BlueOak

In part this is because eastern cities no longer exist and are under russian control. Largely, though, this was pre the borders being closed. The war is certainly a factor but this was more or less true for both countries at the start of the war: https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/09/russia-new-demographic-crisis?lang=en The problem russia faces is not the same one Ukraine does. With Ukraine its losing cities and population centers. With Russia its the lack of money for anything but the war. To provide money for families requires money, and they don't have it, they've cut everything they can. But war certainly doesn't encourage birth rates in either country. Russia have tried to solve this by importing labor from Central or east Asia, but more people know that means they can end up facing the barrel of a gun, so they are more wary. That and as the article suggests, Russia isn't the rich country in the east anymore, there are better options to migrate to.

That's a convenient propaganda piece. BRICS supply economic and military support to Russia. They support Russia diplomatically also. Ditto Venezuela or Iran. I understand its a bit like how everyone blamed NATO for decades when America ran amok (and still do) i accepted it in the end, 'the evil west' narrative etc, they still go on about it now. But at least in BRICS case, it's more accurate that they are working together, most of the countries cooperating, like India signing treaties to work with Russian troops, or China sending parts and arms into Russia for Ukraine (some say via north korea), Iran sending drones. I'd say NATO is hardened in Europe, its always been a defensive alliance, more so now than ever after being repeatedly threatend by Russia. There are a few countries that would waver but not many if it was attacked. Picking off outliers like Iran and Venezula in the current climate is understandable from this perspective. Like Thailand or Taiwan for BRICS. They are softer targets. i think China is poking the bear too much with Japan and won't like the end result there however, it'd be the same when Russia attacks the Baltics if there is enough left of their country to do so after Ukraine is concluded.

@zazen Most of that I agree with yes. But Russia gains were better earlier, these days they are at a snail's pace comparatively. What they have done is gone around the problems rather than into them in the south, not even in the cities they claim to have taken but in other areas. Its a bit insane how the propaganda works because if they actually told people what they taken, and didn't focus on city names in constant lies because it sounds 'good' it'd be a different conversation. I guess KM's taken doesn't translate to excitement or something people can remember. Infantry pushes over large territories are still favorable. At a high cost but favorable. Ukraine's a wide territory, I know next to Russia it looks small but its not a small battlefield, it's very open, not much cover, and slow, and bitter in winter, you can send a drone in, (soon drone squads I mean they operate often in clusters) but unless there are literally a thousand of them they'd just be flanked. However drones hold territory very well. Fast, covering a lot of ground. No fear. No chance of retreat. No cost to train, only to maintain and a cheap cost to build in the first place. The operators are usually safe from counter so their training remains consistent and only improves. Cheap aerial drones hold territory exceptionally well, but they are not going to push up into buildings all too well; they only clear the way. I mean 20 of those machine gun or Anti tank drones with some AA cover would hold a line or ruined village well enough on the land also, but like I say they are getting better over time; this is still early days for drone war. There will be mine and cluster bomb drones soon enough, then worse.

Most Political leaders don't care about what we think should happen in regards to rivals or other countries. If they have a strong base support of 30%, there is enough suppression and media control that they can do whatever they like toward their rivals. America is moving into the Russian and Chinese model, where tbh they don't even need 30% support, but it helps to have a nationalist population from which to draw military personnel and internal paramilitary or state policing and suppression of the populace (ICE, or the Rosgvardiya in Russia, the People's Armed Police (PAP) in China etc) The problem is people think the world behaves differently to how it now behaves. In the authoritarian system we are moving towards globally. This is the new reality. Your voices and opinions do not matter. To the point that any theatrics or clever politicial manouvering is no longer required for a leader to attack his rivals either. Sorry to be blunt with everyone here, but i've had that for a long time being a socialist, and now its implemented over the wider population.

