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And yet they’ve been crazy enough to flirt with NATO lite in Ukraine despite repeated warnings from their own intelligence and strategists. It deters total war not limited war. Nuclear deterrence doesn’t guarantee that conventional or limited war won’t take place - just see India Pakistan recently. It leaves too little gap for error and creates a constant state of tension existing that any power would resist having if they could. They are essentially living by tripwire Armageddon - hoping false flags won’t take place. One nation can be crazy enough to call the bluff of the other not using nuclear which would result in mutually assured destruction. So conventional security logic and strategic depth still apply.

@Leo Gura I agree in heart, but my head knows that laws, rights and principles are aspirations rooted in the soul, articulated in the mind, but constrained by a physical material reality. I can aspire to the stars like Elon musk but that doesn’t suspend the reality and fact of gravity or physics. The fundamental flaw in the logic of liberal internationalism is that whilst rights and principles are better to live by, they don’t erase power dynamics or override security / survival imperatives. Legality can’t and will never override survivability, principles will never override power, rights will never override might - they can only regulate them. Just like you‘ve been pointing out how progressives / liberals under-appreciate survival dynamics which hasn’t helped them politically. Same applies here? Countries and people have rights, but countries and people also have instincts - and instincts precede intellect the same way power precedes principle, or the physical precedes the mental abstractions (constructs) of law. Sovereignty doesn’t exist in a vacuum and neither should it be romanticised as an absolute that overlooks the relative world in which it lives - ignoring reality until the consequences of doing so assert themselves. US led Western hegemony is self-absorbed to the point it doesn’t recognise other powers exist with their own sphere and red lines - they think the whole world is their dominion and sphere. That’s the mindset which has set the conditions in motion for what’s occurring now.

Here ya go:

Just learnt this today:

@Basman Agree with Karmadhi here. No one’s said it’s a good thing - you guys conflate understanding with justification. It’s similar to understanding the context behind October 7th and the same way Zionists would conflate that with condoning the brutal act. The point is to understand the conditions that eventually lead to such blatant acts of aggression or violence / terrorism - in order to prevent them. I’ve literally said there are legitimate causes (security concerns) gone about in illegitimate ways (invasion, October 7th). About the cause - you’re saying it’s regime security and ideology, rather than security logic. Putin can definitely benefit domestically by framing NATO expansion as a threat, but that’s not a primary cause - perhaps not even secondary, but can be opportunistically used sure. What you name as ideology is really identity - which acts as a really powerful accelerant to the core cause I agree. All Russia leaders have said NATO in Ukraine would be a red line. It’s not unique to Putin. Putins approval tanked after Crimea in fact - so why would he do another invasion knowing it put his popularity at risk before, thus the regimes security at risk. Former Director of the CIA Bill Burns in his 2008 memos (Nyet means nyet) said: “Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite (not just Putin). In more than two and a half years of conversations with key Russian players, from knuckle-draggers in the dark recesses of the Kremlin to Putin’s sharpest liberal critics, I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests.” Ideology doesn’t erase geography and security concerns. US didn’t blockade Cuba primarily because of ideology or to secure its Democracy from a commie utopian island next door that may have been. It was primarily a security concern of having missiles from a rival power stationed that close to you. If all parties involved (Russia-Ukraine-US) shared the same ideology (liberalism) and political system (democracy) - would Russia still react to security concerns on its periphery in a historical invasion corridor? Or would Russia say no it’s cool they’re a liberal Democracy just like us? Security concerns exist regardless of ideology or political systems - and are acted upon. On the identity point: you bring up the cultural similarity between Ukraine and Russia which is where I think theres an added element of bitterness and betrayal. But it isn’t ideology like of the Soviet times being pushed out. Ukraine/Kiev is the cultural/civilisational heart of Russia - that being turned against you is literally vodka on the wound. What would just ordinarily be a cold (logical) security concern becomes a hot (emotional) burning concern. It’s like if a hostile rival to Saudi Arabia - such as Iran - were to turn Mecca against Saudi Arabia. The entire Sunni Muslim world would be fuming because it’s a civilization spit in the face - beside also being an existential threat to Saudi. The root cause that is structurally driving a response is security, with the cultural/civilizational aspect being a powerful accelerant. That intensifies the security concern and makes it a easy sell to domestic Russians to rally around. It’s not only that the West is parking missiles on their doorstep, but that it’s in their childhood home - the cradle of their civilisation. The core logic of security would exist even if Ukraine were as foreign as Mexico. Power plus proximity equals panic for any power - and is responded to every time. I recommend the latest Lex Fridman and Scott Horton podcast - the last segment on Ukraine. That covers the core cause very well in a way that doesn’t glaze authoritarianism or Putin.

