Hardkill

I am very heart broken about this! The media, the donors, and many of those centrist/establishment Dems who forced him out are to be blamed for this! Poor Joe Biden! I wish he had at least resigned the presidency in order to keep the incumbency advantage for the Democrats. I really fear that there is no chaotic open convention. Then Harris and the Democrats will lose to Trump!

So, are you able to protest against the government in times of need without getting arrested or punished by the government for it?

So, the leaders of the country you lived in didn't use the military or law enforcement to terrorize its citizens to make sure that the people "got in line" with what the ruler or the ruling class wanted?

Besides Leo, has anyone lived in Hungary or in any other corrupt eastern European country? If you have, then how scary was it living in any of those countries?

The radical right-wing SCOTUS essentially granted him full immunity from all "official acts" done by the president and the terror of project 2025. Corporations have become more powerful and more developed than ever before. The Republicans and the far-right wing leaders in our country have become more sinister, more heartless, more unethical, and more insane than ever before. They are all willing to do whatever it takes to bring our country back to a 19th century ultra-Christian nationalist regime and also allow all corporations and wealthy elite to have the freedom to rape and pillage every worker and every citizen throughout the entire country.

I understand where you're coming from. A lot of people have felt that way before. However, my last post explains a lot about some of the keys that @Raze that raze asked. The keys don't work for elections in other countries because each country's election system is different. However, keys 10 and 11, the no major foreign/military failure and the major foreign/military success keys do involve measuring how successful and how unsuccessful the US government and the president's administration has been with handling military/foreign affairs that occur under the watch of the sitting president. Not only has he predicted 10 elections in a row. He also used the very same keys in the very same way for EVERY presidential election from 1860 to 1980 in retrospect with a 99.99% success rate as well. *1876 was another stolen election. You gotta read the 13 keys book or watch the Lichtman YT channel. You'll find the key to be surprisingly very objective. Also, his book give highly relevant background history for each presidential election since 1860. Plus, studying US History in-depth really helps one understand why and how the people in our country have elected our leaders ever since around 1856, which was the year that all adult white male laymen in the US were granted the right to vote.

Cenk really gets put in his place by Professor Lichtman:

- Even though the Dems won the midterms overall, they still lost more US seats in the US House in 2022, than they had in either 2018 and 2020. All of the US House elections in each midterms best represent whether the majority of people are more inclined to favor Republican control of government. That's just one key. - To get the no-contest key, the incumbent party candidate running for president or the actual incumbent candidate running for re-election has win more than 65% of the votes and delegates in the primaries. Biden won about 87% of the total popular vote and almost all of the delegates by the end of the 2024 Dem primaries. - Yeah, the third party might actually turn against Biden and his party, if RFK jr. gets on enough ballot and polls at least 10% on average. We have to wait and see until mid to late August. - There has always been all kind of protests in certain parts of the country since the beginning of our country. However, in order to turn the social unrest key against the party in power, there has to be such historic widespread unrest to the degree that occurred in 2020 because of the BLM riots, widespread cabin fever from COVID, and Trump's extremely divisive and inflammatory rhetoric during that year. Despite their being some notable protests on the war in Gaza during the late spring and early summer, they've never reached anywhere near the level of social unrest we had in either 1968 over the war in Vietnam and racial riots out in many streets around the country. Plus, the Israeli protests have been petering out. Though Lichtman is still waiting until sometime in August, which is the month when the Dem convention will happen, to make sure that there's no explosion of widespread social unrest before he calls that key 100% good for Biden and his party. - The Scandal key flips against the party holding the white house if the president himself or anybody else within his administration was truly involved in a scandal. According to his book on his system, "Scandals reach the threshold needed to topple key 9 only when there is bipartisan recognition of the problems besetting an administration. The voting public heavily discounts allegations of wrongdoing that appear to be the result of partisanship by the opposition party. On several occasions, revelations of wrongdoing became lost in the partisan wrangling of election years." Bill clinton's sex scandal towards the end of his presidency is a prime example of that. Another example, was during the 2nd Truman administration (1949 to 1953) whereas number of government officials who worked for Truman, got busted for being involved a number of scandals. Truman didn't handle these situations well and because he was their boss, Truman was held very responsible for having this happen in his administration under his watch. Both Republicans and Democrats official throughout the whole country totally agreed that Truman should be blamed for all of the corruption that went on in his administration. Hunter Biden doesn't work in Joe Biden's administration and he's also not the one running for president. Hunter has never even been a politician before. Biden's age or supposed health issues is not a crime and it's certainly not an act of corruption. I am getting tired of this ableism and ageism. By your logic, you might as well have said that when first Obama ran for president in 2008, that him being a black presidential nominee was a scandal. You might as well as say that when Hillary Clinton became the official Democratic nominee for president in 2016, that her being a woman presidential nominee was a scandal. - To get either of two charisma/national hero keys, a presidential nominee has to demonstrate such broad exceptional appeal that transcends all parties and reaches across the political spectrum. Trump has a certain kind of charisma. However, he has only ever appealed to the Republican/conservative base. He lost the popular by a lot in 2016 and even much more so in 2020. Moreover, for whatever worth approval ratings have in terms of winning elections, Trump never had approval ratings average of 50% or higher during any point in his presidency. At least Biden started out his presidency with higher than 50% approval rating average. Only Teddy Roosevelt, FDR, JFK, Reagan, and Obama in 2008 won each of the respective charisma keys for each of the presidential elections they ran in. Each of them have higher than 50% approval rating averages at various times during each of their presidencies and each of the won popular vote in each of their presidential elections. Grant and Eisenhower were the only two war presidents since 1860 who won those key based more on them being these once or twice in a century heroic war leaders as top commanders of the whole US military during the Civil War and WWII respectively. Without the incredible leadership of General Grant during the Civil War then Lincoln, the Republican party, and the Union probably would not have won that war and freed all of the slaves. Without the historic leadership of General Eisenhower during the WWII, the US and the rest of the Allies might've very well have lost the war to the Nazis and the Axis Powers.