Never happening. Russia don't do peace. Ukraine already offered territory, again and again. They just push until they are stopped. Been that way for centuries, and they are trying the same old again because they have the backing of BRICS. Again, though, manpower means little when tactical nukes are involved. Tactical nukes can take out hundreds of thousands, even a low yield one. Not the big world ending nukes, the smaller battlefield ones. If BRICS get further involved, they already are materially and with some manpower, then other countries would get further involved also. Drones are king now. Manpower helps with that, but industrial capacity (and technology) helps more. The more I understand how warfare is now being fought: Russia are far more geared for war than China is, China has invested billions in technologies that don't matter. America is planning billion dollar battleships that can be brought down with a few hundred drones, they still think expensive = good, no it's just expensive. India, China and America are honestly behind where the current arms race is, their minds are not even in the right place. Not to say it will always be that way, there may be effective anti drone countermeasures eventually, but I tend to think not with the current pattern, they are just so cheap compared to everything else, and most of them can fly independent of any control or signal once on target. Euorpe has worked closely with Ukraine, very closely. I am sure China are not sitting idle either but I don't see it in the forces they keep showing off. All Taiwan needs is several thousand cheap drones and all those landing craft they parade around will be at the bottom of the ocean. Analysis of the pattern says Russia will not collapse, but there is a fair likelihood of severe economic issues (they are already set), and if unstopped the war grinding on to a stalemate of 2 million Russia casualties in 2 more years. When I had this discussion with my objective GPT, to keep my own bias neutralised. It said to post to your statement that manpower wins wars: How does your theory handle logistics, training time, equipment losses, precision attrition, and political endurance—without defaulting to unlimited escalation? Because that's what we are facing right now. India China and Russia throwing millions of people into tactical nukes and drones. There would not be a winner. So if China, India and Russia want to keep escalating and demanding, that's where we will end up.

As people always tell me manpower wins wars. This year moreso than ever these are going to be used, and they are only getting improved. People still say when will robots start fighting on the front line? Well, it is now. There was a part here where a land drone was hit by a Russian air drone, i've not seen that before. Compared to the rest of the world (except Ukraine) Russia's military is impressive but not because of tanks or manpower, because they are the second best drone force on the planet, second only to Ukraine. At this point there are entire sections of the front, held by these drones, because it's not easy to take them out with infantry, and tanks are just large slow drone targets, all that hits them well is other drones, or jets but they are expensive comparatively, and artillery is often too risky to reveal - because of air drones.

Here is a discussion. Power. People like to put rules on what power should be. Many follow these rules. Most leaders do not have these rules. Consequently, there is always a delusion or disconnect between reality and conversations. Would a leader, someone not following these rules kill a rival, yes. Would people be outraged, yes. - Would that matter, most times no. You and this forum (all forums) are operating under different rules to reality. I am not discussing the rules, its not my forum, and I understand why they exist, as people and institutions that govern communications have expectations, which sadly do not line up with how reality functions. I am just pointing out why this disconnect exists

Russia are trying this angle to drive a wedge between the US and Europe. They are going to get increasingly desperate this year as they have dug a large hole for themselves economically, and their air defense is a joke now with Ukraine hitting them harder each month, but their propaganda is still pretty good as most people seem to be influenced by it, like this thread here. There is an outside chance of tensions over greenland, but its fairly low. This is coming from someone who dislikes America and hates trump currently. It is correct; however, Trump is of a different ideology to most European leaders. However China is a bigger threat to their trade routes, while Europe is just ideologically not aligned with what I would call an authoritarian state in the making. Trump however is somewhat beholden to Russia, as they helped him get in power.

YES. Exactly. This is exactly the point. China is just doing what the west did. And all I hear is people saying oh its fine because they are going about it differently. Drives me bonkers. What America is doing in Venezula is equivalent to what Russia is doing in Ukraine, or what Israel did in Palestine, or what China did in Tibet, or what India did in Kashmir etc etc and on we go. All you'll get as responses to this is how the situation was initially different, but the underlying impulse is always the same, fear of the other, the other not being enough alike. Putin doesn't have the resources to continue in Ukraine with China's lifesupport, and at best he's got a year or so left there. Now you are stuck in the mindset. So Europe needs to fight Russia then. By the same logic. They need to destroy Russia. Do you not see how this logic does not help?