Slimy is also having no backbone or foresight to do what’s in your national or continental interest. Slimy is not getting to the bottom of Nordstream or despite doing so not releasing the relevant information because your scared of the consequences. Slimy is doing fuck all about the self inflicted wounds their lack of foresight or leadership cause, then licking them in some moral highground while your peoples quality of life deteriorate for a larger geopolitical game you have little say in. Slimy is sitting like schools kids around Trump praising him for establishing a diplomatic channel with Putin when they could have simply picked up the phone and done so themselves. I mean, the war is literally on their continent not Americas - so it’s in their interest to deal with it and bring it to an end. If Tucker Carlson could get a sit down with Putin, no excuse for Euro studs to get a call. Instead, they bitch cry about how they aren’t part of talks that will decide the fate of their continent, after they’ve stonewalled any such talks for 3.5 years like some cult bought into the idea of Putin the new Hitler who’s country needs to be balkanized - as Kaja Kalllas said. Guess we’re going to enjoy the 5% GDP on defence spending, cuts to welfare and further political polarization to the right which nationalists foaming at the mouth will resist and revolt over. Enjoy lol I see many videos of talks of a civil war in UK racking up 10s to 100s of thousands of views. Just see the comments to get the sentiment. I know a client who works in special forces / counter terrorism and he said they’re also predicting/prepping for this worst case scenario. But we’re to believe all these men will go to war to fight an external country like Russia when they see the enemy is within.

10 hours long, but last part (1.5hr) is on Ukraine which is very good. Scott Hortons a encyclopaedia: The last half hour is especially good. From 9hr 51min.

Chat GPT you quoted said their war economy isn't sustainable - long term definitely not. If Russia is suffering so bad economically and militarily I don't see why they would escalate to that level by attacking a NATO country. I got to 2mill by including 800k emigration (which I quickly googled) and 1.2m loss to the war. True on the quality of those that have left, it's a disproportionately negative effect, I just think the scale can't be compared to the same degree. Even if I'm really generous and estimate a 3 million reduction in the Russian population that's still 2% compared to over 20% in Ukraine according to the figures. Half lost to battle and half who've left, most of who probably won't return as they settle for a better more stable life elsewhere in Europe. The irony is that the West demands India and China respect Europe’s security, while Europe refuses to respect Russia’s. India and China, all the way on the other side of the planet, should worry about Europe's security concern - who are only concerned now after refusing to recognize Russia's which prompted Russia to act upon that very concern. Again - Russia didn't place itself in NATO expansions way, it was the other way round. Just like how Palestinians didn't place themselves in the way of Zionist expansion. But both will have you believe its the Russian and Palestinians fault for existing in the way of both of their ambitions for dominance and primacy. Such a shame that China and Iran have placed themselves around US bases too. The EU should recognize its own security interests by dealing with a non-EU member like Ukraine hitting the Druzhba pipeline which provides energy to two EU member states. If Brussels isn’t sanctioning Kyiv for undermining its own energy security, why would India or China take seriously a Russian strike on a US factory making coffee machines which is less critical than striking the energy of a country. Euro News: "Given that in the past years, the EU and its Member States have provided hundreds of billions of Euros' worth of support to Ukraine, we find Ukraine's actions, which severely threaten the energy security of Hungary and Slovakia, completely irresponsible," read the letter, signed by Hungary's Péter Szijjártó, and Slovakia's Juraj Blanár. Speaking of pipelines, economic terrorism upon Nordstream is back in the news:

