of their strengths is asking them to walk naked. What the West (Israel and US) want is a monopoly on power so that they can dominate. The definition of audacity, hypocrisy and supremacy.

Anything could happen within the next two weeks. The US is demanding total surrender and zero enrichment which is a red line for Iran, who’s demanding minimal enrichment for civilian purposes with strict oversight by the IAEA. Donald is ambiguous and sending mixed signals as usual, keeping everyone guessing. Any possible “negotiations” can easily be de-railed by Israel through continuous attacks (which Iran demands should stop for negotiations to take place), going after Khomeini, maybe even a false flag. The ball is in Israel’s court in how they want this to play out in order to drag the US in. If they just keep provoking Iran and invite retaliatory strikes, it could pressure the US to step in and act within or towards the end of this small window.

https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/what-i-have-been-told-is-coming-in Isn’t Seymour Hersh a pretty networked guy with insider access? Apparently attacks going ahead this weekend. “This is a report on what is most likely to happen in Iran, as early as this weekend, according to Israeli insiders and American officials I’ve relied upon for decades. It will entail heavy American bombing. I have vetted this report with a longtime US official in Washington, who told me that all will be “under control” if Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei “departs.” Just how that might happen, short of his assassination, is not known. There has been a great deal of talk about American firepower and targets inside Iran, but little practical thinking, as far I can tell, about how to remove a revered religious leader with an enormous following. I have reported from afar on the nuclear and foreign policy of Israel for decades. My 1991 book The Samson Option told the story of the making of the Israeli nuclear bomb and America’s willingness to keep the project secret. The most important unanswered question about the current situation will be the response of the world, including that of Vladimir Putin, the Russian president who has been an ally of Iran’s leaders. The United States remains Israel’s most important ally, although many here and around the world abhor Israel’s continuing murderous war in Gaza. The Trump administration is in full support of Israel’s current plan to rid Iran of any trace of a nuclear weapons program while hoping the ayatollah-led government in Tehran will be overthrown.”

Day after day atrocities at aid sites whilst attention goes to the Iran-Israel war. Fuck Israel and Western complicity. The next decades will look very different as power centres shift - justice will be served in the form of those who gain power in the East and those who lose it in the West, crumbling under their own injustices and moral failings the world has seen and that no amount of spiral dynamics gymnastics can explain away. 🍉 🕊️

Da deeeep state Jokes aside. In the US the president operates within a system built to platform elite interest and preserve elite continuity - rather than disrupt elite interests or check their excessess. That’s what people mean by the deep state - a system behind the system, made up of deeply entrenched power that outlives any presidential term. “They” are mainly the financial, corporate, and national security (intelligence agencies + MIC) elite - who influence the state through think tanks, lobbying, and the revolving door. That’s why socio-cultural policies shift from admin to admin, but policies tied to money and power rarely do - like whether we get sent to die in wars or whether we can afford groceries. In general: The US political system is a pay to play whorehouse of elite interests where capital controls the state. Its the only fans of empire where powers bought and where the house is fragmented amongst elite factions. In the Chinese political system you have to play well enough to be chosen to govern the house - where the state controls capital. Its the arranged marriage of empire where powers managed and the house remains in order.

@PurpleTree Dave Smith is pretty awesome. Debating Konstantin on Piers Morgan which will be interesting. Just uploaded:

If we're going to judge a countries ability to have nukes by how much danger it poses then USA would be at the top of that list. Should they be stripped of their nukes? Or even Israel after all they've done in the past year or two. Iran's behavior is geopolitical and deterrent based, not genocidal and domination based. They even have a fatwa against nuclear weapons - but will bend to pursuing it out of necessity like a cat in a corner - which Israel has put them in now. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Khamenei's_fatwa_against_nuclear_weapons The best bet to avoid them having nukes was diplomacy which worked to achieve the JCPOA between 2015 and 2018. That was left by uni-laterally by the US which is why they started enriching uranium to a threshold level today. In the past Netenyahu was lying out of his ass about them getting nukes, but today they are closer than ever because of the behaviour of the US - Israel. The point of them being close to nukes is actually half true today, more than it was in the past. They are at the threshold level today and remain there so that they can obtain nukes within a shorter time frame - if they felt existentially threatened. And this is all in reaction to the US leaving the nuclear deal they had in place. Why did Israel strike Iran now while they were in negotiations and had a talk coming up on Sunday in Oman, and killed the key negotiator? Diplomacy works, but its one side that seems to sabotage it time and again. It was also diplomacy that got back the hostages Israel always cries about. The issue is, Israel can't bomb nuclear related knowledge out of Iranian brains - unless they genocide the country. Even if the facilities are destroyed today, they can just be built up and we'll be in the same position in a few years. If a dog ate my math homework, I still know math. It's funny how we call governments we don't like regimes. Imagine saying the Irish regime is anti-semitic because it's against the Israeli states actions lol.