I will throw a scenario at you though: @Daniel Balan If I am offering you a lot of money for your resources. And/OR Buying up your infastructure Your politicians. The media you consume The provider of your jobs Your ports. Your trade routes etc Its a step above directly throwing bombs at you, but it's still expansionism. I win - you lose. Just done with cash and pressure rather than guns (and maybe the odd assassination). The internet wars going on for your mind and opinion right now are just another face of it. And the root is this: I want the world to be like me. - People hate this when I remind them.

I didn't say they couldn't. I am telling you what's happening. You make the mistake of thinking i agree with any of it. Until countries are no longer playing zero sum games, as in I win you lose, this is the reality. *What most people posting that above fail to tell you is. This is how humans are the world over in their daily lives. Reinforced in their own internal conversations in their own mind, let alone the media, instutions, governments and realities they construct.

We are doing WW3. But nobody likes to talk about it. Current theaters are: Syria, Iran, Ukraine, Cambodia/Thailand, Venezula, Palestine, Several African Countries, soon Taiwan, possibly the baltics, pakistan etc. Anything that's on the frontlines between BRICS and NATO. When you ask yourself why, a lot of the world wants the war. It took me awhile to accept it but I have. America hitting Venezuela for the oil is to deny China's takeover of south America, of which it has heavy influence on. Venezula is a case of an expansionist power—China—coming up against American interests, aka oil.

After Putin vows that no deal will happen. Three waves of drones hit across Russia. Blacking out moscow for several hours. The density of this air campaign even surprised me. But that's where the money is going, into drones. Which are to knock out refineries, factories, power plants, depots, substations, etc. With this level of hits, if the Kremlin really does start targeting the Ukranian government en masse, they are going to lose most of their own Duma unless they put them all in bunkers. Zelensky said there would be daily drone waves, and I doubted him, but they've been coming in steady, with the occasional flare-up like this. I guess sending 500 to 2,000 dollar drones into Russia is cost-effective after all, when a hundred drones probably equals the cost of a missile. @zazen Its highly unlikely any deal will be made. Putin has a fixed position and bad information about the war, the Russians and their supporters believe their own propaganda and I increasingly get the impression he does also. Or they've just accepted 2 million casualties and another 2 years to take the regions they've tried to annex (along with 20 years of civil unrest and paramilitary actions in those regions) That will be a possible end state to the war. Russias economy is already toast, like Ukraine's and both will need life support. But Russia won't stop so they'll have to pay that price, if they can hold it together under increasing pressure internally and externally. They were just repelled quite badly on the frontlines, so I might be overestimating the pace they can pull this off, as things get closer to a stalemate. I also have severe doubts Russia will be able to continue for 2 more years, especially if we move into a global conflict with BRICS and more countries directly get involved.

Oh yes, because hostility to russia always puts you on their good side. I'll remember that when the next round of nuclear threats comes our way, which should be sometime tomorrow. I have to wonder with these people if they are just jumping through hoops because of ideology or they have no idea what they are talking about. But its easy when you are not under direct threat. Here I have an idea, why don't they try all this high and mighty diplomacy with Pakistan? Oh bit harder there right? Right. Easier and more effective to threaten force and nukes. Oh that reminds of somewhere else. Ukraine and Russia. Hmm. Could it be humans act almost identically the world over when faced with similiar problems? No No. Indians are far superior to all us poor Europeans. Enlightened, their conflicts are special. The Eastern Europeans couldn't possibly have the same emotion toward a country that has invaded them for centuries, that's just reserved for India. I hate how self-flattering India has become. Its a part of authoritarian states that I detest, the enlargement of national ego. @zazen If you don't invade and threaten to nuke the country or countries you are investing in, your investments are fine. You act like this is all in a bubble. The detachment Russian supporters have from the consquences of a war is mind boggling. As if any country on earth wouldn't do the exact same thing. Europe is not a victim. Insert my large sigh. We have one poster claiming they have no idea what they are doing, and the other saying how they are poor victims. That somehow they have it both easier because their wars aren't as difficult India's have been and harder because they don't know what they are doing. People are quite capable of making their own decisions. The European one is blindingly simple. Keep the war as far east as possible. All Putin's stupidity in targetting these countries is doing is what it always does, harden sentiment against Russia It's a stupid calculation made by a stupid mind, as it's forever expanded NATO. If russia stoped using fear, they'd have probably already won the war. Instead, they target other countries and civilians and threaten everyone - its just dumb all around. A country unable to change, and another reason authoritarian states are not possible to coexist with in peace. Any destruction of Russian economic assets is perfectly reasonable in war. And yes nobody should have chinese operations in sensitive areas of their country; I've said this for years. We can trade with China but not allow things like infrastructure projects by China, its just inviting the same thing it does of all authoritarian states, invasion, coercion, and political meddling. *As an aside, this is what the destruction of the economic world order looks like. All of this i've posted, from people taking investments, to the ruination of your opponents' economies, and isolation of states. People want it though, so its happening.

