3 theories to briefly explain what is driving this war - which one is correct?

[GroovyGuru]

I have become quite the geopolitical nerd, and since this war with Iran started 2 weeks ago, I have been consuming a lot of analysis. I typically always do, but these last 2 weeks, YouTube, X, and Telegram have utterly consumed me.

I listen to a variety of different podcasts and shows, and to me it seems there are 3 competing theories (although sometimes similar and intertwined) that explain what is going on. Which one is correct?

1. This war is being fought on the behalf of Israel, because Israel and Jews more broadly enjoy immense control within the American political system, particularly the foreign policy decisions. You guys don't need me to explain this one, it has been covered and broken down extensively for years by all kinds of figures. This explanation for the war (and previous ME wars) is held by a variety of political commentators across the spectrum. TYT, Nick Fuentes, and John Mearsheimer have radically different politics, but all basically agree that the US has been captured by Israeli interests, and this war is meant to help bring about Greater Israel. The vast majority of analysts I listen to hold this theory, at least to some degree (some really zoom in and point to Netanyahu specifically and exclusively, others broaden the scope to "Global Jewry").

2. This is a theory likely held by many, but I most commonly see it argued by Brian Berletic (his YouTube channel is called The New Atlas). In Brian's view, this war (and all previous ME wars) are not fought on behalf of Israel. In fact, the entire notion that a tiny ME country maintains control over the US is preposterous and fantastical. Brian firmly believes Israel instead is simply a pawn on the chess board for the US, and their entire goal is to make Iran capitulate so the US can come in and control this critical global chokepoint, with the sole intention of cutting off energy to China and retarding their ascension. Brian, in his videos, commonly sites policy papers from the 2000s, like 'Which path to Persia? Options for a new American strategy towards Iran', which has laid out step by step exactly the steps the US would take to bring down Iran and cut China off, and many of those steps have actually taken place. It's quite mind blowing.

3. The third theory I've come across is the eschatological lens through which viral Chinese professor Jiang Xueqin has been putting forward. This one is a little bit harder for me to grasp and explain because it's not really logical, and quite conspiratorial in essence. He basically believes that it is secret societies that make decisions and hold the levers of power, and that these people are deeply religious. This war is a religious war, the people in power are trying to create the conditions that will expedite the return of the Messiah and other biblical or religious prophecies. I think he gives a lot of weight to the American Christian Zionists, people like Huckabee. I think people who hold these beliefs also think there is a Jewish element to these secret societies pulling the strings. Sounds kind of crazy, but then again, look at all of the incredibly demonic and diabolical realities related to Epstein. With the immergence of the Epstein Files, it is quite hard to deny that there is not some strange and wicked things taking place in the shadows.

So, what do you think?

 

[Elliott]

It's U.S. debt

 

Israel is a pawn. Oil market control is essential for maintaining the U.S. house of cards(debt/global economy). The Epstein scandal is Trump's reason for himself, the stage that set this opportunity for him(Why Israel exists) is the neo-conservative all bets on corporate salvation(global trade(oil market dependent)) debt bomb.

Edited 9 hours ago by Elliott

[zazen]

I think it’s all of the above but to varying degrees - with Jiang weighting ideology as a driver being the weakest, Israel’s influence being mid, US strategic dominance being the heaviest driver.

Israel is a highly influential node in a larger US imperial system - it can nudge actions at the margins or set the pace or timing of events, but never control the empire to do the events in the first place.

US-Israel interests converge in wanting regional domination. US for grand strategy / control of important choke point, dollar dominance, and an important trade corridor on the largest landmass on earth - Eurasia - which connects to its two rivals (China-Russia).

Israel security and gulf stability to protect oil flows is also important as the global economy runs on it - including petro dollar. But much of the insecurity comes from zero sum thinking around how to go about security which is neoconesque - domination and submission of any defiant / autonomous actors.

They want Iran to capitulate and it won’t because it has a history of dealing with Western imperialism it doesn’t want to repeat - and feels it has the cards not to ie its geographic WMD the strait of Hormuz which their using as we speak to impose costs on the empire.

I’d guess it’s 50% US empire, 30% Israeli influence, 10% domestic politics (Trump / Bibi) , 5% ideaology (Christian Zionism / eschatology), 5% capital interests (MIC, big oil)

Covers what you were asking too.

 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by zazen