BlueOak

Its blindly obvious what will happen. Its not predicting the future it's me telling you this is what Russia is doing and has been doing 8 times in a row, and then everyone telling me why it's doing it and then me saying yes, none of that has changed, so they'll just do it again. True Putin's KGB fossils are not immortal, but there are a dozen of them or so left, I hear. After that, we'll get fewer people caring about a dead empire called the USSR. Non-stop war until Russia cannot effectively fight it controls what happens. It blunts Russia, their stockpiles are almost gone, BRICS has delayed this happening but they cannot prevent it entirely. See Syria, which Russia has had to pull out of. An element of certainty is exactly what every country bordering Putin's Empire wants. Without that certainty, countries suffer economically, politically and socially. Keeping the war and Russian control as far away from them as possible benefits every single eastern European country. The region has repeatedly fought wars with Russia and repeatedly had Russia or its previous incarnations meddle in their internal politics. Now to Ukraine. Keeping Russia in the east is on the Ukranian's side also. If Russia gets to rearm, regroup and go again, it'll be twice as bad. They'll have fresh troops, new funds, new equipment, and supply lines, that's a terrible idea. Wars can be very long bloody affairs some last decades. If Putin really wants to fight forever until he has no economy or country left, that's up to him. Ukraine will be heavily invested in by the EU but nobody is going to help out the remote communities dotted over the giant landscape of Russia that Putin has drained of men and their futures.

Me accepting the dictator in me, or the authoritarian, took a hell of a lot of work, and when we cannot do that internally, we create an external condition for it to be reconciled. In this case, authoritarianism vs democracy. The only way peace exists is for both sides to take on enough of the other for parity to be found, otherwise, all we get is: THEY ARE BAD. WE ARE GOOD. And the rejection of that part of ourselves. Which is conflict, which eventually bubbles up into a larger war. The victim mindset is well documented and yes fear and unsafety can cause it, I sat it in for about a decade of my own life.

West = World. East = World. etc. This is humanity. Until that's accepted as inside your own chest too, be ready for a lot more war.

See what I mean, peace is an impossibility when one's own position and actions cannot be objectively looked at for fault. its like people think they just wander through life and have no bearing on it whatsoever, that attitude in Russia leads to alcoholism and the victim mindset most people sit in. There is no masculinity at all in that, and all day I hear about this void of it in society; well there it is on show.

Which will last until Russia invades again. For their 9th war into former USSR territories. They and the posters here will say: It's the wests fault, and list a few reasons they feel this way to justify the next war. I will say I must be a mind reader to have predicted this 5 years ago huh. Like I don't have 8 previous examples to look at, Russia repeatedly telling me it, and every previous condition for this war not only being still there but exaggerated on both sides.

You can grow more easily in harder times. The contrast between you and reality is greater. By you I mean all definitions of that, from the thoughts you have, to your body/mind, your environment, community and country etc.

We could do a mega thread but that will be a long thread

@Hatfort You can't trade the ruble anymore till 2025 due to hyperinflation; all trading has been ceased. Interests rates are above 20%. You will see no changes because nothing can change. This was an emergency measure to stop it crashing. Honestly I think you have blinders on if you think this is a healthy economy, there are not many on planet Earth right now least of all this one with the work force being killed off and a large percentage of GDP going into dead production like missiles. Beyond that Hatfort I'm fed up with the personal insults, so on this topic I am done communicating with you. I don't know how much you understand about economics. A 30% drop can quite easily kill an economy or send it to ruin. It does, however, make the fuel more attractive, but seeings as Russia imports most everything beyond the basics, the quality of life past the basics will become increasingly hard to afford. I am no expert but the squeeze here seems to be on Gazprom, as that was what was keeping this import/export balance with a weak currency in the black. With it Russia could always seem to tip the scales, now it's more sanctioned the balance has gone the other way.

