A potential Buying Opportunity (Bitcoin)

[vinc3nc]

First of all, this is not financial advice.

For those of you who are into investing and have money on the sidelines waiting to be invested, theres a chance you may be able to buy Bitcoin near $40k in Q4 this year. It might be early October, as the last two bear markets lasted close to 365 days (BTC topped on October 6), or it could happen a little earlier.

There’s a lot of uncertainty around crypto right now, as the world seems to be going through a rough period with wars and global instability. Because of that, it’s difficult to buy anything when sentiment is this negative.

But Bitcoin has always recovered. In 2011 it dropped more than 90%, in 2014 about 86%, in 2018 about 84%, and in 2022 around 77%. The price drops are always huge, and it’s extremely hard to buy when things look bad and hopeless. However, that’s when investors are rewarded the most.

If you buy around $42k and it goes to $200k a few years later, that’s almost a 5x return. That alone might not make you financially free, but where else can you realistically expect that kind of gain with such a strong risk/reward opportunity?

Bitcoin historically follows 4-year cycles. The last three bull runs (including this one) lasted 1064-1071 days, while the last two bear markets lasted around 365 days. This pattern is no coincidence, and it is wise to take advantage of it, until the pattern eventually changes.

That said, nothing is guaranteed. The price might not go that low and you could miss the bottom, or it could even drop below $40k if things really fall apart. But from a long-term perspective, buying around that level could be an excellent opportunity.

I have 8+ years of investing experience, and one thing I’ve learned is that most people don’t buy when prices are low. It’s psychologically difficult to buy when it feels like something is going to zero. Instead, many people end up chasing prices after they’ve already gone up significantly, and eventually make little money, or even lose it.

The most money is often made during bear markets. It all comes down to the entry you get. If you enter well, you can simply sit on your hands and do nothing for a few years.

[LordFall]

Totally agreed. For those who doubt Bitcoin you need an alternative investment that you trust more over the next few years, please build an alternative case. 

Highly recommend that everyone and Leo included read the Bitcoin Standard by Saifedean Ammous. He makes a really clear and strong case for it by taking a look at all the other wealth preservation mechanisms in human history and weighting Bitcoin against them.