BlueOak

Something being ignored in Western News. Pakistan is striking Afghanistan, there were skirmishes last year and early this year, but there was a break until now. Current Info: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Pakistani_airstrikes_in_Kabul Previous Info: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghanistan–Pakistan_clashes_(2024–present) Light summary of it: I could not find an in-depth video of it, because its largely not being covered. I also want to say this is how China potentially becomes the world police. Then 50 years from now people will vilify them.

Yes, its just a necessity for their ideology to become the new monopoly. I refuse to engage you here on the flaws of replacing imperialist ambition with genocidal, fanatic, and brutally aggressive regimes the world over. I'm taking a day off.

Its probably one of the last barriers to overcome in terms of requiring money to make money. Advertising. I am not saying its as bad as it was, or there are not avenues, but there are not many. So I challenge my assumption (I've hit this problem many times.) GPT 5.0 🧭 1. Claim & Optimize Your Free Google Business Profile Add your location, photos, hours, and services. It’s one of the top local ranking signals. 👉 https://www.google.com/business/ 📘 2. Create a Facebook Page & Post Regularly Use groups related to your niche (local or interest-based). Share helpful posts, not just promos. 👉 https://www.facebook.com/pages/create/ 📍 3. Add Your Business to Apple Maps & Bing Places Apple Maps drives iPhone users, Bing feeds search results for Alexa and Windows devices. 👉 https://register.apple.com/places-on-maps 👉 https://www.bingplaces.com/ 🗺️ 4. Get Listed on Local Directories Yelp, Nextdoor, and Foursquare are still solid for SEO and discovery. 👉 https://www.yelp.com/ 👉 https://nextdoor.com/business/ 👉 https://foursquare.com/ ✍️ 5. Start a Free Blog Use WordPress or Medium to post tips, how-tos, or stories related to your niche. 👉 https://wordpress.com/ 👉 https://medium.com/ 📰 6. Pitch a Local News Story Local papers love stories about new businesses, community service, or interesting founders. Find “Contact Us” on their site or tag them on social media. 📸 7. Use Instagram Reels & TikTok Quick behind-the-scenes clips or customer stories can go far with consistent posting. 👉 https://www.instagram.com/ 👉 https://www.tiktok.com/ 🧑‍💼 8. Post on LinkedIn (even for local services) Share short insights or tips weekly — helps build authority and referrals. 👉 https://www.linkedin.com/ 🗣️ 9. Join & Contribute to Online Forums Answer questions genuinely on Reddit, Quora, or niche forums — people notice expertise. 👉 https://www.reddit.com/ 👉 https://www.quora.com/ 💌 10. Build a Free Email List Start with friends/customers and use Mailchimp’s free tier for newsletters. 👉 https://mailchimp.com/ 🎯 11. Offer a Referral Reward Create a “refer a friend” deal or discount — spread it via word of mouth. 🎙️ 12. Guest on Podcasts or Local Radio Reach new audiences by offering short, practical insights in your niche. 🧾 13. Write a Helpful Guide or Checklist Give away a PDF guide in exchange for email sign-ups — positions you as an expert. 🤝 14. Partner with Other Local Businesses Cross-promote each other’s products (shared flyers, bundled deals, or shoutouts). 📱 15. Engage in Local Facebook or Reddit Groups Be helpful — don’t spam. Recommend your services only when relevant. 📍 16. Use Free Classifieds Craigslist, Facebook Marketplace, and OfferUp can all bring leads. 👉 https://www.craigslist.org/ 👉 https://www.facebook.com/marketplace/ 👉 https://offerup.com/ 🎨 17. Design Simple Graphics for Free Canva makes social posts and flyers quick and professional. 👉 https://www.canva.com/ 📽️ 18. Start a YouTube Channel Short tutorials, behind-the-scenes videos, or “how we help customers” pieces build trust. 👉 https://www.youtube.com/ 📅 19. Attend Free Community Events Bring flyers or business cards. Offer samples or demos when possible. 🗞️ 20. Use Press Release Distribution (Free Tier) Sites like PRLog let you post free press releases online. 👉 https://www.prlog.org/ 🔁 Bonus Tips Be consistent — post or engage daily, even for 10 minutes. Track what brings actual visitors or calls (Google Insights, link clicks). Focus on helpful visibility, not just shouting “buy now.”