@Scholar I could say they are god and their want to do something about suffering is a perfectly natural part of their existence/consciousness which has developed to this point. Easing suffering is something all humans do for themselves and many for each other; it's one of the primary things that drives human development. In this scenario acceptance of the result of that action is where acceptance comes in, not only a passive acceptance of the status quo. Ex: You decided to reply, that was an action for a result. Instead, you could have passively accepted the reply above; both would be acceptance if you accept the result. @All Consciousness develops in different forms. This needs more study, the process of it, rather than accepting it at face value. The connections between forms of consciousness always needs contemplation and is the primary way we understand anything, but the collective development aspect has relatively little time devoted to it. I am a vegan. I understand suffering is suffering. I still kill pests in my house, and some of them suffer. What is a pest? I defined that, or at least accepted others' definition of this. Why is it a pest? because I decided it or accepted it. This to me isn't enough, it's a poor answer, and doesn't take into account the effect pests have on others around me for example, or those I interact with. I show this to hopefully get people to think collectively.

I would say this is a neutral tone from a fiance site with a minor update. https://fortune.com/2024/11/30/ruble-collapse-currency-crisis-penny-us-dollar-wealth-fund-vladimir-putin/ I am not a person that thinks the country collapses, its got too many partners propping it up, but I do repeatedly say the decline in Russia is going to be sped up because too many people want that to happen. Another Update:

Info dump on this yesterday. Turkish F4 Phantom intercepts Iranian F14. There is a ground clip of it. Very unpredictable which force will win out. My prediction is that Syria will not have one government but two or more areas of control. One for Turkey, One for Israel and One for Iran. Unless one government can somehow walk this tightrope between the regional powers.

Your experience of life is the connections you have and how you relate to the world around you. Some of that is dictated to us, most of it we choose. What do you want to experience in this life?

Well put, I think the victim mindset would probably offend Putin.

Yeah with the way things have turned out, its in Israel's and the US's interest now to boot the regime out and create a buffer state for Israel between Iran and Lebanon etc. Before it was merely useful to get involved, now its a higher priority and with Russia pulling forces out from everywhere, stretching what's its got thin, I think the regime is done. What we might see is Iran, North Korea or indirectly China fighting there. This is where the US and Iran might fight, or their special forces at least

Elements of Socialism. It is the glue to regulate aspects of humanity that otherwise harm the collective, as well as provide for those who are stepped on by others.

Russia has had 8 wars to establish control over former USSR territories; if that isn't expansion, tell me what is? I go by people's actions more than their words, of which there have also been plenty of threats from Spain to Alaska. Russia projects military power across the globe. That's what most wars we all hate America getting into are all about—fighting Russia-influenced or backed regimes. Why is there a need for me to tell you America is psychopathic when seen in an expanded context? Is this for a wider audience, or are you trying to genuinely convince me of this? Because you can stop there. China, America, Russia, the UK and France every world power acts as if the only way to exist in the world is to club the other guy. As i've said many times Russia has done plenty of meddling in nations, they just do it with guns, training, special forces, assassinations, intelligence data, and money, rather than big pompous nation-building exercises that people watch on TV and get annoyed about (mostly, unless Russia is hitting an underdeveloped African nation in turmoil or they just want to eradicate population centers aka gassing Syrian rebels, Bombing Chechen fighters or Drone striking Ukrainian cities). The real question is why do countries act like they do, a better question than that is how to change it The answer to your question i've said 5 times now at least. People need to villainize the other side to fight them. Which is what most of the energy of these threads are focused on. Their bad we are good. I could just write that in place of most of these posts, then my various attempts to get people to realise the futility of that. That's 90% of your post. These guys were bad, so that justified what we do next. This is a terrible place of reasoning to be in. There are a multitude of reasons for this war, but one you point out is to shrink their border with NATO so they can more easily guard it, while having a shrinking population. Actually, many empires try one last push before they sputter out, Mongols, the British, the Americans, Rome, Greeks, and the Russians—it happened all through history. In the wider context, this war is the acceleration of Russia's shrinking. It obviously has the appetite for such a burden because it's doing it right now. If you are going to say Russia's actions are defensive, then i'll say Eastern Europe's actions are defensive and ergo their allies. Invading another country is not defensive, I don't care how you spin it.

@zazen So instead you've picked a date that suits your moral compass better? Therefore you can moralize the current invasion is justified. See Afghanistan, Iraq - September the 11th etc etc. You are doing exactly what you claim I and others do, when I repeatedly in my replies say this is pointless. If we were to take your logic back to its source it would end up pointing you at human behavior when organized into the collective called country, especially among certain expansionist cultures/communities.

Russia is not the USSR. Just like Ukraine is not the USSR, despite how badly old men want to recreate that scenario. The world is different to what is was in that era. Hence the nukes did not belong to Russia, and why they had to be negotiated for. Democracy in a Russian proxy government? Come on Bobby.