I think your misreading surface level events or overstating the effects. Refined exports make up 12% of their total exports and 22% of their total energy exports ( the rest is mainly crude and gas ) - so it's not hitting their dominant export. The hits are disrupting but not totally destroying the refineries which get back online within weeks. China and India both have massive refining capacity to absorb more crude and refine it themselves which can cushion the shock if refined exports took a further hit. The West would need simultaneous, large scale sanctions + refinery strikes + secondary sanctions on India/China if it waned to really cripple Russia - which doesn't look to be happening. China isn’t lending to Russia in a debt trap - it’s trading in energy for yuan deals. Russia isn't suffering hyperinflation which is where currency de-values to staggering degrees like in Zimbabwe. In fact their currency has been top performing. It does have high war time inflation of around 10% but that's far from hyperinflation territory. In a sense Ukraine is a proxy right now between the West and BRICS though un-intentionally, except on Russia's part who did choose to invade. But BRICS isn't going to re-orient their trade for higher energy and burnt relations with Russia which they have a history with - for a larger geopolitical game. Biden already tried targeting China with tech (CHIPS) and now Trump is attempting to with trade - yet both aren't holding out so well. The reason Trump hasn't fully steam rolled China with tariffs is due to China's leverage over trade, specifically with rare earths that are critical. So the West just don't seem to have that much leverage in all this. Trade, tech, resources, dollars - all are being worked around or re-oriented towards alternatives. The biggest thing the West had was financial power in a financialized economy - but BRICS have hard power of tangible manufacturing, resources, trade routes and chokepoints and demographics (consumer or future consumer markets). I agree the election point is bogus on the Russian side. As if a country can or should hold one when a quarter of the population are unavailable to vote. That brings me to another point on demographics - Ukraine's lost a quarter of its population ( from approx 40 to now 30 mill ) - displaced or gone. Russia's population has gone from approx 147.2 to 146 mill. The difference as a percentage is around 1-1.5% vs 20-25%. Even if we account for tech workers and youngsters leaving Russia being high quality contributors that have fled - the depth and pool of population is still large and the loss no where near as traumatic compared to Ukraine. Yet a narrative for this war to continue (mainly European elites pushing it) with less arms, money and manpower is suicide for Ukraine. There was that recent hack that apparently found the death and casualties to be 1.7 million for Ukraine but it's not verified as its from a Russian source (hackers). But regardless, even Western establishment acknowledges Ukraine's manpower issue and dire demographics. Kaja Kallas literally said it would be a good idea to fracture and Balkanize Russia, then in another Hudson Institute sit down she said if we can't defeat Russia how will we defeat China - my point being, why the hawkish warmonger posture not only with Russia but now with China lol. There's such a lack of strategic foresight or groundedness in the establishment thinking and posture towards this entire situation. As if it’s a great idea to try and de-stabilize and contain a nuclear armed, resource rich Russia who is your geographic neighbor no amount of wishful thinking can wish away. This is why I say it's the fault of Western hegemony underpinned by Western arrogance and supremacy that has caused the conditions for the shit show we are now in and that aren't helping in getting us out of. The Hitlerization of Putin doesn't help - in fact he's seen as more of a moderate compared to the others like Medvedev - yet depicted as a Hitler wanting to conquer Europe. Russia's either weak enough to continue war with, with their defeat just around the corner, or strong enough to be threatening to Europe in which case we need to psy-op our population to bleed for this pointless war. The reason for nothing moving forward on the deal front is because only Europe/Ukraine's security concerns are considered valid and not Russia's. If theirs no proper framework or agenda to be discussed without adequate pre-conditions what is there to negotiate further. Just as Leo said above, the Western perspective doesn't account for Russia's at all which is why there hasn't been peace and from the looks of it won't be. The only reflex is double down and say peace is not an option now as you have said. The only proposal from the Europeans is to anchor Ukraines security to one bloc (Western) which locks Europe into a permanent frontline state against Russia and basically resembles NATO-lite - the whole issue to begin with. Rather than having a multilateral guarantee (which reflects a multi-polar reality) such as what was floated in Istanbul 2022 (which included Turkey, China) - that was subsequently torpedoed by the West that bet on them weakening and destroying Russia instead. What a change of tone from 2022. Zelensky became too deeply committed off the back of Western backing and promises. It became increasingly difficult for him to backtrack due to various reasons: sunk cost, domestic politics (hardliners), further dependence on the West which means Zelensky isn’t leading Ukrainian strategy but implementing Western strategy with Ukrainian blood. That’s the cost of playing the proxy game when your an ant among elephants fighting. How sovereign and autonomous is Ukraine today? Ukraine’s attempt to achieve 100% sovereignty has resulted in near total loss of actual sovereignty, while the rejected neutrality option would have preserved most of it. Ukraine chose the path that promised 100% sovereignty but delivered perhaps 15% actual sovereignty across all domains - energy, economy, military. Liberals have convinced themselves that the 1648 Peace of Westphalia created some kind of magical force field around every country where they get to do whatever they want without consequences. As if “sovereignty” means freedom from the basic realities of great power politics that have governed international relations for millennia. It’s the flat earth theory of geopolitics and how the world works.

Interesting comments from Leo in 2022:

To produce requires the consumption of energy - which both don’t have enough of for their size and speed of development. China and India are the largest energy consumers in the world alongside EU and US. Both require more consumption and have room for growth - especially India as it’s still developing. Both have locked in with Russia which means for the foreseeable future Russia will be able to sustain itself economically. Both have also brushed off the secondary sanction threat. Arnaud: ''Imagine if Europe had done this with Russia (India resetting ties with China) when Trump started, like he just did with India, to go hostile on trade. Not only would they not be in the absurd situation where they need to negotiate peace with Russia via the intermediary of a hostile Trump, but they also could be rebuilding ties with Russia as leverage against American extortion. And I'm not even speaking about avoiding the pathetic spectacle of being lined up like schoolchildren before Trump's desk, or having to pay several points worth of European GDP in tribute. Now they get the worst of all worlds: public humiliation as American vassals, systematic wealth extraction by the US, a ruinous proxy war they need to pay for, and continuous hostility with their next door neighbor even when, ironically, the US is now restoring relations. In some way it's even politically harder for India to do this than it would have been for Europe vis a vis Russia: the level of animosity towards China of the Indian population is probably greater than that against Russia in Europe. Heck, European leaders would undoubtedly have been cheered by a large proportion of Europeans if they'd taken the diplomatic initiative in Ukraine instead of Trump, all the more if it was as a strategic move to resist Trump. But no, they'd rather sit in the Oval Office like obedient pupils, write $100 billion checks to American defense contractors, and continue playing vassals to a hegemon that openly despises them. Europe doesn't lack the capability for strategic autonomy - it lacks the will, the courage, and apparently, any sense of shame.''

