Is the government of Iran about to collapse?

[zazen]

Came upon this while chatting with GPT:

”There are two layers of resistance operating at once, and most analysis fails because it collapses them into one.

At the micro level, there is resistance to a repressive, centralized state. That repression is real, harmful, and experienced directly by ordinary people. It expresses itself in protests, social unrest, and demands for reform.

At the macro level, there is resistance by the state itself against external subjugation — sanctions, economic warfare, covert destabilization, and regime-change pressure by a dominant imperial system seeking to discipline a geostrategically important country that refuses submission.

The critical insight is that the macro layer precedes and conditions the micro layer. A state under sustained siege cannot afford openness without exposing vulnerabilities that external powers are actively trying to exploit. As a result, it centralizes, securitizes dissent, and represses — not because repression is ideologically preferred, but because uncertainty under siege is existentially dangerous.

This produces a self-reinforcing loop:

economic pressure (largely sanctions-driven) creates hardship → hardship produces protest → protests are escalated or infiltrated → the state uses force to restore order → that force is framed externally as proof of inherent tyranny → further pressure and sanctions are imposed → hardship deepens. The population becomes both the subject of sympathy and the instrument of leverage.

The irony is that the external power claiming to care about the people’s suffering is structurally responsible for sustaining the conditions that make that suffering unavoidable.

The true regime in need of change is not simply the targeted state, but the global order that arrogates to itself the right to decide which governments are allowed to evolve organically and which must be coerced into collapse. Real reform requires breathing room, not suffocation.

The macro solution, therefore, is not forced liberalization under threat, but a geopolitical order that tolerates plural paths, respects red lines, and allows medium and regional powers sufficient sovereignty to evolve without being turned into proxy battlegrounds. Without that shift, micro-level reform will remain sluggish or non existent — not by culture or ideology, but by structural forces.“

A great geopolitics vid from a Birds Eye view:

Interesting how the left/right wing approach Iran vs Palestine. The above two vids shed light on it.