Ukraine stares down the barrel of population collapse

[Ajay0]

Ukraine is suffering heavy losses of manpower due to the ongoing war.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/12/05/world/society/ukraine-population-collapse/

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Ukrainian authorities are facing a stark quandary as the country spirals into a demographic disaster: Once the war ends, who will be left to pick up the pieces?

Hundreds of thousands of people have been killed and wounded in almost four years of fighting, while millions more have fled the country and births are drying up.

The country has both the highest death rate and lowest birth rate in the world, according to 2024 estimates in the CIA World Factbook: for every birth there are around three deaths.

“Parents take their children out of the country before they reach the age of 18,” she said. Kyiv has barred most men over 18 from leaving the country during the war, although Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy raised the age to 22 in August.

 

 

[BlueOak]

In part this is because eastern cities no longer exist and are under russian control. Largely, though, this was pre the borders being closed.

The war is certainly a factor but this was more or less true for both countries at the start of the war:

https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/09/russia-new-demographic-crisis?lang=en

 

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Now Russia is entering another phase of decline. In 2024, 1.22 million people were born: only slightly more than the all-time recorded low of 1.21 million in 1999. That year won’t hold the record for much longer: the number of births will decline by 3–5 percent each year, and slow growth can only be expected to resume after 2029–2030.

 

To stabilize even at this critically low level, the total fertility rate (the average number of births per woman) must increase from its current level of 1.4 to 1.7–1.8, and remain there until the early to mid-2030s. Amid overall instability, that is virtually impossible without unprecedented spending on family policy.

The key difference between the current demographic crisis and the previous one is that the latter was significantly mitigated by an element that is now absent: immigration. The collapse of the Soviet Union set in motion powerful centripetal flows, as Russian-speaking residents of the former Soviet republics began returning to Russia. In 1994 alone, almost a million people immigrated to Russia.

During the post-Soviet period (1992–2023), 49.1 million people were born in Russia, and 65.9 million died, resulting in a natural population decline of 16.8 million. But 73.6 percent of that natural decline was offset by the arrival of 12.3 million immigrants.

Today, that compensation mechanism is not working. People in Central Asia—traditionally the biggest source of labor migrants to Russia—now have alternative employment opportunities in other countries and at home, while the Russian economy, lacking any prospects for rapid growth, is increasingly unattractive. According to Interior Ministry statistics, there are currently 3–3.5 million legal labor migrants in Russia, compared with about 4.5 million before the COVID-19 pandemic, and 5–7 million in 2012–2013.

A growing number of alternative destinations are opening up for migrants from Central Asia, including the European Union, the Persian Gulf countries, Turkey, and South Korea. At the same time, rising xenophobia in Russian society and the persecution of Central Asians following the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack are making Russia increasingly unattractive as a labor market.

Indeed, Russia has transformed from a center of attraction to a source of emigration. The invasion of Ukraine and subsequent mobilization triggered the largest population outflow in the last twenty years, with about 650,000 people moving abroad. Worse still, this was largely a brain drain, as those who left were predominantly young, highly qualified professionals.

Since then, the initial surge in emigration has subsided, but the population outflow looks set to continue on a smaller scale. Moreover, the potential remains for major new waves of emigration in the event of further mobilization, increased repression, or a drastic economic deterioration.

 

The problem russia faces is not the same one Ukraine does. With Ukraine its losing cities and population centers. With Russia its the lack of money for anything but the war. To provide money for families requires money, and they don't have it, they've cut everything they can.

But war certainly doesn't encourage birth rates in either country.

Russia have tried to solve this by importing labor from Central or east Asia, but more people know that means they can end up facing the barrel of a gun, so they are more wary. That and as the article suggests, Russia isn't the rich country in the east anymore, there are better options to migrate to.

 

Edited January 6 by BlueOak

[Ajay0]

The two world wars which originated in europe and killed over a hundred million people, were said to have been a consequence of failures in diplomacy by short-sighted politicians as per historians.

It is important to learn from the lessons of the european past, and ensure a robust mechanism for diplomacy and dialogue in europe to prevent any habitual return to unnecessary conflicts and wars leading to casualties and injuries.

The UN, NAM and other neutral and unbiased international bodies can play a role in ensuring diplomatic channels for dialogue in Europe as they lack the emotivity and reactivity of european countries associated with the long history of national and regional conflicts over there, and which prevents an impartial observation of the situation and perception of the bigger picture. 