Speaking of the Turkey-Istanbul deal and comparing it to today’s supposed deal in the making. The reason this situation is referred to as a security dilemma is because a security guarantee requires a strong enough guarantor. But then that means two strong rivals who today have nukes could come head to head which is very high risk. It’s essentially tripwire Armageddon. Having the guarantees be exclusively under a Western alliance is functionally NATO-lite. Your chained to whoever underwrites your security - so it being a bloc of Western powers means it can still be used as a pawn in a larger geopolitical game. If the guarantees are multi-lateral or multi-polar - they dilute unilateral dominance and bloc logic. That way it also avoids Ukraine becoming anyone’s vassal and everyone has a stake in peace. Post-WWII Austria followed that model. Austria was guaranteed by the US, USSR, Britain, and France. No one could absorb it without triggering the others, and it’s been neutral and stable till today. A older but good Substack article from Glenn Dieseen going over this and the end game as the title of the thread says. Post-WWII Austria proves this model works. Austria was guaranteed by the U.S., USSR, Britain, and France. No one could absorb it without triggering the others, and it’s been neutral and stable A older but good Substack article from Glenn Diesen going over the Istanbul deal and the endgame of all this. https://glenndiesen.substack.com/p/sabotage-of-the-istanbul-peace-agreement Sabotage of the Istanbul Peace Agreement The Making of a Proxy War & the Unavoidable Istanbul+ Endgame “In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine to impose a settlement after some NATO countries had undermined the Minsk-2 peace agreement for 7 years. On the first day after the invasion, Zelensky confirmed that Moscow contacted him to discuss negotiations based on restoring Ukraine’s neutrality.[1] On the third day after the invasion, Russia and Ukraine agreed to start negotiations on a peace based on Russian military withdrawal in return for Ukrainian neutrality.[2] Zelensky responded favourably to this condition, and he even called for a “collective security agreement” to include Russia to mitigate the security competition that had sparked the war.[3] The negotiations that followed are referred to as the Istanbul negotiations, in which Russia and Ukraine were close to an agreement before the US and the UK sabotaged it. Washington Rejects Negotiations Without Preconditions In Washington, there were great incentives to use the large proxy army it had built in Ukraine to weaken Russia as a strategic rival, rather than accepting a neutral Ukraine. On the first day after the Russian invasion, when Zelensky responded favourably to start negotiations without preconditions, the US spokesperson rejected peace talks without preconditions as Russia would first have to withdraw all its forces from Ukraine: “Now we see Moscow suggesting that diplomacy take place at the barrel of a gun or as Moscow’s rockets, mortars, artillery target the Ukrainian people. This is not real diplomacy… If President Putin is serious about diplomacy, he knows what he can do. He should immediately stop the bombing campaign against civilians, order the withdrawal of his forces from Ukraine, and indicate very clearly, unambiguously to the world, that Moscow is prepared to de-escalate”.[4] This was a demand for capitulation as the Russian military presence in Ukraine was Russia’s bargaining chip to achieve the objective of restoring Ukraine’s neutrality. Less than a month later, the same US spokesperson was asked if Washington would support Zelensky’s negotiations with Moscow, in which he replied negatively as the conflict was part of a larger struggle: “This is a war that is in many ways bigger than Russia, it’s bigger than Ukraine…. The key point is that there are principles that are at stake here that have universal applicability everywhere, whether in Europe, whether in the Indo-Pacific, anywhere in between”.[5] The US and UK Demand a Long War: Fighting Russia with Ukrainians In late March 2022, Zelensky revealed in an interview with the Economist that “There are those in the West who don’t mind a long war because it would mean exhausting Russia, even if this means the demise of Ukraine and comes at the cost of Ukrainian lives”.[6] The Israeli and Turkish mediators confirmed that Ukraine and Russia were both eager to make a compromise to end the war before the US and the UK intervened to prevent peace from breaking out. Zelensky had contacted former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett to mediate the peace negotiations with Moscow. Bennett noted that Putin was willing to make “huge concessions” if Ukraine would restore its neutrality to end NATO expansion. Zelensky accepted this condition and “both sides very much wanted a ceasefire”. However, Bennett argued that the US and UK then intervened and “blocked” the peace agreement as they favoured a long war. With a powerful Ukrainian military at its disposal, the West rejected the Istanbul peace agreement and there was a “decision by the West to keep striking Putin” instead of pursuing peace.[7] The Turkish negotiators reached the same conclusion: Russia and Ukraine agreed to resolve the conflict by restoring Ukraine’s neutrality, but NATO decided to fight Russia with Ukrainians as a proxy. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu argued some NATO states wanted to extend the war to bleed Russia: “After the talks in Istanbul, we did not think that the war would take this long.… But following the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting, I had the impression that there are those within the NATO member states that want the war to continue—let the war continue and Russia gets weaker. They don’t care much about the situation in Ukraine”.[8] Numan Kurtulmus, the deputy chairman of Erdogan’s political party, confirmed that Zelensky was ready to sign the peace agreement before the US intervened: “This war is not between Russia and Ukraine, it is a war between Russia and the West. By supporting Ukraine, the United States and some countries in Europe are beginning a process of prolonging this war. What we want is an end to this war. Someone is trying not to end the war. The U.S. sees the prolongation of the war as its interest”.[9] Ukrainian Ambassador Oleksandr Chalyi, who participated in peace talks with Russia, confirms Putin “tried everything” to reach a peace agreement and they were able “to find a very real compromise”.[10] Davyd Arakhamia, a Ukrainian parliamentary representative and head of Zelensky’s political party, argued Russia’s key demand was Ukrainian neutrality: “They were ready to end the war if we, like Finland once did, would accept neutrality and pledge not to join NATO. In fact, that was the main point. All the rest are cosmetic and political ‘additions’”.[11] Oleksiy Arestovych, the former advisor of Zelensky, also confirmed that Russia was mainly preoccupied with restoring Ukraine’s neutrality. The main obstacle to peace was thus overcome as Zelensky offered neutrality in the negotiations.[12] The tentative peace agreement was confirmed by Fiona Hill, a former official at the US National Security Council, and Angela Stent, a former National Intelligence Officer for Russia and Eurasia. Hill and Stent penned an article in Foreign Affairsin which they outlined the main terms of the agreement: “Russian and Ukrainian negotiators appeared to have tentatively agreed on the outlines of a negotiated interim settlement: Russia would withdraw to its position on February 23, when it controlled part of the Donbas region and all of Crimea, and in exchange, Ukraine would promise not to seek NATO membership and instead receive security guarantees from a number of countries”.[13] Boris Johnson Goes to Kiev What happened to the Istanbul peace agreement? On 9 April 2022, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson went to Kiev in a rush to sabotage the agreement and cited the killings in Bucha as the excuse. Ukrainian media reported that Johnson came to Kiev with two messages: “The first is that Putin is a war criminal, he should be pressured, not negotiated with. And the second is that even if Ukraine is ready to sign some agreements on guarantees with Putin, they [the UK and US] are not”.[14] In June 2022, Johnson told the G7 and NATO that the solution to the war was “strategic endurance” and “now is not the time to settle and encourage the Ukrainians to settle for a bad peace”.[15] Johnson also published an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal arguing against any negotiations: “The war in Ukraine can end only with Vladimir Putin’s defeat”.[16] Before Boris Johnson’s trip to Kiev, Niall Ferguson had interviewed several American and British leaders, who confirmed that a decision had been made for “the conflict to be extended and thereby bleed Putin” as “the only end game now is the end of Putin regime”.[17] Retired German General Harald Kujat, the former head of the German Bundeswehr and former chairman of the NATO Military Committee, confirmed that Johnson had sabotaged the peace negotiations. Kujat argued: “Ukraine had pledged to renounce NATO membership and not to allow any foreign troops or military installations to be stationed’, while “Russia had apparently agreed to withdraw its forces to the level of February 23”. However, “British Prime Minister Boris Johnson intervened in Kiev on the 9th of April and prevented a signing. His reasoning was that the West was not ready for an end to the war”.[18] According to Kujat, the West demanded a Russian capitulation: “Now the complete withdrawal is repeatedly demanded as a prerequisite for negotiations”.[19] General Kujat explained that this position was due to the US war plans against Russia: “Perhaps one day the question will be asked who did not want to prevent this war… Their declared goal is to weaken Russia politically, economically and militarily to such a degree that they can then turn to their geopolitical rival, the only one capable of endangering their supremacy as a world power: China… No, this war is not about our freedom… Russia wants to prevent its geopolitical rival USA from gaining a strategic superiority that threatens Russia’s security”.[20] What was Ukraine told by the US and the UK? Why did Zelensky make a deal given that he was aware some Western states wanted to use Ukraine to exhaust Russia in a long war - even if it would destroy Ukraine? Zelensky likely received an offer he could not refuse: If Zelensky would pursue peace with Russia, then he would not receive any support from the West and he would predictably face an uprising by the far-right / fascist groups that the US had armed and trained. In contrast, if Zelensky would choose war, then NATO would send all the weapons needed to defeat Russia, NATO would impose crippling sanctions on Russia, and NATO would pressure the international community to isolate Russia. Zelensky could thus achieve what both Napoleon and Hitler had failed to achieve – to defeat Russia. The advisor to Zelensky, Oleksiy Arestovych, explained in 2019 that a major war with Russia was the price for joining NATO. Arestovych predicted that the threat of Ukraine’s accession to NATO would “provoke Russia to launch a large-scale military operation against Ukraine”, and Ukraine could join NATO after defeating Russia. Victory over Russia was assumed to be a certainty as Ukraine would merely be the spearhead of a wider NATO proxy war: “In this conflict, we will be very actively supported by the West—with weapons, equipment, assistance, new sanctions against Russia and the quite possible introduction of a NATO contingent, a no-fly zone etc. We won’t lose, and that’s good”.[21] NATO turned on the propaganda machine to convince its public that a war against Russia was the only path to peace: The Russian invasion was “unprovoked”; Moscow’s objective was to conquer all of Ukraine to restore the Soviet Union; Russia’s withdrawal from Kiev was not a sign of good-will to be reciprocated but a sign of weakness; it was impossible to negotiate with Putin; and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg subsequently asserted that “weapons are the way to peace”. The Western public, indoctrinated with anti-Russian propaganda over decades, believed that NATO was merely a passive third-party seeking to protect Ukraine from the most recent reincarnation of Hitler. Zelensky was assigned the role as new Churchill – bravely fighting to the last Ukrainian rather than accepting a bad peace. The Inevitable Istanbul+ Agreement to End the War The war did not go as expected. Russia built a powerful army and defeated the NATO-built Ukrainian army; sanctions were overcome by reorienting the economy to the East; and instead of being isolated – Russia took a leading role in constructing a multipolar world order. How can the war be brought to an end? The suggestions of a land-for-NATO membership agreement ignores that Russia’s leading objective is not territory but ending NATO expansion as it is deemed to be an existential threat. NATO expansion is the source of the conflict and territorial dispute is the consequence, thus Ukrainian territorial concessions in return for NATO membership is a non-starter. The foundation for any peace agreement must be the Istanbul+ formula: An agreement to restore Ukraine’s neutrality, plus territorial concessions as a consequence of almost 3 years of war. Threatening to expand NATO after the end of the war will merely incentivise Russia to annex the strategic territory from Kharkov to Odessa, and to ensure that only a dysfunctional Ukrainian rump state will remain that is not capable of being used against Russia. This is a cruel fate for the Ukrainian nation and the millions of Ukrainians who have suffered so greatly. It was also a predictable outcome, as Zelensky cautioned in March 2022: “There are those in the West who don't mind a long war because it would mean exhausting Russia, even if this means the demise of Ukraine and comes at the cost of Ukrainian lives”.[22] From that time:

Like I said to Purpletree in the other thread - Imperial logic is primarily for gain whilst security logic is primarily for preservation. The calculus here wasn’t gain but preservation in a zero sum security environment created by the Wests refusal to develop a security architecture that acknowledged red lines and didn't expand NATO towards Russia - up to the last vital country which for them is Ukraine specifically. You say Russia could have bridged East and West - but that assumes the West ever intended to let Russia be a co-equal. Putin did try alignment in the early 2000s like talk of joining NATO. Turkey works as a bridge because it isn't as threatening, whilst Russia’s scale is threatening. Its too big to be ignored yet too big to be allowed fully into the club - unless it sub-ordinates its sovereignty. Russia is big enough to be it's own orbit and not be totally compliant. Didn't Russia try diplomatically reaching out to the West regarding developing a security architecture? Many Western heads themselves warned of NATO expansion, Putin himself made it clear especially in his 2007 Munich speech. Before the invasion even began Russia proposed draft treaty that was ignored. The initial push to Kiev was to force a concession and bring them to the table - but because Kiev resisted upon the backing of the West - Russia went to the next option: if they don’t take your concerns seriously you make them not much of a concern through a war of attrition. Bidens term was radio silent on diplomacy, same with Europe despite the war being on their conflict and them feeling the brunt of the consequence in high energy prices. The Istanbul talks were the closest to a deal that was torped'ed by UK's Boris and the US. A deal they'd probably accept in a heartbeat compared to any today (which I doubt they'll even get to). The EU leaders are praising Trump for opening diplomatic channels to Putin as if they couldn't just do so had they had the spine and not been mired in group think like some ''Putin is Hitler'' cult. Ironically Putin isn't even as hardline as Medveded or others. The issue is liberal universalism can't accept different poles and buffer zones. How has China become more politically aligned to the West? They've economically aligned and developed just like Russia had. Russia has been supplying almost half of EU's energy, it was integrated economically just like China - they traded what they had ( Russia energy, China manufactured goods ). I agree that China has done a way better job than Russia in using that wealth to develop itself - Russia's own corruption has fueled oligarchic profits at the expense of the nation for sure. But that's different to the geopolitics of whats occurring. Whether it's a democracy, communist, socialist or whatever - a rival power is encircling another power, approaching a country with a historically vulnerable corridor - any powerful country will react to this. Just like America is a liberal democracy yet it forced a neutralization of the Cuban missile crisis. The internal shortcomings or political systems of a country is a separate issue to the geopolitics between states and powers. Every country and culture has its own way of doing things - the issue with the West is they morally finger wag a country for not being a copy cat of themselves - despite dealing with countries completely opposite to them (Saudi for example). This is why BRICS is appealing - there's no BRICSm like liberalism that is being shoved down countries throats - just pragmatic partnering on all kinds of projects that retains a level of sovereignty that being part of the Western club doesn't allow for.