Violent rhetoric without violent action, is still less dangerous than polite rhetoric masking violent actions. The US isn't loud and violent in rhetoric (maybe with Trump now lol) yet the US strangles you in a suit and with a silent smile - in the case of Iran - economic strangulation, coups etc. Their violence is in sophisticated think tank pieces talking about how to best subjugate you: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/which-path-to-persia-options-for-a-new-american-strategy-toward-iran/ I do agree though - Iran's rhetoric is strategically self-defeating even though its morally reactive and has reason to exist due to a hostile history with the West. Rhetoric shouldn't be that low, especially at the level of the State, even if the streets may speak that way. I think it's also baked into their identity - a proud civilization that has withstood many invasions and empires. Even the Shia religion's ethos is based upon the martyr of Imam Hussain who resisted a corrupt empire. Iran is unique in that it has a long imperial history,a civilization identity that predates Islam, a religious worldview that elevates resistance as a sacred duty, and a political identity of resistance which extended to become the notorious ''axis of resistance'' with whoever resists against Western empire and occupation of Middle Eastern lands. The one regime that needs changing is the one that insists on everyone else changing. The US may not speak as loudly against any adversaries, but they do silently topple them: Pictures speak louder than words. Imagine kicking off a nuclear arms race in the region, then bitching that others are racing too. The audacity of country X, to tell country Y, that they can't have weapon Z (nukes) - whilst that country has weapons A-Z, and has used them ruthlessly, including weapon Z (nukes) twice on a civilian population. ''How dare you want the same weapons as us! Don't you see how dangerous they are!'' sure we know, because YOU demonstrated that to us in Japan. ''We need these weapons to keep the peace'' sure, but YOU'VE delivered global chaos. ''Others are too barbaric to have these weapons'' sure, but YOU'RE the only ones to have used them twice on a defeated civilian population. Their foreign policy is ''Do as we say, not as we do.'' Deterrence to them is strategic savagery in a suit and tie - that only they are entitled to.

Like you said, change happens slowly and needs to happen organically on a peoples own timeline and according to their own customs and culture. Last year Pezeshkian was voted in who is a moderate reformist if I'm not mistaken. And we can see the change on the streets: The West should have let Iran integrate into the global economy instead of strangling it for decades. That wealth and development would speed up change by itself. War, economic strangulation and instability aren't the conditions for social progress to happen - but in fact the opposite. Groups with hard line stances take up and hold power during hard times. Like that whole hard times creates strong men cycle - they are in charge during conditions of survival. Hard times gets your hard liners. The West think they can bomb change into place through a shock and awe campaign - which isn't even about change on a social level but is a moral cover for the interests of power. Otherwise they wouldn't be supporting Saudi Arabia all these decades. They act like their freedom bombs are going to blow the hijabs off or some bullshit. A longer video showing Tehran (ignore the clickbait thumbnail) : It looks cleaner and safer than most ''wealthy'' capitals (NYC, London, Paris).

Agreed there's domestic issues, just doesn't give imperial actors moral license to do as they wish. It's like a chicken or the egg situation of who caused it. Timeline wise it looks more like Iran is reacting to the West than the other way round. Mossadegh was couped by CIA/MI6 in 1953 because he nationalized Iranian oil, then came the Western backed Shah who was known to be brutal (his secret police SAVAK was trained by the CIA and Mossad), he was overthrown in the revolution, then US backed Saddams invasion of Iran in the 80's, post 2000's US bases encircle Iran in Iraq and Afghanistan, besides already existing along the gulf. Iran seems to be responding to imperialism more than being imperialistic itself. Its more reactive than offensive. Its forced to play asymmetrical defense and deterrence via proxies because it doesn’t have the military or economic weight to match the US / Israel alliance. The US doesn't need proxies because its muscle does the job directly with its own bases, fleets and carrier groups.

The audacity of a country for not wanting to submit to a superpower unable to have power besides or ahead of others but insists on having power over others. I agree that their rhetoric doesn't help - but I don't think its their sole purpose to eviscerate Americans and Israelis either. Its more political talk and symbolic defiance, more geopolitical rather than genocidal. When they chant ''Death to America'' aren't they referring to the system of imperialism and domination mainly? Israel is the local muscle platforming the forward base for that empire, beyond its own goals of denying Palestinian statehood. It would be good to solve the Palestinian question, but even better if it didn't continue to exist as a platform for that superpowers regional dominance, and then have to suffer for it in perpetual fear and blood. I'm sure Israel has its own ambitions of regional domination but they stem more from a distorted survival logic, rather than empire logic. That's what blurs the lines of who's behind imperial actions in the Middle East - people debate if it's Israel dictating things or the the US, and then come all the conspiracies. It's possible both interests are served - Israels survival, US's dominance. Though Israels survival is more at risk and is more existential than the US's dominance which is a geopolitical luxury - that should play into Israels calculations on how it wants to exist in the region.