[Ajay0]

Ukraine seems to have a demographic problem even before the war started, as per this report.

https://euobserver.com/health-and-society/ar978eff35

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With peace talks gaining momentum, experts warn that even a swift end to the war may not be enough to reverse the long-term effects of mass displacement, falling birth rates, and the loss of a generation of young families and potential parents."

"It is futile to hope for peace in the coming years. If any truce is achieved, it will not be so long that it will be possible to influence demographic processes … Ukraine faces demographic challenges that no other country has ever faced," Oleksandr Gladun, a doctor of economics at Ukraine's Institute for Demography and Social Studies told EUobserver.

 

 

[BlueOak]

On 21/01/2026 at 8:15 AM, Ajay0 said:

Ukraine seems to have a demographic problem even before the war started, as per this report.

https://euobserver.com/health-and-society/ar978eff35

 

Yes. However this is a European problem, Russia and Ukraine now have the war on top of that. Its also a chinese problem.

Its fixed either by AI in the workforce, a greater focus on space colonization, and/or climate stabalisation (and improvement). All of which people are resisting.

Alternatively by peace, family values and what sadly people see as converse to them: putting sex into a core part of society again (not hiding it behind social or cultural convention). Fertility and sex should be front and center in family values, and children need to again become prioritized, along with the environment, to preserve it to allow for more people. If the environment goes the other way, countries disappear, people can't pay their bills (water/food/energy), health deteriorates faster, and children become a possibility rather than a priority. 

Below is my objective 5.2 GPT's analysis:

European Demographics Context (Pre-Ukraine War vs Post-War)

A recurring claim is that Ukraine’s demographics were already “bad” before the war. That is true, but it is also not unique. Low fertility and population aging were—and remain—structural problems across Europe, including Russia, and even major non-European countries like China.

The correct analytical distinction is between pre-existing demographic trends and war-specific shocks.

1. Fertility Rates (Key Structural Indicator)

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) = average lifetime births per woman
Replacement level ≈ 2.1
Most of Europe has been below replacement for decades.

Pre-War Baseline (2021) vs After 2022

Country - TFR 2021 (pre-war) - TFR 2022 - TFR 2023

Ukraine 1.15 - 0.90 - 0.98
Russia: 1.51 - 1.42 - 1.41
Germany 1.58 - 1.46 - 1.39
Italy 1.25 - 1.24 - 1.20
Poland 1.33 - 1.29 - 1.16
Spain 1.18 - 1.16 - 1.12
France 1.84 - 1.79 - 1.66
United Kingdom 1.58 - 1.56 - 1.56
Bulgaria 1.80 - 1.78 - 1.81
China 1.12 - 1.03 - 1.00

Key point:
Ukraine’s fertility was low before the war, but so was most of Europe’s. Spain, Italy, Poland, Germany, and China were all at similar or only slightly better levels.

2. Europe-Wide Aging (Not a Ukraine-Specific Issue)

As of 2024:

• The EU median age ≈ 44.7 years
• 21.6% of the EU population is 65+

This reflects a continent-wide aging trend, driven by decades of sub-replacement fertility—not conflict.

3. What Actually Changed After 2022 (Ukraine-Specific)

The real demographic distinction is not pre-war weakness, but post-war shock.

After February 2022, Ukraine experienced:

• Large-scale displacement (millions temporarily or permanently abroad)
• Excess mortality from war
• Suppressed births during conflict
• A population decline estimated at ~10 million since the invasion

These are war effects layered on top of an already weak European demographic baseline.

4. Russia’s Demographics Are Also Weak

Russia entered the war with:

• Sub-replacement fertility
• An aging population
• Declining fertility even after 2022

Russia’s demographic trajectory is not structurally strong, despite not facing the same displacement shock as Ukraine.

Edited 3 hours ago by BlueOak

[BlueOak]

On 07/01/2026 at 5:14 AM, Ajay0 said:

The two world wars which originated in europe and killed over a hundred million people, were said to have been a consequence of failures in diplomacy by short-sighted politicians as per historians.

It is important to learn from the lessons of the european past, and ensure a robust mechanism for diplomacy and dialogue in europe to prevent any habitual return to unnecessary conflicts and wars leading to casualties and injuries.

This was the EU.

[Infinity16]

Ukraine has been having this problem since the end of the Soviet era. The war will likely exasterbate this.