Approval ratings don't matter. Even Michael Moore who has been a life long political activist and foresaw Trump winning in 2016 and Biden winning in 2020, says that approval ratings have become worthless, especially in this day and age. Otherwise, the Dems would've lost badly in 2022 midterms under Biden's watch. Besides, Reagan still was considered too old and showed real signs of early stage Alzheimer's at the age of 73 (which was like 83 years old for those days). The mainstream and social media has unfairly dramatized and demonized Biden's age issue, even he has done a terrific job as president. No, again, he predicted the 2000 election correctly and proved to US commissions on Civil Rights how corrupt right-wingers on SCOTUS rigged it for Bush. It was an incredibly close election and it was legitimately not handled fairly by the courts and many ballots were thrown out through voter suppression. Read it up on the official government website online. Furthermore, ever since 2000, the electoral college has increasingly skewed more and more and more unfairly in the favor of GOP presidential nominee winning the electoral college without having to win popular vote. That's why beginning in 2004, Lichtman begin predicting only the winner of the electoral college in 2004 for following presidential election. He didn't predict that Trump would win the popular vote in 2016. He predicted that he would win the electoral college, thereby winning, the presidency back then. You gotta read his whole book and watch his YT channel. He's more than happy to answer any of your question for a small donation fee or joining YT channel membership.

The arguments that Cenk made were not as strong as the professor's. Cenk also comes off as being so arrogant and foolhardy. The professor has even more common sense and understanding about these matters than Cenk does by far. Lichtman's in-depth analysis and understanding about US politics rivals that of John Mearsheimer's analysis on international politics and military affairs.

He predicted Reagan's victory in 1984, back when most people thought that Reagan was too old and showed serious signs of Alzheimer's. Besides, Harris as the VP has always been Biden's backup in case he doesn't make it for another 1, 2, 3, or 4 years. Everyone knows that. Most people in this country would at least rather have Harris be president than some convicted felon psycho egomaniac monster that Trump I am sorry Leo, but I have to disagree with you on this one. With all due respect you're not a top US historian and you haven't lived nearly as long as he has. Moreover, your track record of prediction elections hasn't been as great as the professor's has been. He also has predicted as many Republicans wins as he has predicted Democratic wins for presidential elections since 1984. Plus, his system and expertise has worked in retrospectively for every presidential election since 1860. You thought that Ron DeSantis would be a threat to Biden in 2024, and yet he turned out to be such a weak candidate in the 2024 GOP primaries. Lichtman actually could tell a couple months out from the end of his campaign that Desantis had no appeal and that none of the candidates could beat Trump for the GOP nomination. He predicted that Trump would be impeached during his first term as president and also foresaw Trump getting convicted in the NY election interference case. Optics and vibes only matter the most in every non-presidential election because most people don't pay attention to any of those races and most people who their state level, local level, or congressional level leaders are. However, everyone in the country knows who the POTUS is and everyone know who the presidential candidates are in the presidential general are by Labor day. If you think that optics and vibes alone will save Trump this time, then you are sorely mistaken. If presidential elections were solely based on optics and vibes alone, then Trump who ran a much more energetic campaign than Biden in 2020 would've won re-election back then. Teddy Roosevelt, who was one of the most charismatic presidents in US History lost to Woodrow Wilson, who had much less appealing vibe as a candidate, lost in the 1912 presidential election. I respectfully ask you have an open-mind about this.