The principle is timeless in what it revels: a great power reacts forcefully to a rival power placing a military installation or foothold near its core security perimeter. It doesn’t matter if its 1962 or 2062. The logic of security dilemmas, red lines, and existential threat perception hasn’t changed and will never change unless some paradigm breaking shift in technology or consciousness happens. First you gloss over the nuance of what I’m saying, then you dodge dealing with a hypothetical, then the real example is “outdated”. You’re conveniently avoiding where the questions are leading to broski.

What about the Cuban missile crisis which isn’t a hypothetical. The US acted with force and coercion undermining Cuba’s sovereignty - but its actions weren’t imperial because the intent was preservation of the countries security, not accumulation or domination. This occurred despite them still being a imperial nation, but in this specific context their action was clearly done out of security logic. Had it been Mexico and not Cuba it would have been even more threatening as Mexico and the US share a lengthy border with flat terrain = easy for troops and tanks to roll through and conquer the US from. Just like Ukraine and Russia today. It would be totally understandable yet simultaneously condemnable for the violence and suffering. True, you do need other things. In the same way, you need other things to make something imperial or not - such as intent and context. On the surface - violence, territory capture and civilian death can all occur - but those behaviours alone don’t make a war imperial, just like how the crack down alone doesn’t make Spain dictatorial. Those things can happen under tragic, defensive or reactive circumstances. Like in WW2 against Hitler. There was mass violence. But the allies weren’t trying to gain something (imperial), but more so preserve something (defend) against an imperial expansionist force (Hitler’s Nazi Germany). To name a non-Western example of imperialism for example: what the UAE is doing in Sudan (backing RSF) is imperial as it has no defensive context in which it can exist.