Because Russians arrest and execute protestors. Because that is their method of control. I've seen it happen in Russia all the time, let alone proxy countries. Did you see what they did to Chechnya or Syria? Before the response is, so did America, yeah to a certain extent, usually from 30,000 feet but yeah they are becoming increasingly like Russia or China openly. I was literally watching the opposition leader come to the protestors and he was so tone-deaf to them it was like looking at a brick wall, he was completely incompetent. That was why things got so bad, trying to apply Russian style tactics and governance to a society that had changed, and Russia was not able or willing to change their governance or institutions with it.

This seems accurate. I'd make it even more succinct. The front lines of BRICS vs NATO are the warzones and any country caught behind them or on them is in trouble going forward. (Especially behind them) Thailand - Venezula- Taiwan - Iran - Syria for example. Both sides think they can win. America, China, Russia are all expansionist, so more conflicts are all but inevitable; too many actors and groups want to see Russia or Ukraine fail to have a lasting peace, but beyond that my point still stands. Wars only happen if the populations are willing to fight them, and with Russia having killed, tortured and abducted so many, hit the Ukrainian civilians for years, there is no way this is a cozy peaceful relationship going forward. Not with Russia sitting on Ukraines land. Its just primed for more conflicts.

You have a very low opinion of the Russian ability for decision-making to believe the US can provoke Russia into something. For me wars are due to a multitude of reasons and can only happen if two sides are willing to fight it. It doesn't matter for example if the US wants the UK to go to war with france or not, it wouldn't happen. Moreover, there are so many reasons Russia wants war with Ukraine, whatever the US did or didn't do is nearly irrelevant, the war was set in motion after the Ukrainian government, an incompetent puppet of Russia started executing protestors in the streets, and caused an uprising. Even before that when Russia failed to modernise in the slightest or move into a more dynamic social contract with its population (as even China has managed to on some level), which meant the changing dynamics inside Ukraine only met static uncompromising friction, not good governance able to adapt to them. - This is because of the Muscovites' attitude toward their provinces, which they see as lesser than St. Petersburg or Moscow. However, the very fact the US keeps trying to make peace with Russia and keeps holding Ukraine back is the main indicator i'd use as argument against your position. *You could argue that the global rise in racism has hit multiethnic countries like Russia the most.