I really wish there was a way to mobilize many millions of people to do a civil rights movement against the Supreme Court and the Republicans in Congress like MLK and Malcolm X did in the 50s and 60s. How can political activists ever fight back against MAGA if Trump gains "absolute power"? I am very terrified of our rights and our money being taken away from us by the right-wing. I am already imagining 90+% of the whole country being enslaved in MAGA concentration camps like the way Nazis imprisoned and murdered the Jews, the Polish, and anyone else who stood against their evil regime.

He gave a really bad speech at the RNC. It's wasn't just racist, xenophobic, and divisive as part of his M.O. His speech was not even captivating at all. He sounded he was slurring, had low energy, and sounded more psychotic than he was either in 2016 or 2020. In fact, all of his most recent speeches have shown that he's not as charismatic as he used to be. He now comes off as an mentally unstable old man who's still trying to grab absolute power, and needs to be seriously sent to either a mental institution or a maximum security prison. He's become like that old Mad King in GoT.

Why would the US economy be better under when he totally fucked it up under his watch during his first term as president?

Sorry, I meant the Polls have now been greatly underestimating Biden and every one else in his party since 2022. The pollsters have been trying to overcorrect from how they really underestimated Trump and his party in 2020. Truman still had about the same level of approval rating before he won another term. ask any political scientist or historian about this. THey tell you what I've been telling you. Each election has different scenarios and yet the polls has always been prone to errors even still to this day. The polls and the mainstream thought in 2016 that Hillary Clinton would win the presidency and they were wrong. The polls for the 2022 midterms, the mainstream media, right-wing media, TYT, and Secular Talk for the 2022 all predicted a red wave. Yet, the Dems 2022 won overall even though the party that controls the White House generally loses the midterms. Btw, Biden has been much more successful political in building his party's coalition during his presidency than either Bill Clinton or Barack Obama were during each of their presidencies. Obama was partly responsible for the historic 2010, 2014 midterms, and for not playing hardball enough to really try to warn the American people about a possible Trump presidency. Hillary Clinton also didn't do enough to help build and unite the Democratic coalition. Although, it didn't really matter if someone else besides Hillary was the Democratic nominee instead back then. The main overarching reason the Dems lost to Trump back then was because too many people in the country felt like Obama and his whole party let the country down along with the fact that Hillary Clinton was not an exceptionally inspirational candidate. The 13 keys, which predicted a Trump win, explains all of this in a sensible and easy to understand manner.

No, his approval rating was about the same as Biden's was before he won the 1948 presidential. You read that gallup poll wrong. It was after Truman began his second term as president that his approval rating averages went back up to around 70%. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ Polls have no been greatly underestimating Biden and every one else in his party since 2022. The pollsters have been trying to overcorrect from how they really overestimated Trump and his party in 2020. In the 1988 presidential election, Dukakis, the Democratic nominee was ahead of HW Bush by about 17 points on average until late August when the polls began to gradually switch in favor of HW Bush. Ultimately, Bush won that election in a 400+ electoral vote landslide. According to the article on Michael Dukakis 1988 presidential campaign on wikipedia: "A poll conducted on July 21 and 22 of 1988 found that Dukakis had expanded the size of his lead over Bush to 17 points, with 55% of voters surveyed saying they would prefer Dukakis to win, compared to 38% for Bush.[30] His lead soon began to shrink, however. For example, on July 30, Dukakis criticized the Reagan administration's handling of ethical issues,[31] to which Ronald Reagan himself responded by describing Dukakis as an "invalid", after which his poll numbers dropped by 5 points overnight.[7] By August 11, Dukakis' lead over Bush had shrunk to 7 points,[32] and by August 24, Bush had gained a 4-point lead over Dukakis. Of the dramatic shift in Dukakis' poll numbers, Mervin Field said, "I have never seen anything like this, this kind of swing in favorability ratings, ever since I have seen polls, going back to 1936."[33] Later that year, after the second Bush-Dukakis debate occurred on October 13, Dukakis' numbers dropped by 7 points that night, largely due to his response to a question about whether he would support the death penalty for someone if they raped and murdered his wife, Kitty Dukakis, being perceived as emotionless by voters (although others considered the question inherently unfair).[34][35]" Again, polls have always been off in many different ways for a very long time. Even top political scientists and historians have talked in length about this:

He proved to the US Commission on Civil Rights that 2000 was a stolen election because Gore really won Florida, but corrupt conservatives on SCOTUS didn't allow for a true recount of all of the votes in Florida. Lichtman and other experts besides hime proved that they were a lot more that weren't fairly account for.