@PurpleTree You can’t decide whether I’m a Chinese, Russian or Indian agent 😂 no rupees, yuan or rubles here. So what about that hypothetical for Ibiza and Spain - would it be an imperial move for Spain to force Ibiza’s neutrality if they wanted Chinese or Russian missiles and there was a historic beef between China / Russia and Spain? Or perhaps in Andorra wedged between France and Spain. Would France or Spain be imperial for stopping this by force? Does Spain cracking down on Catalonians make it a dictatorship because its surface actions mimic that of a dictatorship? You know, it looks like that so must just be that. Guardian: “Speaking to the Guardian at the end of a turbulent week that has seen 14 senior Catalan officials arrested, almost 10m ballot papers seized and thousands more police ordered to the region, Carles Puigdemont said he feared Spain was returning to the repressive practices of the Franco era.”

@BlueOak Russia has paid a cost - but not acting also has a cost that could end up terminal in the end. It’s possible to pay a price today to avoid a heavier one later. Why would they risk possible global backlash for invading, economic damage and sanctions, a million dead, and internal political instability over a country they control 100% by proxy as you commented in another thread tagged below. Russia invaded precisely because it was losing control over Ukraine, not because it had control. Ukraine's pivot toward NATO membership, its rejection of Russian security demands, its military buildup with Western weapons - are all signs of Russia losing influence, not exercising it. The same issues you say plague Russia, plagues the West and more so Europe. Economic fragility, aging demographics etc. Countries that fight wars they see as existential don’t mind for a few hits in GDP. The UK right now has a multi billion pound black hole it’s trying to fill with possible tax hikes and further austerity in the autumn budget. Our capital has tents in the most prestigious areas and meat in Tesco grocery store literally security boxed due to theft. They’ve just put a “mind the grab” strip on the pavement of Oxford street due to theft high phone theft that happens. NHS.. don’t get me started.

You completely gloss over the nuance man. Must be the purple you smokin. Like I said above: If it feels wet is must be water, it can't possibly be sparkling or coke? Spain cracked down on Catalonian separatists, jailed democratically elected officials, stomped on referendums with a jackboot, and silenced political expression. Looks like a dictatorship, so it must be? But we all know it’s not. Because form isn’t function. Imagine if the Chinese just started getting really into House music and fell in love with the mecca of house music - Ibiza. Ibizan's had their own distinct identity to mainland Spain and wanted to to be independent - the Chinese, wanting to protect their new found love for the island started talking of aiding them in this separation and even sporting Chinese missiles and defense infrastructure. Would Spain cracking down on this with force and violence be imperial? Remember the distinction above - imperialism is for gain not preservation of a state. But you'll see Spains use of violence and force and conclude imperial.

Yeah, their *doing* imperialism in form but not in function. Russia is "doing" things that look imperial - violence, territory capture, civilian death. But "doing imperial-looking things" isn't the same as "being imperial" if the driving logic is defensive rather than domination based. That's a surface level application of the word. Like saying ''all liquid is wet'', but is it coconut water or acid? It's like saying ''all violence and suffering is bad'' - just stating the obvious trying to sound morally goody goody but providing no nuance that could help solve the root cause of that suffering and violence. Everyone knows violence is bad. The question is: why did it happen, how do you prevent more of it, and what are the underlying dynamics that created the conditions for it? In this case - a uni-polar hegemon not accepting the red lines of another power or sphere existing in a multi-polar reality. That's why you can still get people on this forum asking why we should care about Russia's red line or sphere, or that we should push back against their sphere - which is what caused the issue to begin with. - Imperial logic seeks domination and accumulation - to get or maintain power, profits and primacy by force. - Defensive logic seeks protection and preservation - to maintain territorial integrity via strategic depth or buffer zones from a rival power - and yes, they use aggression and force also. For example, during the Cuban Missile Crisis - did the US act imperially? On the surface sure. But was the motive imperial in that very situation? No. I can agree that it was done out of security logic even though the US was a imperial power at the time. That scenario it acted within was not for gain but preservation. I can totally understand it from a security lens - and comprehend any state acting in such a way if put in the same position. There has to be an actual defensive logic, where a country's existential safety is put at risk. When it acts upon that risk, it might display the surface level behaviour of an imperial power (violence, force, coercion etc) but it can be understood not to be imperial in intent and instead be comprehended through the strategic lens of security. That's why a super majority of the world detest Israel and it's actions, whilst simultaneously a much of the world seem to understand (not necessarily condone) Russia's actions. Majority of the world (Global South) who've experienced colonialism and imperialism can identify the difference between imperial expansion and a security response to encirclement and encroachment, even if both involve violence. Another question is: who's been coming to who's borders? Which direction of travel has been tippy toeing to who?

Who is saying Russia bombing civilians is okay on this forum? I think your conflating understanding a war (and what caused it) to condoning it. I've never seen Raze justify any such thing or root for Russia. I am rooting against anti-imperialism, not necessarily the aggressive methods used by those resisting it. The same way people can root for the Palestinian cause, not necessarily the methods (October 7th) used in the name of that cause. The moral consistency is in opposing imperialism and all suffering. The inconsistency is in misdiagnosing what is and isn't imperial, and what is the cause of that suffering. The inconsistency is in not understanding the distinction between security logic (state security) and domination logic (imperialism) There are parallel similarities on the surface - such as both involve violence, civilian death and land grabbing. But their are different contexts and motives behind each - security vs domination. It's not double standards as much as it is the same standards being applied to different contexts. A stateless people don't threaten the security of a advanced nuclear state backed by a world super power. Meanwhile, a global nuclear super power that's been naughty for many decades and who you have a cold war history with does threaten your security if it were to be on your doorstep in a historically vulnerable corridor. People can understand the threat perception Russia has - it's comprehensible within a geopolitical security logic. But not the one Israel has - Israel has to magnify it into something its not to justify their behaviour under the banner of security - when it's domination dressed up as security. Russia / Ukraine is a interstate war, Israel / Palestine is a occupying force subjugating any resistance and uprising to that occupation. Russia can live with a state of Ukraine that remains neutral, Israel is denying a Palestinian state existence entirely. Ukrainian civilian death is a tragic byproduct of war, Palestinian civilian death is a horrific result of occupation that is based upon domination. Both horrible. Israeli "security" can only be achieved through Palestinian elimination. Russian security can be achieved through Ukrainian neutrality. Russia says: You can be sovereign but within the limitation that you don't use that sovereignty to threaten our existence. Be like Finland (neutral). Israel says: You can't be sovereign at all. Cleanse yourselves and any remaining Palestinians should exists like Native Americans on reservations. Here you asked about how isn't Russia behaving imperially against Chechnya.

