Hardkill

Yeah, but hopefully many more voters will hate Trump more than her.

No one Democratic hero the sky is going to save us. Even Newsom still has made it clear that he’s not running this time around. The reality is that the only possible real chance we have of winning, if we even have any real shot left, is for all of us throughout the whole country to unite together as one extremely powerful coalition that would crush Trump and MAGA like we did in 2020. We have to make this a major referendum against Trump and his party, run on Biden and his party historic progressive accomplishments which are still perceived to be center-left, sell a bold liberal vision for the country going forward the way that Democrats in the mid 1900s did, have all of the left leaning media outlets out there destroy Trump and the GOP with their words and mobilize the solid majority of the country to support and vote for ALL Democrats up and down the ballot, have every major grassroots movement all over the country mobilize the solid majority majority of people in this to vote for all Dems up and down the ballot like never before. That’s it.

Most people do! You have it backwards. It would be spineless for Democrats to not stay united under Harris. Party unity matters much more for winning presidential elections than does having some flashy questionable candidate out there who could turn out to be an even greater disappointment than her as candidate. Bill Clinton, for all of his talents during the 90s never even won the popular vote in either the 1992 or 1996 presidential elections. Even those polls, for whatever they are worth show that they prefer any Democrat to be president for the next for years by a lot! Most experts Biden has achieved the greatest domestic accomplishments to compared to any other presidents since LBJ if not since FDR! He also saved our economy and lead it virtually a soft landing, which was supposed to be impossible according to most economists, bankers, investors, business leaders, and many on the Federal Reserve had said before! Btw, if the fact that Democrats have kept over performing in every big election since 2022 to such an historic and extraordinary degree is not proof that most Americans want Democrats much more so than Republicans to be in charge of the country then what is? every political scientist, historian, and even everyone of those schmuck pundits have acknowledged that Biden has presided over a far more successful build up of his party’s coalition than either Bill Clinton or Barack Obama did during their presidencies. Even though, I think Biden should’ve either stayed in the race or resign to let Harris be president, I will say that Democrats overall have been ravenous vengeful beasts for political power.

No, we can’t! The voters will less likely to vote for the Dem nominee because it will cause them to question the governance of the party in power! She was already picked in the 2024 primaries as the backup option. We have to move on and unite under her now!

Actually, if there is any consolation, the VP has the greatest name recognition compared to every other politician holding an office throughout the whole country, second only to the POTUS.

Well, he now said that we should united Harris even though we lost the incumbency advantage to at least save the no contest key for the party. We now cannot afford to have a blood miserable chaotic open convention for the Dem nomination. If that happens then we will 100% lose like the Dems did in 1968, 1980, and 2016! I really hope you’re right, Leo.

US History has shown that VP candidates have never made any real difference in the electability the of the ticket. A good VP candidate only matters for improving the party’s chances for winning the following presidential election by having a strong heir apparent or consensus nominee for the next presidential election. A great sitting VP only matters if the sitting president dies in office or is forced to resign. In that case, that VP immediately would take over as a truly transformational president like how Teddy Roosevelt took over as president in 1901 after President McKinley was assassinated during that time. A second example was when Truman took over as president after FDR died in office in 1945 and became one of the ten greatest presidents in US History. A third example was LBJ taking over as president and become such a progressive transformational leader for the country after JFK was assassinated in 1963.

They all got what they wanted.

The Devil has won, Trump, Putin, and Orban, have won… We must all brace ourselves for the looming apocalypse.

Allan Litchtman said on Twitter: "Biden has dropped out. But the Democrats could still salvage the contest key if they unite behind Harris!"

An open convention would divide and weaken Harris and the Democrats, which will cause them to lose to Trump and MAGA in 2024! Look what happened in 1968, 1980, and 2016!

Then again, most Americans don't want Trump.

I hope so.....😭 I am very terrified about this being a Hillary Clinton 2.0 situation. I also am very concerned about the potential lawsuits that the Republicans are now threatening to do over this.