It's actually absurd to think that a nation like Iran, home to the one of the oldest civilizations, can be told by a 200 year old nation like the US what it can and can't pursue whilst other nations not only have that same thing but have used it (US). Country X telling country Y they can't have weapon Z, meanwhile country X has weapons X,Y and Z and uses them ruthlessly. If we just put ourselves in Iran's shoes - a regional belligerent like Israel un-officially has nukes and is backed by the worlds largest imperial belligerent, your neighbor Pakistan has nukes and is ideologically divergent from you (if Sunni-Shia divide flares up), your rival Saudi Arabia is a short hop across the gulf is aligned to your nuke stacked neighbor and views you as a competitor for energy markets and regional dominance, and is also backed by the words imperial power looking to maintain its primacy. It would be absolutely idiotic to be in such a position and not pursue deterrence. Of course they tried pursuing this especially after the US inserted itself into the Middle East post 2000 in the war of terror knocking out country after country with think tanks clearly outlining their plans and ambitions. Yet, they still signed up to the nuclear deal in 2015, unilaterally left by the US in 2018, after which they were prompted to enrich to sit at the threshold level. And now again, they get preemptively attacked during negotiations, and their main negotiator decapitated.

Yeah, which is why I made sure to write could instead of would - it would be insane to do so. I can only imagine this as a last resort. Good point - similar to Israel. They simply conclude the worlds gonna hate no matter what so might as well just do what they want, and call critique anti-semitic. I do think there are some wider geopolitical goals for subduing Iran - that the US would like to pursue in order to maintain hegemony beyond just Israel wanting regional dominance. Iran sells 90% of its oil to China in currency other than the dollar. That lays a model path for other resource rich nations to de-dollarize. If the gulf were to ever think about trading oil in Yuan, surely regime changing or bombing Iran might make them think twice. Iran is like a gatekeeper nation in the largest landmass on earth - Eurasia. It sits between North-South and East-West corridors overlooking multiple chokepoints by sea and land. It's resource rich, has a large population, a decent industrial-science base, and is one of the oldest civilization. If it weren't sanctioned it would eclipse its rival across the gulf in regional clout. It's hard for empire to have such a nation be openly defiant of it, especially when it positions itself as the resistance. They can't have a example of such a nation existing in case others follow suit. Now we have BRICS and BRI of which Iran is integrating into - with China Russia Iran having their own axis for Eurasia itself - it's a central node. If Russia and China are too big to confront might as well go for Iran to slow down multi-polarity.

@Nivsch Hope you and everyone there are safe and this ends soon. Hezbollah has been exhausted for sure. I think Assad falling has helped Israel greatly as now Syrian airspace is clear for Israel to fly through and attack Iran. Also, supply lines to Hezbollah are disrupted which means they are hesitant to start something with Israel if they can't secure what they need for a prolonged conflcit. The issue with nuclear is that you can't bomb knowledge away. Even if Israel/US delay Iran being able to get nukes - the point is they have the technical knowhow and can eventually get them if they wanted to. It's like a dog eating your math homework - you lose the homework but you still know math. The US getting involved and bombing the Fordow facility under the mountain risks too much blow back. Strait of Hormuz could get shut, oil prices skyrocket affecting the world, US bases get hit by hypersonics, domestic US anger and international condemnation and fracturing of ties. The only way was and is diplomacy, which the 2015 signed JCPOA signed achieved, which Trump ripped up in 2018, which prompted Iran to enrich to a threshold point - which the US/Israel now bitch about and use a pre-text to go to war over. They were literally in negotiations - then Israel struck Iran and killed the key guy in the negotiation team - Ali Shamkhani. They can't just expect a deal in 60 days, this isn't wedding planning or a group chat trying to coordinate a holiday. The JCPOA took over 2 years, and this is writing the future of a entire regions with multiples states involved. It's not even a negotiation window, just a ultimatum. Sell me your house for pennies or I'll bomb it anyway is mob rule and imperial flexing not state to state diplomacy of mature actors. How does the world view the US now as a partner worth making deals with? All this being lost for what..Israel? Or they have their own interests and just use Israel as the scapegoat and moral cover.. If Israel wasn't hated enough already, imagine once the US gets dragged into this and we start getting US bodies in bags being flown home. Also, the hypocrisy is clear for the world to see - as if it wasn't already. Israel secretly has nukes and isn't signed to the non proliferation treaty (NPT) which means the IAEA can't inspect them. But Iran is and does have inspections. Yet - the strategic ambiguity of Israel is allowed but Iran being way less ambiguous isn't.

Vs the guy she told you not to worry about They didn’t perform with the polish and energy required of a superpower. Even Chinas female military parade projects more stregnth:

Just imagine that even on a right wingers X poll the consensus is not in favour of Israel: 90% of his audience doesn’t hold the opinion he’s paid to have. His mind just got Dun Kirk’d.