I crystalised in my mind what needs to happen. The man will go, the effects are what need focus. Problem: Reduction in law and order, government competence, or perception of it. Goal: Assume absolute authority in a smaller number of hands, when law and governance is seen as corrupt or incompetant. Solution: Reaffirm legal processes. High government competence. Goal: Balance the perception of corruption and incompetence with examples of the opposite. So I asked GPT 5.0 for an actionable plan that would reverse this, and when anyone asks what can be done, well here is a template: 1) Stabilize the rule of law (first 100–180 days) A. Fortify independent oversight Fill all Inspector General (IG) vacancies; publish a public “IG independence scorecard” (time to fill, budget parity, access to records). Use GAO’s independence principles as the benchmark. Government Accountability Office+1 Commit (in writing) to non-retaliation against IGs and auditors; require public notice and written cause before any removal, plus a 30-day congressional review window. (Track: # of removals/attempts; timeliness of agency responses to IG requests.) Government Accountability Office B. De-politicize prosecution and enforcement Issue/renew a formal DOJ independence memo (charging and declination decisions insulated from political staff). Mandate transparent, uniform charging guidelines; release quarterly anonymized enforcement dashboards (equal-treatment indicators across geography, income brackets). (Track: variance in charging outcomes, time to disposition.) C. Fast, fair dispute resolution Expand court-annexed online dispute resolution for routine civil matters (evictions, small claims) to cut wait times and perceived bias. (Track: median time-to-resolution; pro se success rates.) 2) Prove competence through visible service wins (first 6–12 months) A. Deliver “trust-building” service fixes Pick 6–10 high-friction services (passports, SSA benefits, veterans’ claims, disaster aid, small-business grants). Commit to a 90-day sprint per service with public targets: fewer steps, faster cycle times, clearer status tracking. Publish before/after metrics on a single Performance & CX site (queue times, application errors, abandonment, satisfaction). This aligns with the federal CX framework under EO 14058; it’s designed explicitly to rebuild trust via better service delivery. performance.gov+2Federal Register+2 B. Use proven digital delivery teams Put a protected, senior-backed digital/service corps in charge (or partner with a state-level equivalent). Their track record shows large, measurable gains (e.g., SSA.gov satisfaction +53%; VA service uptake; massive logistics like home COVID test distribution). (Track: task-level SLAs; site usability; satisfaction). United States DOGE Service+1 C. Adopt a “What Works” standard locally For states/cities: certify agencies against What Works Cities criteria (open data, performance analytics, low-cost evaluations). Tie discretionary funds to meeting the standard; publish compliance. datasmart.hks.harvard.edu+3bloomberg.org+3whatworkscities.bloomberg.org+3 3) Make elections boringly reliable A. Process integrity, not performative fights Standardize basic election admin KPIs: ballot rejection rates, average wait times, chain-of-custody logs, post-election audit coverage. Publish in near-real time on a neutral portal. Expand risk-limiting audits and publish readable reports within 30 days of certification. (Track: audit coverage %, error bounds.) Communicate the process as much as the outcome; part of the confidence rebound in 2024 came from fewer interference concerns flagged by independent monitors. Freedom House 4) Rebuild trust with transparency people can see A. Radical progress dashboards For each priority problem, post weekly metrics and an “evidence file” (data, methods, and contracts). Require every major policy to ship with a public logic model (inputs → activities → outputs → outcomes → measures). This echoes best practices documented by digital-government networks and OMB’s CX guidance. Digital.gov+1 B. Contracting sunlight Publish readable versions of major contracts (scope, milestones, performance clauses) and on-time/ on-budget charts. Mandate “after-action” notes for failed procurements and share reusable artifacts (SOWs, acceptance tests) in an open repository (see TechFAR case studies). techfarhub.usds.gov 5) Strengthen civic integrity (information & institutions) A. Evidence-based public communication Align comms cadence to the metrics: monthly trust dashboards, quarterly IG/ethics updates, and rapid myth-busting pages that link to primary data (charging statistics, audit logs). Partner with local journalists and nonpartisan civic orgs to co-host “open records explainers” and data walkthroughs. B. Civic education with measurable reach Fund short, platform-native modules (how audits work, what IGs do, how to verify claims). Evaluate with randomized A/B tests (lift in factual recall, reduction in misbelief). Track trust explicitly. Only ~22% trusted the federal government “most of the time” in 2024—set a 3-year target to lift that by 8–10 points and report progress. Pew Research Center+2Pew Research Center+2 6) Guardrails that outlast leaders (structural moves) Hard-wire IG independence (cause-only removal, budget floors, subpoena clarity, litigation fast-track for access disputes). Government Accountability Office Ethics & conflicts: universal public beneficial-ownership disclosures for senior officials and contractors; automatic recusal triggers; machine-readable disclosure data. Data rights: default open administrative data (privacy-preserving) for outcomes evaluation across agencies—key to “prove don’t claim” governance. Customer-experience law: codify core elements of EO 14058 so service quality cannot swing with administrations. Federal