Oh and BTW all Russian Ruble Trading has ceased till 2025 as it entered a period of hyperinflation, so they can only barter now. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/russian-rouble-down-by-one-quarter-since-early-august-2024-11-27/ https://www.youtube.com/live/sY-PX9pVK_Y?si=xj8CeZf9RpRchtL1&t=1171 Everything is fine? All great over there I am sure.

The ruble has been continually collapsing for years now. https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/interest-rate It is propped up by soaring interest rates. Check your own facts before insulting my credibility next time. The fact you think someone can double its military budget and not take an economic hit is mind-boggling, where do they get this money out of thin air? Its set for 6.3% in 2025. What they did do is effectively delay the inevitable with their cash reserves and former Soviet military stockpiles. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-braces-more-tax-rises-fund-ukraine-war-2024-10-31/ The Russian economy is not doing fine at all. 20+% interest rates is not 'fine' in a country which already has relatively low wages and a declining population. Next you'll be telling me Europe is somehow in its golden years by that standard and the hardships everyone around the globe faces don't exist. Even without the war spending and Putin burning their reserves, most economies are barely in recovery or still in an economic winter. Again the location of the nukes is what led to the treaty. They were in Ukraine hence Ukraine was guaranteed by Russia, the UK and the USA. When the USSR dissolved, they were no longer in the USSR because it didn't exist. The fact you paint Russia as a victim when its on its 9th war into former USSR territory and continually pushes its sphere of influence outward, like everyone does, meddling in everyone around it labels you as the biggest propagandist in this thread. Here'll i'll mirror this. Poor old NATO a defensive treaty, just couldn't help but accept the weak and defenseless countries Russia was threatening, and Putin just kept pushing his luck. He kept trying to interfere in their country's political processes; he kept invading his neighbors over and over again. NATO is a victim, because it just had to secure its borders further outward in this zero-sum game you describe. So therefor I can label Russia the bad guy forever. Russia is the second biggest arms dealer on the planet, it propped up some of the worst men on planet earth in positions of power (from my moral valueset), and now it seeks to undermine the world order with rampant imperialism. Now it has threatened food, energy and nuclear war repeatedly, and its leader is a fascist tyrant. We can do this cyclic moralising all day to no avail whatsoever. Its just justification for our own feelings. Russia invaded; like all invasions into Europe it will be fought back against and that is what is happening. NATO expanded, BRICS rose up and Expanded. You might not like the reality but that's it. Until You and I, and everyone in this thread stop looking for victims to make ourselves feel better, it'll continue. North Koreans are involved right now. However, you want to propagandise (to use your reasoning) their presence. Any country has the justification to do the same. It was an idiotic strategic blunder. The fact is Ukraine is holding Russia in the east, and its taken some Russian land. This will always be a fight, even if it was an occupation. People don't take over land without force and violence, it's not a Disney movie. Russia better be prepared to face the consequences also, it isn't, nobody is. It isn't a massively smaller country in terms of population; its merely a smaller one with more motivation to fight than Russians have to invade. Better training and equipment make up the difference in the population sizes. You might want that reality above to be different but it isn't, that's why the war Russians keep telling me will be over in 3 days, in 3 months, in 3 years, isn't over. I told everyone it'd be a decade of violence, and I stand by it, 10-20 years of unrest on the occupied territories. The death ratios compared to the population sizes are comparable.

I'm not doing much to better mankind or the collective when I am facing poverty or survival challenges, as much of the world is. There is a certain coming together I see around me, but it's only from those perspectives; nothing grander.

Ukraine had nukes, Ditto Belarus now having them. That was the purpose of the treaty to get them back. You can word it any way you like Bobby. The nukes were in Ukraine and the USA, Russia and the UK guaranteed Ukraine to get them out. A Russia proxy government in Ukraine is not a non-aligned state. Nor is Putin pushing his influence further and futher outward to establish a Russian Empire. The Russian ruble continues to collapse. They've wrecked their established trading relationships. They've killed off population they don't have to spare. China owns more and more of their industries. Many of their best have left the country for somewhere safe, and their actions to destroy the arts and liberal part of their population will lead to stagnation long term, as it always does, in their development. They've hastened their descent out of being a major power or even significant regional power. The only way forward is Ukraine in NATO, or Ukraine with Nukes, or Ukraine in an Eastern Europe or EU Military Alliance. Ukranian surrender is a fantasy. Everyone loves to prop up a boogeyman to justify attacks and invasions. You do it in every post you make. Endless support. Not really no. The western economies have barely altered production, whereas Russia is almost in a total war scenario (they are not yet but a large % of their GDP is in support of the war). That's a bit like saying China or Iran is giving endless support, they are not. This is again your and Russian hyperbole. Actually, if North Korea stupidly keep sending foreign fighters, lots of countries can solve the manpower issue. The door is open now. Ukraine have done very well against Russia. But as you repeatedly fail to understand, and I have repeatedly told you, its about holding Russia in the east, nothing more.

