aurum

Yes, deepen your analysis. Western interventionism has been exploitive for the global south and at times problematic for their development. Great. Now what other distinctions can we make?

I understand his point. It’s a very obvious one for anyone versed in progressive politics. Nothing new is being said.

People on social media talking about how sad it is for Joe Biden that it had to "end this way" and that it stains his legacy. No! If Kamala is the nominee and beats Trump, dropping out will prove to be a legendary move by Biden. This only cements his status as a great president.

I’m surprised he feels a trump victory is so likely. Assuming Kamala is the nominee, I’m optimistic right now about her chances. People are getting behind her. Maybe trump still wins, but saying a trump victory is ”still very likely” seems like a bad read.

Scale is not the only factor. And to a certain degree, the scale argument works against you. The west has been more successful at exploitation because it has things like functioning courts and laws. This allows for scale. Third world country courts are so corrupt in many cases that they cannot scale their exploitation. False. Devilry takes many forms. Just because you are a weaker devil doesn't mean you're not a devil. It's not about being equal in some simplistic fashion. There can be differences. Just recognize the devilry when it exists. And stop acting like the east is a bunch of saints compared to the west. One thing is guaranteed: if there's humans, there's devilry going on. Well that part is true. There certainly are reasons. But also, there is anti-western bias. Both exist. I have. That's partly how I drifted towards the political left in the US. The right-wing has historically been too drunk on nationalism and American exceptionalism to take issues of western devilry seriously.

Marianne Williamson is dancing somewhere right now.

I'm reevaluating things in light of Biden's dropout. And I'm thinking my earlier position was somewhat foolish. I misread how strong public backlash would be to the debate. Yes, things are more chaotic for the Dems. The repubs are sycophants and all in on trump, and their unity looks good on the surface. But that blind loyalty may come back to bite them in the ass. Trump is badly unpopular. The dems have a chance to turn this chaos into gold. This is an opportunity, albeit one that comes with notable risk.

You perpetually downplay or straight up deny the devilry / corruption of the east. And it's because you are biased towards hating the west. Clear?

Wow. What a turn of events. Credit to everyone who predicted this would happen. I was not in favor of replacing Biden after the initial debate, but here we are.

But that hate is also exactly what is distorting your perspective on this. You’re going to have to set aside your anti-western bias to see this issue with more objectivity. Up to you whether that’s something you are interested in. You could also just claim I have a pro-western bias and move on.

Does it matter?

To be clear, this near-death experience has not fundamentally changed Trump. He still is deeply unaware that he is acting as a devil, as all devils must. And all his fascists plans are still humming along nicely. I did hear from some non-trump supporters that they felt like he may have had a moment during the beginning of his speech. I did not watch the speech personally but it seemed possible that maybe a bullet was enough to crack him for a moment. But of course it is trump, and the whole thing could have easily been scripted. The problem is you just can’t trust the guy. He has blatantly violated the truth over and over, with no sign of self-reflection. And he has surrounded himself with people of similarly low integrity. So from my perspective, he gets the opposite of the benefit of the doubt. Regardless, it doesn’t matter much. Even if he got shot and cried about it doesn’t mean he’s not a devil. Especially when you consider how often he carelessly suggests violence towards others. Playing the victim is one of his absolute favorite cards.

You don't think it's possible almost getting shot rattled him?

You went way too far. Your pain is massively blinding you on this issue.

A bullet to the head has a way of making even the biggest devil pause. I wouldn't dismiss the possibility he had a genuine moment of vulnerability.

I would like to know how Lichtman decides who wins each key. How is he objectively determining who is charismatic and who isn't? With the exception of 1-4, the winner of all these keys could easily be challenged. @Hardkill maybe I'm not familiar enough with his model, but I think @Raze is right about this. The winner of each key is definitely subjective. So I struggle to see this as objective science. Also, is he looking at international elections? What about the data from those? In general, it's hard for me to imagine you're going to be able to boil down something as complex as a presidential election down to 13 keys. Lichtman may have a good record, and maybe it is the best prediction model we have. But frankly predicting 10 elections does not prove the efficacy of his system or make it objective science. We would need way more data for that. Open to counterarguments.

Yeah that really looked bad for Cenk. He is getting ripped in the comments.

That's definitely a good rule of thumb and good starting place. But I want to add a few points: 1) Guys bullshit themselves about how they are doing this, when they are not. 2) You want to be mindful that you're not so controlling of her well-being that you actually end up trampling over her autonomy. She is an adult and is allowed to make her own mistakes. You do not necessarily know what is best for her, or get to make that decision for her regardless. So making sure you are acting "in her best interest" is a tough thing to get right. It's not always that clear. This is especially true in a more modern dating environment where women are more empowered. Ultimately I think the best solution to this problem is consciousness work and trauma healing. This will help show you your specific negative patterns in relationships and how you might be hurting the women you are dating. Then it's on you to do the right thing and use your best judgment in any given scenario.

Some good non-dual insights. Some very bad political takes. And yes, his whole scale and AK method is highly questionable at best. Mostly it's just pure bunk. I think he's a good example of how someone can seem to be relatively advanced spiritually but still get much wrong in the relative, material world. These two things are NOT the same. If you want to understand the material world, it's not enough to be woke. You have to specifically study what you want to understand. And even then you will get a ton wrong simply because you are a biased human with limited information, limited education and limited ability to think beyond your conditioning / culture.

You’re totally fine. I did not assume you agreed with their position.

Raze we've been through this already. I'm not getting into it again.

Yeah that was excellent. Bernie also gave a good take in the NYT supporting Biden. Somehow I think they will be more correct on this issue than a leftist streamer.

Talking about security failures I would think is fine. It does look like the Secret Service dropped the ball quite a bit. Conspiracies about insides jobs, no. That would require actual evidence, not just some internet basement theory.

Because as much as they whine about wokeness, the reality is that woke is winning. Their nationalist, monocultural philosophy cannot work. Just the fact that Vivek did as well as he did shows that culture has shifted. He benefits from all the work of those "woke" civil rights activists. Fundamentally they are in a bind. They know they get slammed for being racist and intolerant. And they don't like to think of themselves that way. So in comes the contradictions.

I support a crackdown.