Register 7) Measurement & cadence (so it doesn’t drift) Weekly: program dashboards; issue logs; staffing heatmap for critical services. Monthly: trust indicators (YouGov/Gallup/Pew-style questions), IG/ethics updates, election-integrity KPIs during cycles. (Publish both good and bad news—transparency is the product.) AP News Quarterly: independent audits of one flagship service and one enforcement area; public “learning review” with fixes scheduled. Annually: target improvements relative to external scorecards (V-Dem, Freedom House). Use them as outside validators, even when the news stings. Freedom House+3v-dem.net+3v-dem.net+3 Quick start (first 30 days) Name a cross-partisan Rule-of-Law & Service Delivery Board (IGs, GAO alumni, civil-rights, state/local admins, service-design leads). Publish 10 “trust commitments” (e.g., time-to-benefit cut 30%, audit results in 30 days, cause-only IG removal, public charging guidelines). Pick 3 services and 2 enforcement areas for sprint-level improvements with public goals and a countdown clock. Launch facts.gov (or state equivalent): one URL for all metrics, audits, and election process stats. Why this works It addresses the substance (equal application of law, independent oversight) and the perception (clear, externally verifiable performance data). It is built on institutions and standards that research ties to trust gains and democratic resilience, and it aligns with independent benchmarks that will hold you honest. Freedom House+4United States DOGE Service+4performance.gov+4 Sourcing Rather than reformat everything: United States Digital Service (USDS) – 2024 Impact Report https://usds.gov/impact-report/2024/ United States DOGE Service+2United States DOGE Service+2 PDF version: https://www.usds.gov/resources/USDS-2024-Impact-Report.pdf United States DOGE Service What Works Cities Certification (Bloomberg Philanthropies & Results for America) https://whatworkscities.bloomberg.org/assessment/ whatworkscities.bloomberg.org+2Results for America+2 Overview: https://whatworkscities.bloomberg.org/ whatworkscities.bloomberg.org Pew Research Center — Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024/ Pew Research Center+1 Pew Charitable Trusts — 5 Ways to Rebuild Trust in Government https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/trend/archive/fall-2024/5-ways-to-rebuild-trust-in-government pewtrusts.org The State of Public Trust in Government 2024 (Partnership for Public Service) https://ourpublicservice.org/publications/state-of-trust-in-government-2024/ ourpublicservice.org Data Behind Americans’ Waning Trust in Institutions (Pew) https://www.pew.org/en/trend/archive/fall-2024/data-behind-americans-waning-trust-in-stitutions pew.org ---- Further Reference, some links might double up. 🏛️ Rule of Law & Oversight Inspector General Act & Independence Overview (GAO) https://www.gao.gov/igact Council of the Inspectors General on Integrity and Efficiency (CIGIE) — Oversight Reports https://www.ignet.gov/ Project On Government Oversight (POGO) — Strengthening Inspector General Independence https://www.pogo.org/report/2024/strengthening-inspector-general-independence/ Government Accountability Office (GAO) — Standards for Internal Control in the Federal Government https://www.gao.gov/greenbook ⚙️ Competent & Accountable Government United States Digital Service – 2024 Impact Report https://usds.gov/impact-report/2024/ Performance.gov – Cross-Agency Priority Goals & Metrics https://www.performance.gov/ Executive Order 14058: Transforming Federal Customer Experience https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2021/12/15/2021-27364/transforming-federal-customer-experience-and-service-delivery-to-rebuild-trust-in-government Partnership for Public Service – State of Trust in Government 2024 https://ourpublicservice.org/publications/state-of-trust-in-government-2024/ What Works Cities – Certification & Assessment Framework https://whatworkscities.bloomberg.org/assessment/ ClearPoint Strategy – What Works Cities & Data-Driven Governance https://www.clearpointstrategy.com/blog/what-works-cities-and-local-government 🗳️ Elections & Institutional Integrity Bipartisan Policy Center – Election Administration Benchmarks https://bipartisanpolicy.org/report/election-administration-benchmarks-2024/ MIT Election Data + Science Lab (MEDSL) — Election Performance Index https://electionlab.mit.edu/ National Association of Secretaries of State – Election Security Resources https://www.nass.org/resources/election-security Brennan Center for Justice – Risk-Limiting Audits Explained https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/risk-limiting-audits-explained 🔍 Transparency, Ethics, and Open Data Office of Government Ethics (OGE) — Public Financial Disclosure Program https://www.oge.gov/Web/oge.nsf/Financial Disclosure Data.gov — Open Federal Data Portal https://www.data.gov/ Sunlight Foundation (archived) — OpenGov Policy Library https://opengovpolicyhub.sunlightfoundation.com/ Freedom of Information Act (FOIA.gov) — Request Transparency Dashboard https://www.foia.gov/ Federal Audit Clearinghouse — Public Access to Audit Results https://facweb.census.gov/ 📊 Public Trust & Civic Engagement Pew Research Center – Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/06/24/public-trust-in-government-1958-2024/ Pew Charitable Trusts – 5 Ways to Rebuild Trust in Government https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/trend/archive/fall-2024/5-ways-to-rebuild-trust-in-government Pew Charitable Trusts – Data Behind Americans’ Waning Trust in Institutions https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/trend/archive/fall-2024/data-behind-americans-waning-trust-in-institutions Freedom House – Freedom in the World 2025 Report https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2025/