Don't you think your diagnosing something as political when its geopolitical? A country’s form of government doesn’t override its strategic interest and national security. Whether democratic or authoritarian, powerful nations respond to existential threats the same way: by drawing red lines and enforcing them. A democratic United States was ready to risk nuclear war during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Preserving strategic space is dictated by position (geopolitics), not principle (politics, internal or external). Are you saying that if say Russia and Ukraine were both free and democratic - but Ukraine was still integrating a rival superpowers military umbrella - Russia wouldn't react simply because Ukraine and Russia are both politically the same? A rival power was installing strike capabilities within the US immediate sphere, the same is being flirted with today in Ukraine. Ukraine alone isn't a threat - a rival alliance led by a superpower platforming itself in Ukraine is - the same actors who want to maintain global primacy and have think tank papers citing how they want to overextend and contain you.

When nuclear powers are involved, these noble principles about sovereignty and agency become secondary to the primary imperative which is: don’t blow up the planet. It’s better to be 80% sovereign and alive, than 100% sovereign and dead. International laws written in ink don’t somehow erase survival and power dynamics that can end up being settled in blood. Laws and rights are our noble attempt to buffer against might and the laws of the jungle - but they don’t erase or deny that the jungle exists. Likewise, marriage contracts don’t eliminate sexual desire for others. Paper doesn’t negate the primal instincts it seeks to contain. We nurture (through principle) nature (power dynamics) to the best of our ability. Russia didn’t invade Ukraine because they suddenly forgot international law exists. They did it because they calculated that NATO expansion posed a greater existential threat than laws telling them their in wrong for breaking those laws. Jungle logic overrides legal logic when survival is at stake - so best avoid putting it at stake. You don’t bring about security by making another power insecure in crossing their red lines - but by acknowledging them. What should the US do if Russia or China were to build military infrastructure in Mexico? Or UK if Russia or China were to do the same in Scotland? The Cuban missile crisis happened did it not?

Context matters. Powers have red lines, some red lines are more critical than others. Geographic borders aren’‘t just some pretty lines on a map. There are life and death calculations that determine whether one border is strategically more vulnerable than another. Finland is heavily forested terrain. The Baltics are also not ideal terrain to march through in an offensive, only have a population of 6 million, and narrow borders. Ukraine is a massive country with vast flat terrain to create the infrastructure of a forward base from, to stage offensives from and move masses of troops and tanks through. It’s been a historic invasion corridor (Napoleon, Hitler), has a population of 40 million, and a lengthy border almost 7 times that of Estonia. Estonia being part of a NATO is a strategic mosquito bite, Ukraine doing so is strategic kneecapping.

You too papi. Looks like we gonna chop up some more though:

Hawkish much? We’ve evolved from neocons to Eurocons. The US and the West aren’t entitled to be everywhere and anywhere on this planet. Many places on the planet are still corrupt - by your moral crusader logic the West should go develop those regions in Africa, Latin America and Asia too. Sounds like colonialism, but maybe not if it’s consensual. Let’s go liberate Pakistan as it’s been notoriously called a failed state (multiplied IMF bailouts) full of corruption too. That isn’t what real geopolitics is - that’s the law of the jungle which you ironically advocate for whilst moralising as if you don’t. You’re basically making a case for imperialism without realising it. Putting countries back into the Stone Age is a Stone Age mindset unfit for the modern world - your developed and actualised though rite? You start by asking why should you care about buffer states? Then finish your comment asking what is a mature way to exist (in a multipolar world) lol. Your entire emotional temper tantrum is full of holes I could fill a book with. The West has been invested in Ukraine for decades and corruption still remains. This isn’t magically the cause of Russia being its neighbour. Zelensky just attempted undermining anti-corruption agencies, prompting large wartime protests. He only U-turned after public and Western backlash. Imagine Western funds from taxpayers being sent if he hadn’t - the already cratering credibility of Western politicians would be shotgunned. Your entire worldview assumes the West as the naturally benevolent unipolar hegemon that’s entitled to the entire global sphere as its sphere of influence and imperialism - whilst denying the legitimate security concerns or existence of any other sphere possibly existing. Western unipolar global dominance is an aberration in history - mere blip on the timeline. Go fix your historical amnesia and ignorance - because this aberration is now ending, and the Western arrogance, entitlement and supremacist attitude will be adjusted along with it.