They aren't subjective. They are based on empirical data, real US political history, and objective expertise. Read his book carefully and follow his Youtube channel. Do you have a 100% successful track record of understanding and predicting presidential elections like he does? Are you even a top expert on US History and US politics? Lichtman does say that Trump having been the very first former president and very first presidential nominee from a major party to be a convicted felon and many timed indicted criminal could "blow up the keys" and not foresee that Trump will lose, regardless of what the keys predict. Though we really have to see how that plays out. However, Cenk is dead wrong about BIden having no chance to win and he's mistaken that someone like Shapiro, Newsom, Whitmer, or Beshear can come in riding on a white horse to "save the Democratic party" and "save our country" from losing in 2024 like some kind of superhero. No governor, no Senator, no Cabinet member in the Biden administration, no Dem Congressperson, no popular liberal/progressive celebrity, no angel, and no god from the sky is going to come save us from Trump. Just like how no one in the law enforcement and no one in the military is going to save us from Trump either. The choice is either standing united behind Biden or standing united behind Harris to defeat Trump and MAGA Trump. That's it!

The Key factors or the fundamental factors for every presidential election in US history since Republicans vs. Democrats first competed against each other for political power in 1860 have always been the same. Let's see what happens when he makes his final prediction in mid to late August for 2024. I bet that he will be right again.

You know, they've said about every presidential election. Lichtman has always been told during every presidential election cycle that "you gotta change your keys because we have for the first time ever a black presidential nominee..." or "we have a woman presidential nominee for the first time ever" or "we've never had someone as crazy as Trump in 2016..." or "this is the first presidential election where we've had massive amount of social media being involved in this election..." His 13 keys system have worked for every presidential election since 1860 and he has predicted every presidential since 1984 which was before many of us were born. Read his book. Also, Biden's age related issue is the same as Reagan's was in 1980 and 1984. Plus, Trump's conviction arguably cancels out Biden's age related issue if not more. Polls months or even a few weeks out from an election are in accurate. At the end of the day, US History has always shown how Americans have always voted in presidential elections. That may really change if the whole election system changes one day.

It looks like a majority of the people in the comments section thought Lichtman won. Cenk keeps making too many highly exaggerated negative takes on Biden and the Democrats. I used to think he was more reasonable, but now I see that he has become another toxic political commentator, whose contributing to the divisions in our country. Moreover, he always comes up with many of these long-shot ideas he has for fixing the whole system and winning elections. His ideas haven't ever worked and won't ever work for the foreseeable. He wasted so much time and money by doing his own presidential run which accomplished nothing at all. He is smart and has made a lot of good political analyses, but at the end of the day, Cenk is just another obnoxious pundit.

Harry Truman did in 1948. Every pollster back then mistakenly thought he would lose to his GOP opponent Dewey. Truman was also about as unpopular as Biden has been. The polls have very likely underestimated Biden’s true strength. Do you understand that the polls have greatly underestimated the strength of virtually every Democratic candidate since 2022? The polls were off in 2020, 2022, 2023, and 2024. Even pollsters and pundits have conceded that polling has been a crisis!

But it’s not his accomplishments. Most people don’t know who is and don’t trust him outside of California to run the presidency.

Poll more than 1 month out from an election are prone to many errors and have no predictive value.

That's absolutely not true at all. Biden's Incumbency still is a major electoral advantage for him even in this day and age because: Biden really is the only one (or Harris if Biden resigns the presidency to her) who run on all of the historic accomplishments he has achieved for the whole country. Someone like Newsom can't claim any credit for any of those accomplishments: He has presided over very high real GDP growth during his presidency: Economic well-being: Real GDP growth indicates an increase in the production of goods and services, which leads to: + Job creation and lower unemployment + Higher incomes and purchasing power + Improved standard of living Economic stability: A growing economy is often associated with: + Low inflation or stable prices + Increased investment and innovation + Reduced risk of economic downturns or recessions Government revenue: A growing economy generates more tax revenue, enabling the government to: + Invest in public services and infrastructure + Reduce debt and deficits + Implement policies and programs that benefit citizens International competitiveness: A country with strong real GDP growth may: + Attract foreign investment and trade + Increase its global influence and competitiveness + Enhance its reputation as a stable and prosperous nation the most amount of jobs created compared to any other president in US History and real incomes have grown a lot for most americans. Plus, don't forget that he has become the most pro union president since FDR or Truman in the 40s. The Federal Reserve, most economist, and business leaders have said that this has been a really good economy. Btw, we are headed for a soft landing! Hardly any economist out there thought that was going to be impossible to achieve! Our economy has been in the best shape in the world! According to WSJ article: According to Paul Krugman in one of his latest articles, "Americans are much more positive about their state or local economy than they are about the national economy. You see this in the Federal Reserve’s survey of household well-being and also in a Wall Street Journal poll of swing states: Plus, Biden has been the only one who has proven to the public that he defeated Trump. He even has mentioned a number of times how much of a loser Trump is. That projects to the public Biden's aura of being the reigning champion of the country.