Absolutely he does indeed plan to end American democracy and establish a new authoritarian regime in America. He is doing right now. This moment now is where the state of the free world will be decided. Its either BRICS way of doing things, or the democratic way of doing things. We are already at war, democracy is eroding before our eyes. Steve Bannon should be arrested for conspiracy to commit treason. Was one comment at the top of the list, in an actual democracy, yes. A quote commented on in the video was. There will not be any real elections if this becomes the future.

Think of it more as a concentrated effort by Russia/China/BRICS to end democracy worldwide. Isolation of America is a clear goal of that. That's the undeclared war we are in.

1, Nobody said to assess Russia like its the USSR, except maybe Putin in his delusion as he was/is trying to remake it. Critically without the understanding of it once being the USSR, you cannot understand the current hegemony. The premise instead is that BRICS are addressing an American Hegemony that just happens to be there, when instead no, its a predictable pattern that empires follow. 2, Because your containment argument is largely illusionary these days. You sidepstepped the argument I made when I said BRICS as a totality dwarves anything else. They are not contained. I was going to concede the south china sea contains china but it's just de facto taken it over so *shrug*. From my perspective the world was a safer place when Russia and China were contained, now its closer to WW3 than its ever been. The US hegemony is in a pure reactionary state and somewhat scared as a result. The BRICS hegemony is already greater than it. China alone isn't yet but it won't be much longer till we possibly have a new unipolar world aligned with China, that's a possible scenario. So the arguments you put forward that they are following a path of necessity in their wars or genocides is false. Its them taking advantage of their new place in the world order. As Israel is. The dollar being the world currency is about all America has left, and we've seen how effective that was against Russia—barely at all. 3, People frame BRICS warcrimes as understandable. Even while ongoing. I am not saying you are condoning it but you are putting it in the framing of necessity. 4, I've already responded to your bolded points. You (everyone) picks the time point that best suits their argument or worldview. I tend to point to the pattern itself where possible. Because it explains what comes next, like 90%-95% of the time. You've acknowledged that before but won't use that understanding. 5, Let me bold the answer clearly: Every country's violence is policy It doesn't make it any better. The hypocrisy, as always, Zazen is Israel doesn't get to genocide, but china does. Because China's genocide is slightly more tasteful to look at. 'But i'm not condoning it you'll answer with' Yeah, but it still happened (and is happening quietly). China is still championed as this new refreshing change on the American leadership, while Israel is the hated villian Oh and both these ethnic cleansing events were policy, not that it makes a bit of difference. Then we can talk about every ruined bit of territory that exists in Ukraine, because Ukraine resisted, like the Palestinians did. I know different context, same result for the homes or anyone in them.