You are a heck of an optimist. If China do not invade Taiwan, I give it 5 years till an incident big enough to cause a minor war occurrs. If China do go to war, Russia and Ukraine will mysteriously become a flashpoint in 2026/2027 as a distraction. But realistically it'll be as long as Russia needs to repair and refit itself for the 3rd invasion of Ukraine. Who blew the nord stream depends who you ask. If I were guessing i'd say Ukraine, as they've had a sustained strategy of bringing the war to an end through damage to the Russian economy: Nord Stream Pipeline Sabotage – Theories & Current Assessment by my objective analysis GPT 5.2 The Main Theories (and Where Each Stands) 1. Russian involvement Arguments for: Russia had the technical capability and regional access. Sabotage could serve as escalation signaling or strategic leverage. Arguments against: Russia already controlled gas flow and could halt supply by closing valves. Destroying its own multi-billion-euro infrastructure offers limited strategic benefit. Status: Suspected early on, but no public proof. 2. Ukrainian-linked operation (the “yacht theory”) Arguments for: German, Danish, and Swedish investigations focused on a small group using a rented yacht. Explosives residue was reportedly detected. Intelligence leaks suggested individuals with Ukrainian ties, possibly acting without official state authorization. Arguments against: The logistics of deep-sea demolition from a small yacht strain credibility. No verified chain of command or funding source has been established. Ukraine officially denies involvement. Status: Currently the strongest investigative lead in Europe, but still unproven. 3. U.S. involvement Arguments for: The U.S. had long opposed Nord Stream politically and strategically. President Biden publicly stated Nord Stream would not proceed if Russia invaded Ukraine. Investigative journalist Seymour Hersh alleged a covert U.S.–Norwegian operation. Arguments against: The claim relies on a single anonymous source. No independent verification. The U.S. and Norway strongly deny the allegation. Status: High-profile allegation, not corroborated. 4. Non-state or proxy group Arguments for: Explains deniability and mixed signals. Fits modern “grey-zone” warfare patterns. Arguments against: Requires advanced explosives, underwater expertise, intelligence access, and funding. Unlikely without state backing. Status: Possible, but highly speculative. Other Countries Sometimes Discussed 🇵🇱 Poland Why it comes up: Long-standing opposition to Nord Stream. Increased naval activity in the Baltic after 2022. A former Polish foreign minister publicly thanked the U.S. after the blast (later described as rhetoric). Why it’s weak: No forensic or intelligence evidence. Would almost certainly require allied coordination. Credibility: Low to medium speculation, no proof. 🇳🇴 Norway Why it comes up: Major gas supplier to Europe after Nord Stream’s destruction. Advanced undersea and naval capabilities. Mentioned in Hersh’s reporting. Why it’s weak: Allegation rests entirely on disputed sourcing. High NATO and diplomatic risk. Norway denies involvement. Credibility: Speculative. 🇬🇧 United Kingdom Why it comes up: Elite naval special operations capability. Political opposition to Nord Stream. Why it’s weak: No leaks, forensic evidence, or intelligence findings. High political risk with limited independent gain. Credibility: Very low. 🇩🇪 Germany Why it comes up: Pipeline owner and host nation. Fringe “false-flag” theories exist. Why it’s weak: Germany suffered significant economic damage. No rational national incentive. German prosecutors continue active investigation. Credibility: Extremely low. 🇫🇷 France Why it comes up: Advanced naval and undersea engineering capability. NATO Baltic presence. Why it’s weak: No strategic incentive. No investigative or intelligence indicators. Credibility: Near-zero. Where Investigations Stand Germany: Ongoing criminal investigation focused on individual perpetrators. Denmark & Sweden: Confirmed sabotage, closed public inquiries without attribution. No court verdict, no public intelligence consensus, no formal attribution to date. What Analysts Broadly Agree On Likely: State-level capability (or state backing). Deliberate deniability as part of the operation. Possible passive awareness by multiple actors (awareness ≠ responsibility). Unlikely: A purely independent activist group. A rogue state acting without allied awareness. A near-term “smoking gun” disclosure. The Most Honest Conclusion We know it was sabotage. We know it required state-level capability or support. We do not yet know — provably — who ordered it. Any claim beyond that moves from evidence into interpretation

In your propaganda narrative this is what happened. In reality the US wants to reign in Ukraine and Eastern Europe. I've heard every country accused of that, from Ukraine, to the US, to Russia, to the baltic states, etc.

