Will the Taliban takeover lead to another European refugee crisis? ENews, Al Jazeera

[Milos Uzelac]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2021/8/17/will-the-taliban-takeover-lead-to-a-european-refugee-crisis

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.euronews.com/amp/2021/08/16/as-chaos-deepens-in-afghanistan-is-europe-on-the-verge-of-a-fresh-refugee-crisis

"Numbers show there hasn't been a massive influx of Afghan migrants in Europe over the past months thus far.

In the first half of 2021, around 3,200 irregular border crossings by Afghan nationals were reported at the EU external borders, a European Commission spokesperson told Euronews in a written statement.

"This number represents a 41% decrease compared with the previous year," the Commission added, noting that "border and travel restrictions linked to the coronavirus pandemic had an impact on last year’s figures."

While it's "very likely" that a large number of Afghans will need refugee protection in the coming months, "this massive crisis doesn't mean people reach Europe," said Gerald Knaus, the founding chairman of the European Stability Initiative (ESI), a think tank.

"To reach Europe, you need to cross a lot of borders which are very much harder to cross today than they were a few years ago," the migration expert went on, pointing to the alleged Greek policies of pushback at its land and sea borders -- which Athens denies.

In recent years, the EU has invested significant resources to strengthen its external borders and deter migrants. In 2016, the bloc agreed to pay Turkey €6 billion to prevent Syrian asylum seekers from crossing to Greece.

"When it comes to the facts, we don't yet see a large number of Afghans arriving in Turkey and certainly not in Europe. And it's not clear how many will be able to leave Afghanistan -- Pakistan claims that it can protect the border," Knaus noted.

"In 2015, in six months more than 500,000 people came spontaneously from Turkey to Greece. In comparison, now in the last six months, the total number of people reaching from Turkey to Greece, not just Afghans but everybody, was about 4,000. So that is 125 times less," he insisted.

When it comes to the Belarus route, the numbers are even lower. "It's been around 3,000 so far, so less than the 4,000 to reach Greece," Knaus said. Out of these 3,000, the majority were Iraqis.

"So you have a hysteria about big numbers and the reality, is very few people cross borders."

"This is fear-mongering and populism. If we confront this and say, 'No, the real crisis is a different one.' It's that at our borders, we're breaking EU laws, and in Afghanistan, a lot of people are in need of protection. These are people that we fought with and for, to rebuild the country for 20 years, and we've abandoned them," Knaus said.

Kirişci, who is a non-resident senior fellow at Brookings think-tank, that large numbers of Afghans "kept streaming into Turkey through Iran," citing UNHCR figures.

But both experts agreed on one thing: it will be extremely difficult for Afghan migrants to enter the EU.

"There is going to be a massive humanitarian crisis on the [Greece-Turkey] border, the kind of crisis that is going to damage the reputation of the European Union internationally as the world is going to see how the European Union resists refugees from entering the Schengen area," Kirişci told Euronews.