All war damages the interests of humanity. The US itself uses international law to justify many of their actions against Russia. Sure. International law used as a hammer. Made for some great 80s and 90s liberator moments, box office hits. Shame about all those bombed out cities and broken homes. I hear it's not liked so much these days. But its okay because its making a comeback. As long as its on the right side of course; that's always important. Because this time it's different; this time the reasons are better and more just, they make for a better world. So war is okay. We can kill or displace a lot of people, and its terrible of course, but okay. - I know you've said this is stupid, I know, but it frames the whole sentiment everyone puts forward. I’m not getting what your point is. By your logic the whole anti South African apartheid movement should have just quit and left Mandela to rot in prison because other countries also had repression and warcrimes. That’s ridiculous. Thank you that made me chuckle a bit. Then I realised that yes, that would indeed happen right now. In some ways I hate trying to kill your idealism because the world can probably use more of it right now. It just comes at the cost of picking a side, directly or indirectly. The side being - This morality is what I like best and these people embody it the most so I like them the most - These days the hammer is. America bad. As long as we align what we do to 'America bad', we can do anything.

Law only exists if it's applied. If I were to violate the forum rules i'd be banned. If I wasn't and continued to get away with it, there would be rules in name but not in practice. Europe and the US wouldn't be selling Russia weapons, because Russia is attacking Europe and trying to destabilise both Europe and the US internally. There are only sanctions because it suits these countries' and regions foreign policy; when it doesn't, they will evaporate. I've never denied Russia has every reason, from their own perspective, for their war. It doesn't mean anyone here is going to say, "Oh well, Blue Oak, you know what? Your perspective is balanced and unbiased on this issue. Israel has every reason from their perspective for the war, as does Hamas, Ukraine and Russia. The methods by which Israel, Russia, China, and America are doing it is understandable given the state of international law and the context of the world currently.

Regarding Russia: The only place in the world international law exists is in most of Europe. That's why Poland threatened to lock Putin up, but he could meet in Alaska just fine. I resist saying that because I don't believe international law applies to Europe when it doesn't suit them. It certainly exists nowhere else in the world. Ergo there is no international law. The sanctions are to stop the war, when it's done, so are the sanctions. There will be zero accountability for anyone involved in either of these wars. Quote me any post you've ever made about ukranian civilian deaths. I am very happy to apologise and be proven wrong. For me the amount of energy you expend on one side of the argument is obvious, I am sorry it isn't to you. Its a bit like if you tell me I support Ukraine more than Russia and I started arguing I didn't, it'd be transparent and obvious. All I try to do is bring everything to parity.

In my posts none of it unless I specifically say as such.

There is no international law. Israel is acting as such. That doesn't mean I like it or won't offer argument or small aid where I can see atrocities being committed. Or when I see aggressors destabilizing the world further, or moreover starting wars wherever they like. Bluntly Raze The day I see you complaining about the treatment of people with pictures in a war you tolerate is the day your argument is going to be elevated and have universal merit. Right now it's cherry-picked highlighted suffering to suit your view of the world. People are responsible for their own actions. Your rhetoric that these poor regimes, who people repeatedly tell me make up 90% of the world with an economic and military force that can crush anyone, are suppressed is wearing transparently thin. You set your framing in the past while understanding and legitimizing bloody conflicts and genocides in the present because it suits the side you've picked. Much like China and Russia do. Personally,I think violent expanionist regimes need to be curtailed and hindered, yes. That's more obvious than ever now. We will never have international law or peace until you can acknowledge, without justification, that a war crime is a war crime, and a war is a war. And when you can drop the pretense that BRICS combined is not some poor hindered power but is infact as powerful as NATO if not more so, and as such every action they take is entirely by their agency and responsibility. So if a bloody, violent, or expansionist choice is made, it needs to be treated as such. OR Israel is just fighting against a region that is much bigger than it, international law doesn't matter, and what the heck are you judging them for? Sounds more like China and Russia every word you say. Yeah i'm sure the bombs and decades of violence match up real well with pronouns. Honestly, I could head-desk repeatedly. Here let me do it: Palestinians aren't really suffering that bad, are they, I mean sure a few people have died, but you know its not too bad. A bit like republicans getting treated bad when they go to Mexico with their red hats; if they just stayed in their homes, none of this would have happened. Its surrounded by people armed by the opposite alliance. The Brics alliance that likes to also play god with other nations, but sssh we shouldn't mention that one, because then we'd have a real understanding of geo politics being expressed. Let me tell you a story about the world. Russia has been arming and established its own order and cage globally for far longer than i've been alive. Cages for populations under dictators or any groups that might challenge their favored political allies and dynamic. So America kicked it to the curb in a bloody, violent, imperialistic madness, and now they are bad guys, but guess what? When it's America getting kicked to the curb, Russia and China are the good guys! Because they bring what you consider more beneficial. Because it suits your perspective and view of the world. So what if we genocide a few cultures, or bomb out a few cities, steal land and seas wherever we like, maybe nuke a nation? It'll be unfortunate but alright because it lines up with how you view the world should be. Funny old world eh. Bad Israel. Just shoot less people at once, make some better propaganda, and you'll be in line with the rest of the world. Or just join BRICS then they'd be singing your praises. But seriously act less like genocidal maniacs, its not a good look, and that's what counts at the minute.