@Breakingthewall The better question for me to give you is. How long will the peace last. Don't even answer from Russia's perspective. Answer it from Ukraine's. Let's give the scenario that Russia will do absolutely nothing to go further into Ukraine, not even economically, nothing at all. How long will Ukrainians let Russia sit on their lands? As a country. Let's even say both leaders do their utmost to maintain peace. how long are these two nations that have killed each other for X years (2014, 2018 or 2022) and now have one of them forcibly occupying the other's territory, going to sit side by side along a huge border without incident enough for war? This is me giving you the best scenario possible. Which it won't be. Realistically Russia will keep trying to destabilize Ukraine, and Russians will keep dying mysteriously for their war crimes. And some of those republics will realise how badly they've had it, and probably cause issues themselves, like crime, terrorism, etc in the ruined cities.

At the levels they were doing? Never. Nobody is stupid enough to give Russia that much leverage over their economies again. Even Germany who are completely backwards on nuclear power. I'd say 10-20% is safer, but even that's a lot of leverage to give Russia over their economies. They'll need to see demonstrated peace and cease fire for a good few years before committing.

Europe's fine. Impoverished is your Russia propaganda talking. Sure there isn't as much to party with, but Europe's doing fine. Russia is toast economically; its in debt up to its eyeballs, and the men coming in to replace the dead Russias into their work force are from China, just like the money coming in, the companies, the contracts, the imports and arms, the technology. Russia is China's puppet. There is little China needs from Russia apart from cheaper and cheaper energy, whereas Russia needs everything from China to keep functioning. That's a puppet state. It's been a long war for both sides; Ukraine is not exhausted; they are still fighting. Russia is still making slower and slower gains. Which is gradually bringing the war to an end. Ukraine will get money to be rebuilt; it is doing. Ukraine will sell arms and grain to Europe long-term, as we need an arms industry, and Ukraine has the specialty to do so in what counts, drones, and everyone likes deals on food. China won't let Russia fall but it will own much of it. Russia is and will remain a resource state for China, used up as manpower in the wars it directs westward. As a sovereign nation its finished. You might say the same about Ukraine, only the EU tends to be defensive in nature and sit back. So Ukraine will get a good deal balanced and negotiated by many countries, Russia will get whatever China decides is right, it'll jump when China says so or it'll collapse. Ukraine will not have the same relationship with the EU. Its Belt and Road project has already claimed much of the trade routes through Russia and dictates the development of the nation, both in what industries they support, own or design around these projects. The only markets it has left for its exports are China, with India buying less than half. Now the Americans, under trump they could prop up Russia, could decide to pal up with Vladimir as Trump is seemingly doing, and thus become enemies with Europe. Which is a possibility; I mean there is an outside possibility of a war (skirmish) over Greenland now with the US. Trump is an authoritarian lunatic, who openly likes to grab power, much like Putin or Xi Jinping. They are all from the same mold, masks off, take what they can get

Happy for you I did too, after a long time without. I am also sick, and she also has cooked for me while ill. It was about that point that you and I might have realised we found a good woman. Genuinely the best wishes for you, and all the happiness you both can have.

Hate the world and almost everyone running it. Love the people day to day, and the small local community for the most part respects me and I get on well with most everyone. I walked down the road the other day and got 3 honks of the horns before i'd even got down the road. Met a girl. Its gone really well. Her daughter and I get on too. Fast though. I missed waking up with her today as I stayed a night in my own place, but I have a tendency to pull back to need days for myself. I mean free of work or anyone else. I just like alone time. I've stopped writing to make time; I don't feel the need so much when I have that closeness with another, although I miss the hobby. I want to do a business again as my work hours dip to 30 at this time of year till about March/April. So I have time to plan, but yesterday and today I just wanted to rest in the time I had; I had a shift yesterday but only a half day. Right now (lunchtime) I am deciding between learning a skill that combines writing with something practical and another large business project with my business partner. And honestly, I don't know. I can't keep working where I am, the place is nice, the people are but I need more from my life and career. Mother is still bed ridden, dad and I can talk but otherwise i've no interest, brother looks like he's clean but i've seen that before many times, at least he's had a stable girlfriend/job for a while now.

What you've just said is programming the mind for success.