### Preliminary Analysis of the Assassination of Hezbollah’s Secretary-General
- Sameh Askar
Let’s try to summarize the overall context and use straightforward language to explain the complexities involved.
**First:** It appears that Israel and the United States have been collaborating over the years to plant high-precision surveillance devices in the southern suburbs of Beirut (Dahieh). This would explain why all assassinations of Hezbollah leaders occur there; Israel seems to have limited intelligence beyond this area. Every prominent party leader who has been targeted was located in Dahieh.
This situation requires thorough sweeping and review of the area, which I believe Lebanon is not currently capable of conducting effectively on its own. Assistance from foreign powers, particularly Russia and China, may be needed—not Iran, as it is evident that the Iranians are also not as advanced in this field, for reasons not to be discussed here.
**Second:** It also seems that Israel and the United States have managed to infiltrate an important faction of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). This doesn't necessarily mean they have recruited agents within, but they might have planted surveillance devices among them or in their usual locations. A major piece of evidence supporting this is that whenever there is an assassination in Dahieh, an Iranian advisor from the IRGC is also involved. This suggests prior knowledge of the movements of these leaders.
The Iranians urgently need to initiate a scientific and political revolution to salvage what they can, as any escalation could result in the assassination of high-ranking Iranian state leaders, or even the Supreme Leader himself. The dimensions of this revolution should include cooperation with the Russians to uncover and analyze these developments, as Russia is highly advanced in this field and possesses the technical expertise to detect Western spying methods. The Russians have a history of dealing with such techniques, from the Chechen and Georgian conflicts to the current situation in Ukraine.
**Third:** The Middle East is likely heading towards a significant regional war in the near future. The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah would eliminate any prospects of "Lebanese political harmony," paving the way for more extreme and aggressive leadership within Hezbollah. The Secretary-General was not just a political party leader; he was an inspiration, an ideology, and a charismatic figure who wielded wide influence in Lebanon and managed to foster communication with different Lebanese factions. Over 20 years, he established a political consensus that effectively shaped the Lebanese scene.
With the assassination of Nasrallah, a new leader will emerge who may not possess the patience and self-restraint Nasrallah demonstrated over the past year. Nasrallah’s approach was characterized by measured responses, which led to criticism and accusations of failing Gaza, as he insisted on referring to Lebanon as the "supporting front." Although this stance had adverse security consequences, leading to these breaches, he maintained this position until the last moment.
As of now, we do not know who the new leader will be or what their character and policies will be like, but it is likely they will come with a dual motivation of revenge and self-affirmation. These emotions are enough to trigger an escalation and a demonstration of power that Nasrallah deliberately refrained from showing in the recent period.
**Fourth:** The new leader of Hezbollah will likely be pressured to intensify attacks and use weapons that have not previously been deployed.
**Fifth:** Hezbollah’s allies within the "Axis of Resistance" will also likely escalate their attacks in a show of solidarity and unity of stance. We might see widespread acts of retaliation, given Nasrallah’s central role as an inspiring leader within this axis. His support for other factions, especially in Yemen, has been significant, and we may see more assertive actions from the Yemenis as a result.
**Sixth and finally:** Those who predict or promote the collapse of Hezbollah or the resistance clearly do not understand the ideological and psychological makeup of the "Muslim fighter," who views such incidents as part of God's decrees. Such events do not provoke overwhelming anger, weakness, or exaggerated mourning. Instead, Nasrallah would transform into a popular icon and legend in both Lebanese and Arab contexts. His assassination at the hands of Israel would grant him power and standing not just in the Shia community but also within the Sunni community, as he gave his life in their defense.
In conclusion, the assassination of Nasrallah is a crucial chapter in fostering Sunni-Shia solidarity against occupation. As the saying goes, every cloud has a silver lining; this event has completely discredited the notion of "Shia collaboration with Israel," which has been widely promoted in the Sunni community. This narrative was spread by Wahhabi propaganda over the past two decades to justify sectarian massacres and to solidify the power and influence of jihadist factions that emerged from Wahhabi ideology specifically and Western intelligence agencies more generally.
In the same context...
Arab intelligence agencies and Arab security are required in the coming period to understand and interpret this breach and study the idea of planting eavesdropping devices over a large geographic area or in places where leaders and influencers are present...
Israel has become more aggressive and will continue to become even more so, with endless support from the United States. It will raise its demands on Arab regimes and countries, especially after the official rejection of normalization with Saudi Arabia and the crisis of the Philadelphi Corridor with Egypt.
Currently, Israel is experiencing a media victory, with a state of political and societal euphoria similar to what it experienced in 1967, with some differences. In 1967, Israel gained Arab land, but in 2024 it is practicing state terrorism by assassinating leaders of its opponents.
This euphoria and self-pride, along with the ongoing security threat posed by resistance rockets, means we are dealing with a war criminal project with no limits—no barriers preventing it from achieving its dreams and ambitions that were previously silenced during moments of weakness.
Betting on the United States is a losing gamble, not only because the U.S. is currently losing in the global power struggle, but also because Lebanon is paying the price for this gamble now. The CIA has infiltrated key aspects of the Lebanese state, planting eavesdropping devices and booby-trapping areas like the southern suburbs. What would prevent the agency from doing the same in other Arab countries?