You may or may not have noticed international law doesn't exist in the modern day anymore. Not in China. Not in America Not in Russia So why should it exist in Israel if the powers that could enforce it flagrantly do whatever genocides or war crimes they want? Let me preempt your answer slightly: I don't care if you consider one conflict right or wrong. Or the numbers less or more. In order for laws to be legitimate, they must be universal; otherwise, they erode as they have. It's no good just saying, of course, or well I understand their motivations, so their war crimes are less important or less impactful. None of that makes a damned bit of difference to the people asked to follow international law across billions of perspectives. More generally to all, try to put yourself in an Israel perspective to understand why they are doing what they are doing. Not only is it internationally acceptable now. We've got people saying they are not threatened on all sides. That's like 90% of the reason why they are acting as they are! Do they help themselves by being as aggressive as possible, I don't think so, but in this day and age, other countries and people disagree. They consider overwhelming force, suppression and ethnic cleansing and/or genocide not the last choice but one of the first. Until people apply that to all warring parties, they'll just be shouting at a wall. *Insert how one conflict isn't as bad, or I understand their motivations more* Missing the entire point that your perspective, is just that, yours. Its not going to apply to someone else. The rule of law has to be absolutely applied across all perspectives, from the president to the homeless, from the superpowers to the struggling small country, or it has less and less meaning. - That's my moralising for the day done.

I am not so sure as the OP. Its a pretty good strategy. Disrupt the urban vote, flip the democratic areas come election time.

A catchy one to draw attention but if you want more ration takes go below To bring some wider understanding to the ongoing problems in America, and show purging is the new in thing the world over. When authoritarians, including America in this, as I am now a terrorist according to Trump, don't have an answer, they just purge. In whatever form they can. It is postulated this is a way to get ready for war, reducing the trade wing of his party, and using the corruption angle to reduce its influence, to replace it with the military side of the party. Here are some different takes, over a few months:

I have no illusions Ukraine will not and has not suffered horribly. That's one of the reason it has so much popular support. It will also get a lot of foreign investment to stabilize it. Russia is not near as powerful as it once was. Ukraine has held them for several years. I used to say: Russia do not have a strong military; they have nukes and manpower. Though right now, in my opinion, anyone low on drones has a weak military. - So perhaps Russia is in fact a stronger military than most of the world looked at through that lens.- Just not as monstrously powerful as you say compared to Ukraine, because Ukraine have even better drones than Russia does. It's more like a big guy brawling with a normal-sized guy who can fight well. Ukraine's got electricity; Russia is being more tactical (shocker) in its strikes this time and trying to cut off certain cities from the grid, which is much more effective. You know, one day they will save all their missiles terrorizing the civilian population and actually aim them at useful targets; if so they would have probably won the war a year or two ago. There is just systematic stupidity in the overall strategy Russia has employed. Otherwise, the scenario might be more like you and others suggest.

Abstractly now: Well if we stray into these territories, it's already there. One way people think of this is, we are working backwards towards the end goal of the connection, realisation and self-organization of the universe. - Or rather just our realisation of it. The convergence and connection (or self-organization) of all things in spiritual terms is love, realised through its connection to everything around it, that realisation is what people often call enlightenment. We often look at things in a linear way, but we are constantly reorganizing things to realise that goal, as it's already what we consider love when realised. The only doubt I have about this philosophy is if metal has the same end point as humanity, and what convergence or connection looks like in those terms. Though this strays into a different forum and is probably best kept there.

Ukraine is now trading AI data with the US, as AI data is the weapon of the future. This will be true of Russia - China also of course. But it highlights some of the countries that will be taking leaps ahead of everyone else. I assume some of the EU countries helping Ukraine will have similiar deals and it might explain some of BRICS persistance in trade, as its an unspoken major shift. I've often said Tanks are useless now, same with APCs, unless they get large upgrades.

