Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters all moved towards Republicans

[Raze]

Despite accusations of racism against Trump and a large push by Democrats for diversity and anti-racism, Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters all moved away from democrats and towards Republicans during both Trump elections.

 

If this movement is sustained (of even increased if republicans run an outreach program to minority communities/lose divisive rhetoric like Trump had), the democrats could potentially lose a huge advantage from what was a growing population of voters.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/20/opinion/joe-biden-inauguration.html

 

[Frylock]

Exit poll data in 2020 is not to be trusted. Democratic voters were far more likely to cast mail-in votes than in any election prior due to the pandemic, and Trump actively discouraging his base from mail-in votes.

[Raze]

4 minutes ago, Frylock said:

Exit poll data in 2020 is not to be trusted. Democratic voters were far more likely to cast mail-in votes than in any election prior due to the pandemic, and Trump actively discouraging his base from mail-in votes.

Quote

Edison Research — the polling firm that produces the exit polls used by ABC News, CBS News, CNN and NBC News — has changed its methodology so that the “exit polls” you see on Nov. 3 will actually be a combination of traditional exit polls of Election Day voters and phone polls of mail voters. In certain states, there will also be exit polls of early in-person voters, conducted at early-voting locations in essentially the same way as traditional exit polls (just conducted earlier).

 

[Frylock]

I'm assuming you're sourcing from NYT but I can't read that article because of a paywall. Even if that were true, more white males voted democrat than republican.

Either way, no. Mostly boomers vote republican, younger people trend democrat. Republican party is not in position to grow.

[Raze]

40 minutes ago, Frylock said:

I'm assuming you're sourcing from NYT but I can't read that article because of a paywall. Even if that were true, more white males voted democrat than republican.

Either way, no. Mostly boomers vote republican, younger people trend democrat. Republican party is not in position to grow.

No, more white males voted for Trump, just not as much in 2020 as in 2016.

Joe Biden was leading with Boomers, it is Generation X, the generation after Boomers who is consistently more republican. The younger generation is more liberal, despite some minor indication gen z might go more conservative, and no telling what is after that. You can't just say 'young people are liberal' and assume republicans are over, the young replacing the new happens slowly over a long period of time, not instantly. Young people do not vote often and the republican boomers and gen x'ers are going to be around for multiple other elections.

If republicans continue this trend with minority voters, and expand it, they will be growing their base of support and endangering democrats, because there are many key areas that are only purple or blue because of a large minority population.

Edited January 21, 2021 by Raze

[Frylock]

11 minutes ago, Raze said:

No, more white males voted for Trump, just not as much in 2020 as in 2016.

Same with your minority claim. Supposedly, both shifted the opposite way, but were not the majority.

 

11 minutes ago, Raze said:

Joe Biden was leading with Boomers, it is Generation X, the generation after Boomers who is consistently more republican. The younger generation is more liberal, despite some minor indication gen z might go more conservative, and no telling what is after that. You can't just say 'young people are liberal' and assume republicans are over, the young replacing the new happens slowly over a long period of time, not instantly. Young people do not vote often and the republican boomers and gen x'ers are going to be around for multiple other elections.

The youth vote replacing the older vote is not something that happens instantly, it is happening slowly over a long period of time.

Look, I'm just looking at the demographic trends with age. Majority of the population who vote Republican are older, and that's a fact Jack. As the younger generations overtakes the older ones over time, it will absolutely lean more democratic. No, milennials aren't going to suddenly become staunch conservative Republicans to counter balance this demographic trend. Texas will eventually go blue, we all know this has been trending that way as its urban populations swell. Arizona might start to trend blue too, Georgia as well. Republican party's only tool is voter supression. They haven't won the popular vote since Bush, anyways. They have lost 5 out of the last 6 populat votes in presidential elections. Time is against the Republicans, not the democrats.

Edited January 21, 2021 by Frylock

[Raze]

2 minutes ago, Frylock said:

Same with your minority claim. Supposedly, both shifted the opposite way, but were not the majority.

That is the point, it is a trend going in that direction. If it continues this will cause a major shift in campaigning from both sides.

2 minutes ago, Frylock said:

Look, I'm just looking at the demographic trends with age. Majority of the population who vote Republican are older, and that's a fact Jack. As the younger generations overtakes the older ones over time, it will absolutely lean more democratic. No, milennials aren't going to suddenly become staunch conservative Republicans to counter balance this demographic trend. Texas will eventually go blue, we all know this has been trending that way as its urban populations swell. Arizona might start to trend blue too, Georgia as well. Republican party's only tool is voter supression. They haven't won the popular vote since Bush, anyways. Time is against the Republicans, not the democrats.

I didn't say millennials are going to turn republican, I said there was some minor indication gen z might be more conservative than millennials. What you aren't understanding is that the age change happens slowly over a long period of time, not instantly. Republicans could for example win the next four elections in-spite of this by simply making more ground with the remaining older population than the democratic advantage of the younger population replacing them.

You're also not considering that what matters are key swing states, which can change for far more reasons, by your logic Florida would be solid blue right now, yet it's becoming red. 

Also, there is another even slower demographic trend of birthrates, people in dense cities (which are democratic mostly) have less children than people in rural areas. And for this reason among others, Republicans have more children than Democrats, and though this may be changing, generally children have a higher chance of voting for the same party their parents did than changing.

So far Texas has been leaning blue because of a large and growing Latino population, that trend may not continue if the trend of Latino's going towards Republicans continues. 

[Frylock]

I know it's not instantaneous. Where exactly do you see that Gen Z "might be more conservative than milennials"? Got any sources to back that up?