Many of those same type of advisors caused the Democrats to lose to Trump and his party in 2016. This is a horrendous disaster!

No, Trump now has a better shot of winning, because the Democrats gave up the incumbency advantage.

I am very heart broken about this! The media, the donors, and many of those centrist/establishment Dems who forced him out are to be blamed for this! Poor Joe Biden! I wish he had at least resigned the presidency in order to keep the incumbency advantage for the Democrats. I really fear that there is no chaotic open convention. Then Harris and the Democrats will lose to Trump!

So, are you able to protest against the government in times of need without getting arrested or punished by the government for it?

So, the leaders of the country you lived in didn't use the military or law enforcement to terrorize its citizens to make sure that the people "got in line" with what the ruler or the ruling class wanted?

Besides Leo, has anyone lived in Hungary or in any other corrupt eastern European country? If you have, then how scary was it living in any of those countries?

The radical right-wing SCOTUS essentially granted him full immunity from all "official acts" done by the president and the terror of project 2025. Corporations have become more powerful and more developed than ever before. The Republicans and the far-right wing leaders in our country have become more sinister, more heartless, more unethical, and more insane than ever before. They are all willing to do whatever it takes to bring our country back to a 19th century ultra-Christian nationalist regime and also allow all corporations and wealthy elite to have the freedom to rape and pillage every worker and every citizen throughout the entire country.

I understand where you're coming from. A lot of people have felt that way before. However, my last post explains a lot about some of the keys that @Raze that raze asked. The keys don't work for elections in other countries because each country's election system is different. However, keys 10 and 11, the no major foreign/military failure and the major foreign/military success keys do involve measuring how successful and how unsuccessful the US government and the president's administration has been with handling military/foreign affairs that occur under the watch of the sitting president. Not only has he predicted 10 elections in a row. He also used the very same keys in the very same way for EVERY presidential election from 1860 to 1980 in retrospect with a 99.99% success rate as well. *1876 was another stolen election. You gotta read the 13 keys book or watch the Lichtman YT channel. You'll find the key to be surprisingly very objective. Also, his book give highly relevant background history for each presidential election since 1860. Plus, studying US History in-depth really helps one understand why and how the people in our country have elected our leaders ever since around 1856, which was the year that all adult white male laymen in the US were granted the right to vote.

Cenk really gets put in his place by Professor Lichtman:

- Even though the Dems won the midterms overall, they still lost more US seats in the US House in 2022, than they had in either 2018 and 2020. All of the US House elections in each midterms best represent whether the majority of people are more inclined to favor Republican control of government. That's just one key. - To get the no-contest key, the incumbent party candidate running for president or the actual incumbent candidate running for re-election has win more than 65% of the votes and delegates in the primaries. Biden won about 87% of the total popular vote and almost all of the delegates by the end of the 2024 Dem primaries. - Yeah, the third party might actually turn against Biden and his party, if RFK jr. gets on enough ballot and polls at least 10% on average. We have to wait and see until mid to late August. - There has always been all kind of protests in certain parts of the country since the beginning of our country. However, in order to turn the social unrest key against the party in power, there has to be such historic widespread unrest to the degree that occurred in 2020 because of the BLM riots, widespread cabin fever from COVID, and Trump's extremely divisive and inflammatory rhetoric during that year. Despite their being some notable protests on the war in Gaza during the late spring and early summer, they've never reached anywhere near the level of social unrest we had in either 1968 over the war in Vietnam and racial riots out in many streets around the country. Plus, the Israeli protests have been petering out. Though Lichtman is still waiting until sometime in August, which is the month when the Dem convention will happen, to make sure that there's no explosion of widespread social unrest before he calls that key 100% good for Biden and his party. - The Scandal key flips against the party holding the white house if the president himself or anybody else within his administration was truly involved in a scandal. According to his book on his system, "Scandals reach the threshold needed to topple key 9 only when there is bipartisan recognition of the problems besetting an administration. The voting public heavily discounts allegations of wrongdoing that appear to be the result of partisanship by the opposition party. On several occasions, revelations of wrongdoing became lost in the partisan wrangling of election years." Bill clinton's sex scandal towards the end of his presidency is a prime example of that. Another example, was during the 2nd Truman administration (1949 to 1953) whereas number of government officials who worked for Truman, got busted for being involved a number of scandals. Truman didn't handle these situations well and because he was their boss, Truman was held very responsible for having this happen in his administration under his watch. Both Republicans and Democrats official throughout the whole country totally agreed that Truman should be blamed for all of the corruption that went on in his administration. Hunter Biden doesn't work in Joe Biden's administration and he's also not the one running for president. Hunter has never even been a politician before. Biden's age or supposed health issues is not a crime and it's certainly not an act of corruption. I am getting tired of this ableism and ageism. By your logic, you might as well have said that when first Obama ran for president in 2008, that him being a black presidential nominee was a scandal. You might as well as say that when Hillary Clinton became the official Democratic nominee for president in 2016, that her being a woman presidential nominee was a scandal. - To get either of two charisma/national hero keys, a presidential nominee has to demonstrate such broad exceptional appeal that transcends all parties and reaches across the political spectrum. Trump has a certain kind of charisma. However, he has only ever appealed to the Republican/conservative base. He lost the popular by a lot in 2016 and even much more so in 2020. Moreover, for whatever worth approval ratings have in terms of winning elections, Trump never had approval ratings average of 50% or higher during any point in his presidency. At least Biden started out his presidency with higher than 50% approval rating average. Only Teddy Roosevelt, FDR, JFK, Reagan, and Obama in 2008 won each of the respective charisma keys for each of the presidential elections they ran in. Each of them have higher than 50% approval rating averages at various times during each of their presidencies and each of the won popular vote in each of their presidential elections. Grant and Eisenhower were the only two war presidents since 1860 who won those key based more on them being these once or twice in a century heroic war leaders as top commanders of the whole US military during the Civil War and WWII respectively. Without the incredible leadership of General Grant during the Civil War then Lincoln, the Republican party, and the Union probably would not have won that war and freed all of the slaves. Without the historic leadership of General Eisenhower during the WWII, the US and the rest of the Allies might've very well have lost the war to the Nazis and the Axis Powers.

Approval ratings don't matter. Even Michael Moore who has been a life long political activist and foresaw Trump winning in 2016 and Biden winning in 2020, says that approval ratings have become worthless, especially in this day and age. Otherwise, the Dems would've lost badly in 2022 midterms under Biden's watch. Besides, Reagan still was considered too old and showed real signs of early stage Alzheimer's at the age of 73 (which was like 83 years old for those days). The mainstream and social media has unfairly dramatized and demonized Biden's age issue, even he has done a terrific job as president. No, again, he predicted the 2000 election correctly and proved to US commissions on Civil Rights how corrupt right-wingers on SCOTUS rigged it for Bush. It was an incredibly close election and it was legitimately not handled fairly by the courts and many ballots were thrown out through voter suppression. Read it up on the official government website online. Furthermore, ever since 2000, the electoral college has increasingly skewed more and more and more unfairly in the favor of GOP presidential nominee winning the electoral college without having to win popular vote. That's why beginning in 2004, Lichtman begin predicting only the winner of the electoral college in 2004 for following presidential election. He didn't predict that Trump would win the popular vote in 2016. He predicted that he would win the electoral college, thereby winning, the presidency back then. You gotta read his whole book and watch his YT channel. He's more than happy to answer any of your question for a small donation fee or joining YT channel membership.

The arguments that Cenk made were not as strong as the professor's. Cenk also comes off as being so arrogant and foolhardy. The professor has even more common sense and understanding about these matters than Cenk does by far. Lichtman's in-depth analysis and understanding about US politics rivals that of John Mearsheimer's analysis on international politics and military affairs.