Ah you speak of Moscow and St Petersburg. Indeed, the privileged area. That will break at the first sign of real struggle. St Petersburg already had a few protests recently and they are barely feeling any squeeze yet. No compared to this: The men don't exist, people are bundled off the streets into the war, cripples are common, roads can barely be traversed, there is no money already, your soldiers are not paid the bonus they said they would be, criminals are returning from the front causing havok, you feel resentment to the governing authorities, oligarchs have more contorl than the state, medicines are hard to find, and now fuel doesn't exist. Does that sound like a rebellion to you? Because it does to me. Add some freezing to come and maybe starvation to those regions and yeah. Oh did I mention the scaled-down police force are now the criminals and soldiers returning? When they are paid, which isn't guaranteed. Let's get the comparison grounded. We have a few privileged areas that have never experienced real hardship for two or more generations. They've been babied from the consequences of this war, especially in the losses experienced. You are asking me if they'll rise up if they take some pain? I think yes they will protest, not rebel. But then we have what I am also talking about, the other 80 regions, or moreover the ones far enough away with enough money to do a better job of governing themselves. Fair. I've never liked the term collapse. There is a point it'll be reached though. If I saw any indication Putin would even recognize Zelensky as a president or Ukraine as a country to negotiate with, I might agree. This might be a scenario i'd see as likely. At the minute its not. Its Russia's stubborn maximalist aim (and its need to take the fortified Donetsk areas so it can push forward in the next war) -- Russia has FINALLY had its oil industry sanctioned by the US, yesterday. Which is only going to accelerate this. Then there are 'rumors' people are going to transfer frozen Russian assets to Ukraine, but don't hold your breath on that one.

And BTW if this pattern continued throughout the world for the next X amount of years, everyone would be in the same boat, it's not me saying there is this grand separation, just Russia is being focused on faster for obvious reasons. That's all I really should be saying to people, as they argue over the timeframe. I don't have a timeframe only a line that goes downward. This was a decent video. I've dropped it at the part regarding defaults and bonds. Honest too, as the Ukrainians are about to lose that city, well, in the next 'months'. Just as Russia stacks junk bonds on to companies that won't foot the bill, citizens will in their prices and wages.

There are many reasons for the collapse; he is aware of a couple of them. 67 Russian regions are defaulting (or very close). They are there now, not tomorrow, not next year, now. Many were there in September before these drone hits. The country as a whole is approaching default. That means no money for anything. In practice, if you don't have a paid government, you don't have a government. The police might be paid to maintain order, but that's it. So where can this money come from? Other countries or its own citizens. The food harvests are down because the workers are dead. Fertiliser can't be shipped or is coming at a higher cost than usual, pushing up food prices. A lot of people aren't taking the trucking contracts because the fuel costs are too high. - This is just a microscosm of what I mean, goods and services are having the same issue. Russia can't afford to supply a large number of men at war. The reason its had men who will go, is not out of some blind patriotism; its for a paycheck. That's over. Large bonuses are over. So what do they do, lie to foreigners, abduct the homeless, or throw in prisoners, but that's running out too. Russia is not at the start of this process it's nearer the end because his analysis is partial at best. There's no real manoeuvre left in the economy, it's put itself into a spiral. Is it collapsing tomorrow? Next year, no, it's collapsing now, gradually, not dramatically. Let me ask you what killed the Soviet Union, what really killed it? The people did. The prediction has never been wrong, it's been a steady squeeze for the entire war. The war economy hasn't surprised me; it's given lots of bonuses out of its wealth fund. That war fund is over now. Lack of protests hasn't surprised me either, with all the crackdowns and the indifference of the population. But not the indifference to their own quality of life. Can Russians put up with more? In the worst-off areas, sure, in Moscow and St Petersburg, not really, they lose their minds when the power goes down for a day. This will be tested in the remote areas when people starve because they can't get food. Or die through a lack of medical supplies (as is happening now). Or Freeze to death this winter from a lack of fuel. - That's not hyperbole, they really are out of fuel in many areas, that's what i'm pointing at. That and Putin lacking the control necessary now over the more distant regions that have been suffering for a long time. Yes the economy rose. Because it used all its spare money and sovereign wealth fund. People loved it because they got all the benefits of going to war. That's over now. Building missiles to fire gives nothing back to the economy; its all spent. That's one reason why the stock market is tanking. This isn't World War 2 in Germany. When you can blitzkrieg your opponent with better technology. Its not soviet Russia because drones rule. Manpower, even if Russia could pay it (it can't), is becoming secondary to the production of drones. - Russia isn't bad at this BTW, its better than Europe because we are stupidly not advancing our own capacity sufficiently, but it's behind Ukraine. The end state is obvious to me, I am sorry its not to you. It will come as an adjustment. Its a negotiation, bail out or the end of the Russian state. Unless something surprises me (like Russia propaganda being successful on the Europeans), the pattern is there and obvious.