Rural area population is not growing, it's shrinking. Source: https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2018/05/22/demographic-and-economic-trends-in-urban-suburban-and-rural-communities/

Urban/suburban areas trend democratic, and that will always be the case. When people are in a melting pot of different backgrounds and ethnicities, they tend to lean more left than the rural areas that are primarily similar demographics. It's simply an exposure effect.

Your claim that Latinos, Asians, and Blacks are going to boost the Republican party is completely unfounded. For one, they are not a monolith. Mexicans heavily support democrat and have always trended that way, and they helped Biden win Arizona. The Cuban population supported Trump and helped him seal Florida, but the Cubans have their own historical beliefs of backing him. With no Trump, there's no reason to believe that certain minority backgrounds are going to continue to support the Republican party.

Also, you have glossed over that the Republicans have lost the popular vote 5 out of the last 6 presidential election cycles. This is not a fluke, this trend will continue to get worse for Republicans. No data supports their base growing faster than the demographics favoring Democrats.

Edited January 21, 2021 by Frylock

[Raze]

20 minutes ago, Frylock said:

I know it's not instantaneous. Where exactly do you see that Gen Z "might be more conservative than milennials"? Got any sources to back that up?

https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-changes-political-divides-2019-7

20 minutes ago, Frylock said:

Rural area population is not growing, it's shrinking. Source:  https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2018/05/22/demographic-and-economic-trends-in-urban-suburban-and-rural-communities/ 

Urban/suburban areas trend democratic, and that will always be the case. When people are in a melting pot of different backgrounds and ethnicities, they tend to lean more left than the rural areas that are primarily similar demographics.

https://ifstudies.org/blog/the-conservative-fertility-advantage

20 minutes ago, Frylock said:

Your claim that Latinos, Asians, and Blacks are going to boost the Republican party is completely unfounded. For one, they are not a monolith. Mexicans heavily support democrat and have always trended that way, and they helped Biden win Arizona. The Cuban population supported Trump and helped him seal Florida, but the Cubans have their own historical beliefs of backing him. With no Trump, there's no reason to believe that certain minority backgrounds are going to continue to support the Republican party.

I am talking about long term TRENDS. I never said minorities voted majority for Republicans in 2020, the fact that they voted overall for Biden in 2020 is irrelevant to my point. My point is they are TRENDING away from Democrats and towards republicans. If that trend continues, eventually Democrats are going to lose a large advantage with their populations. The data in the original thread post literally shows this.

I know they are not a monolith, but I am talking about them overall. I find it incredibly unlikely it was Trump magic that caused them to trend red. Trump was extremely divisive and barely tried to reach out to them, except for a small amount he did later in 2020. Most likely they weren't coming to republicans because of Trump, it was in-spite of Trump. If Republicans have a less divisive candidate and actually have a plan and message to reach out to minorities they may expand this trend.

20 minutes ago, Frylock said:

Also, you have glossed over that the Republicans have lost the popular vote 5 out of the last 6 presidential election cycles. This is not a fluke, this trend will continue to get worse for Republicans. No data supports their base growing faster than the demographics favoring Democrats.

America doesn't elect presidents based on popular vote, so I don't see why that matters. It might as well be a fluke since 2000 had a difference of 0.5%, and had Republicans lost in 2000 they easily could have won big in Obama's place if Al Gore oversaw a great recession. 

One of the biggest bases of demographics favoring Democrats is the increasing minority population, mostly of Hispanics, but if the trend of them moving away from democrats continues, that would become an advantage for Republicans.

Edited January 21, 2021 by Raze

[Frylock]

10 minutes ago, Raze said:

https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-changes-political-divides-2019-7

https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2019/01/17/generation-z-looks-a-lot-like-millennials-on-key-social-and-political-issues/

10 minutes ago, Raze said:

https://ifstudies.org/blog/the-conservative-fertility-advantage

My source shows rural population shrinking. Suburban areas growing, suburbs are trending democrat.

https://www.brookings.edu/research/bidens-victory-came-from-the-suburbs/%3famp

13 minutes ago, Raze said:

I am talking about long term TRENDS. I never said minorities voted majority for Republicans in 2020, the fact that they voted overall for Biden in 2020 is irrelevant to my point. My point is they are TRENDING away from Democrats and towards republicans. If that trend continues, eventually Democrats are going to lose a large advantage with their populations. The data in the original thread post literally shows this.

I know they are not a monolith, but I am talking about them overall. I find it incredibly unlikely it was Trump magic that caused them to trend red. Trump was extremely divisive and barely tried to reach out to them, except for a small amount he did later in 2020. Most likely they weren't coming to republicans because of Trump, it was in-spite of Trump. If Republicans have a less divisive candidate and actually have a plan and message to reach out to minorities they may expand this trend.

America doesn't elect presidents based on popular vote, so I don't see why that matters. It might as well be a fluke since 2000 had a difference of 0.5%, and had Republicans lost in 2000 they easily could have won big in Obama's place if Al Gore oversaw a great recession. 

One of the biggest bases of demographics favoring Democrats is the increasing minority population, mostly of Hispanics, but if the trend of them moving away from democrats continues, that would become an advantage for Republicans.

And the data I showed about younger generation literally shows they skew democrat. And that urban/suburban areas are growing faster than rural areas, with the former trending more democrat.

And yes popular vote matters... As the country skews more democratic so too will the electoral college. Source: my map about younger folks' votes, urban/suburban areas growing in population faster than rural areas, suburbs trending more democratic.