@zazen The first six minutes is a morality argument: How many people do Russia have to kill before they get a video of a man in a chair saying how bad their foreign policy is? How many arms do they have to sell, they are 2nd to America currently; do they need to be at the top? How many dictators do they need to finance, arm, train, and deploy in support of? Because they'd need a second chair right now. Is this really still they are bad, we are good reasoning? Is there a scorecard being kept for people's grudges? Because these people one side of the world have done harm, then we can just condone whatever anyone does around the globe because it makes us feel better in our own convictions. I am supposed to now tell you how bad Putin is, list several reasons, and use that to condone someone dropping bombs on Moscow or Beijing. What is the point of any of this? Do I need again to tell you how psychopathic the pursuit of profit is when set against even a single human life and American oil or the black blood of the earth? Or the pursuit of land and empire for that matter when Russia does it? None of this is okay. I wish people would stop lying to themselves it was. I could then look them in the eye and have a wider discussion. Instead, I need to argue morality with you, which will bring nobody closer to a solution, but it can remove the fog surrounding finding one. Or we can go on pretending one group of apes armed with machine guns acts better than the other I suppose. Trying to pretend most of the globe isn't clawing for everything it can get its hands on.

Ukraine has been trained for years now. They've been fighting a war for years. Their army is one of the best in Europe. Its not addressed in western media because it is a figment of Russian imagination, used as a way to encourage their people to throw themselves into a slaughter so an old man can feel like an emperor. Ukraine was guaranteed to be protected by the US and the UK in return for giving up its nukes. You really like to twist things its amazing. Putin invades, Putin continues to threaten and push everyone, terrorises countries in multiple wars, kills civilians on mass, and threatens energy, fuel, leadership, the people of our countries, then supposedly if they attack our countries, we are to blame in Europe. Incredible logic, how people will jump through hoops to avoid responsibility for their own positions. Sorry it's not happening. If he really wants a war with us he'll get one. We are not backing down from a fascist tyrant on either side of the atlantic. Hint, he doesn't. He has no hope in a conventional war, he has two options to keep throwing his people away or not. Yeah i'm sure. I'm sure old Boris went in there and was supposedly told Ukraine, the US, France and the entirety of NATO and all the negotiators how things were going to go. Doesn't that run counter to your narrative that everything west of Ukraine = the USA? Or is that an inconvenient detail in the narrative? China sends materials to the war effort. Iran sends missiles and munitions. North Korea are now sending personnel. BRICS as a whole do their best to keep the Russian war economy going. Nobody in NATO is trying to keep the Russian war economy going by choice. By necessity at times, but anything economic they do, BRICS counters. So there is only war, they've largely given up on the economic angle. That's what two powerblocks leads to, they can't settle things by economic means as we have done in the past, so when leaders decide to fight they fight just with force and a larger amount of casualties is required to decide the outcome. You trying to paint every country west of Ukraine as the US is comical to me also. When most of have them have neither the temperament or capability to fight offensive wars on the other side of the world against regional powers. Your hatred for the US weakens every post you make as a result. If you could for once remove the bias to say NATO is more than the US and Ukraine itself is fighting for Ukraine, you'd have stronger more balanced perspectives all around. I can see that in Russia, I can see in Eastern Europe, I can see it in US interests, Chinese Interests, BRICS interest and in Ukraine itself. For some reason, though you have divided the world up into Good and Bad, and you've decided you are on the good side so it's all okay, and one sort of violence is somehow more correct than the other. Rather than being able to see through the perspectives of others, you shut them down. Russia believes it needs to fight this war, so it is doing. Right now I believe we need to fight back to stop them.