Hardkill

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Everything posted by Hardkill

  1. Oh yeah, he definitely does. Now, what do you think about how Biden and Trump are doing from an optics or charisma point of view?
  2. True. I guess that's because the commission forced them to be.
  3. So, I am guessing that this debate doesn't really matter to anyone.
  4. Oh yeah, I see what you mean. Actually, I think that's what both the TYT and The Hill/Rising political analysts, pundits, and commentators were saying regarding Trump's tremendous losses in both female suburban voters and white voters.
  5. I see. So, a very large sample may not matter much if it isn't relevant enough to what you're trying to forecast. You're also saying that it doesn't sound like his methodology has been peer-reviewed well enough. Correct? Btw, in relation to blacks for Trump, it seems that Trump has been gaining more support from blacks than he did for the 2016 election. It's the same thing that going on with the increase in Latino support that Trump has gotten compared to the last election. This why I am actually concerned that Biden hasn't been getting as much support from both African-Americans and Latinos nationwide, especially amongst young or younger African-Americans and Latinos nationwide.
  6. Recently, it seems that Trump has increased his support from minorities, including both black and latino voters, after working very hard on influencing a significant number of them to support and vote for him. For example, Trump pardoned that African-American female criminal justice reform advocate Alice Johnson after she served 21 years in prison. On the other hand, they say that Biden’s average leads with both black and latinos are significantly lower than Clinton’s around this time four years ago. How much do you guys think this matters for Biden? Does he have enough support from minorities?
  7. Yeah, you make a valid point. Though, what about Stantic saying that his lab’s analysis has a significantly larger sample size than any of the opinion polls?
  8. Oh yeah, Trump has zero morals. I actually sympathize with Hunter. It seems like he has already had his fair share of difficulties with his own life.
  9. I fully agree with the idea of having a socialist/capitalist hybrid system. In my opinion, it is the best system that so far exists in our world. Don't some countries like the UK have that kind of hybrid system too?
  10. Yeah, I am actually anxious to see his result (though I do believe that he will very likely be right).
  11. This may be a stupid question, but do you think that one day in the future there will be ex-convicts out there who will actually have a real chance of winning a future presidential election?
  12. Yeah, that's why I don't like FoxNews at all. However, what about that article I linked underneath the Norpoth vid that discusses the prediction of this data guru/professor Bela Stantic, who also thinks that Trump is going to win again? He said that "his lab’s analysis is more reliable than opinion polling, because it involves a significantly larger sample size." He also says that "people also tend to be more honest when expressing their opinions on social media than when a pollster quizzes them." Furthermore, he said that he finds Biden to be surprisingly more polarizing than Hillary after analyzing the comments on Biden's social media posts. Furthermore, this data guru correctly predicted the 2016 US election, Scott Morrison’s win last year, the Brexit vote, correctly predicted last 7 Melbourne cups, and a number of past major events correctly. This really worries me even more than Norpoth's prediction. Here another website for the same article on Bela Stantic and his 2020 presidential election prediction that I just posted before: https://www.news.com.au/technology/science/us-election-data-guru-bela-stantic-reveals-donald-trump-is-on-track-to-win-again/news-story/cc04c8525c3046c2387092d2cfaafa38
  13. Yeah, I didn't get why he did not include polls in his "model." However, he seems confident that he is right because he has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996. He further claims that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.
  14. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/us-election-data-guru-bela-stantic-says-donald-trump-on-track-to-win-again/5PZYFOQKCSBAOUAO6NXNSLP4UY/ I just found these sources and they now really worry me.
  15. Yeah, it's now looking like Biden has a 90-95% chance of winning decisively if not winning in a landslide. Even the guy in the vid I posted on here says that he's guessing that Biden will win because neither candidate so far has been exceptionally charismatic nor have been able to persuasively convince enough undecided voters on how they have or will be able to effectively help manage or help solve the terrible current events going on within the entire country. Due to that reason along with the fact that so many people out there feel like they have been suffering so greatly under Trump's watch, is why Charlie in this posted vid so far predicts that Biden will win. However, he said that that is his prediction for now because he still believes that Trump could still turn it around by improving his campaign strategy and charisma performance by applying techniques like the ones he talks about in the above vid.
  16. But girls thoughts and emotions change like the wind. So, in the future, he can try again.
  17. Then, have u been observer RVATs, Lincoln Project, and so many out there who totally regretted voting for Trump?
  18. Here we go again. The usual line you right-wing conservatives say which is "he/she is a socialist." Most people don't even believe that Biden is a socialist.