Russia doesn't have a choice. It is going to collapse. The timeline is subject to outside influence, acceleration, or deceleration, but that's it. Such as continuing to cut off Russian sales of oil, the rate at which Ukraine's weapons production continues to increase, how much Russia bailed out by others, Europeans willingness to go a few more years, and the state of the US (I mean, there is a violent period coming in the US, that's a likely outcome in America not guaranteed- but its starting now, which BTW could affect anyone, including Russia/China). It does not have the capacity to strike anything, other than sabotage some Eastern European refineries, which everyone is choosing to ignore. You refer to strategic nukes, the ones that are still working, as so far every test of their missile as a show of force has failed. No other missile is hitting anything in NATO. Which is not 'striking NATO arm industries' they'd be ending themselves. This is not a solution to an economic collapse. You realise that yes? Russia doesn't have the ability to fight NATO as you describe. It doesn't have the ability to prevent its collapse based on the current pattern. What it does have the capacity to do I have described. To keep on this path and end up collapsing. Mass mobilisation leading to the ruin of their country quickly. Negotiating with Ukraine as a country - Putin won't do this. Putin falling out of a window and thus anything is possible. *BTW even if the leader is worse than Putin, nobody is going to care if he is not as intent on forming the USSR like that old KGB Fossil. There is nobody right now that could do a worse job, in this current moment, of managing Russia's future than putin because he's unable to make any moves but run right into a wall, and is hated by so many. China and BRICS finance more of the war and try to slow his collapse - But in that case we just get more death and a longer war with the same Russian collapse. There is a possibility someone in Europe will negotiate with Putin (which is far more palatable than Trump doing it) I've been racking my brain about who might. Turkey is the only European-friendly or NATO-friendly state that will occur in imho with their relations with Russia not being terrible, but that'll be Putin Negotiating, not just demanding. But Turkey may be too NATO-friendly for Russia, the Saudi's? Probably too Russian-friendly. This meeting in Hungary by a Russian sycophant, with his country dependent on their oil, was doomed to be rejected. Political stunts. Invade Estonia. Try to take it, ransom it for Ukraine. - This will not work out, even if its possible, because it'll just accelerate their decline further. Further aggressive actions won't help them at this point. So if he's unable to change, and nothing surprising happens, Putin will die. That's an obvious outcome to this. Whether he dies quietly off camera, or in a dramatic moment, who knows.

Infinity. There is no destination or working towards anything. There is no way to measure something inside of it. Pick something and focus on it, you'll experience more of that. That's about it really. Sad to say, it's idealism in you meeting practicality, its never nice. Just try not to be overly fatalistic or nihilistic, as that's a common response which also needs balancing. Pick something and focus on it, you'll experience more of that - That's pretty much what I read you looking for, but the answer is always going to be yours.

Here is the general fuel shortage map attached: https://x.com/delfoo/status/1979533376127398251/photo/1 What this translates to in real life is. Queues. Plenty of gas stations don't have fuel, some have closed as they cannot afford to operate because of a cap on prices. When one gets fuel people spread the word and go to it, forming long queues. This is after 2.5 months, the problem gets progressively worse not better, and will continue to do so as more damage is inflicted on depots, pumping stations, refinery deposits, pipelines etc. Picture this again at 10 months... into an already pained, backsliding economy Its a degradation of all aspects of the Russian economy and life, including the military, as the occupied areas are easiest to hit. Crimea is losing all its storage capacity in an attempt to depopulate the area. Then the bridge can be blown, and it's cut off. So its sustained growing pressure to speed up Russia's collapse. There was a report that certain local governors were saying they had 1% of the funds they needed to end the year on. The country is not too far from collapsing. I am not trying to BS people, or hyperbole it. Not without a pattern change of some kind. China moving in to take over more, bailing out Russia, a negotiated peace, independence movements trying to save their regions etc. Something substantial, or that's it.

**** Correction **** If capitalists (corporatists) don't enforce borders, white nationalists will. Why is this important? Because this addresses the two dynamics of the problem. Race and Profit. The other dynamics are things such as social cohesion vs quality of life, but these are not given consideration by the political class. Despite all the things you are about or want to tell me. Which I will nod and agree with.