zazen

3 good shorts

https://x.com/whitehouse/status/1918502592335724809?s=46&t=DuLUbFRQFGpB8oo7PwRglQ How is this real..pinch me I think MAGA or Trumpism is going to discredit itself. Even an ally like Japan coming out with such a statement is significant. https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japans-us-treasury-holdings-among-tools-trade-talks-finance-minister-kato-says-2025-05-01/

I think a state can operate and orient at a different level (''stage'') than it's society. Especially if the political structure is designed to vet and bring the best of society to those positions of leadership and governance. That doesn’t mean the society lacks those values altogether - they simply don't dominate peoples day to day lives and are peripheral rather than central. A society recovering from poverty and a ''century of humiliation'' are naturally inclined to prioritize stability (blue) and economic opportunity (orange). Just because something isn't prioritized doesn’t mean it isn’t valued. The way Wilber speaks of the values of green is as if other societies are alien to these values. These values only ''came online'' lol. As an example, when I was visiting a friend in Vietnam and went hiking - local Vietnamese very much cared about ecology and the community affects of the Mekong River being dried up due to China using those resources. Obviously they will care more for where their next meal is coming from due to that being a more immediate demand. Green values have universal appeal because these are human values, and we are more similar than different. They just manifest differently and to a different extent in each society depending on material conditions, geography, cultural and moral foundations. Perhaps the flaw in Spiral Dynamic interpretations is in assuming Green must look a certain way - based on Western aesthetics and concerns - but every society has different histories, peculiarities and concerns. Which is why I wrote they can represent and even achieve green values (ecological/social harmony, human well being) , just not ''liberal - Western'' green values (radical relativism, identity politics, de-construction). Liberal green gets conflated with universal green. And societies lacking any liberal manifestations of green are dismissed as lacking development. A lot of Green seems to be treating the excesses of the previous value sets in the other stages. But the issue is that the green prescription the West is undergoing, uses that prescription as THE definition for green itself, and for others as well. It takes its particular green prescription for a universal green definition. The West came off the back off colonialism, racial stratification and hyper individualism from the Enlightenment. Green values manifest as identity politics, radical relativism and a polarized pluralism - a civilizational therapy session to heal those past wounds. Other countries have different wounds so will have a different therapy. How Green manifests across the world generally tracks the historic divide between the colonialists and the colonized. A lot of these countries are lumped into the term ''Global South'' and in most of these countries colonialism was suffered, not imposed, and the individual wasn't elevated to god-hood status through Enlightenment philosophy. Their healing is less about recovering from self-created internal chaos and more about restoring continuity (before being interrupted by outside forces). They want sovereignty (BRICS and de-dollarization) dignity (not to be bullied by the West), and internal coherence (which is why they don't get hard ons for Democracy). Green will show up as collective restoration, not self-fragmentation through de-constructionism. The Western manifestation of Green is largely about breaking down the systems that broke others - and that broke themselves in the process due to its excesses. The imperial core was hollowed (culturally, spiritually, economically) just as much as the imperial periphery (other nations) were destroyed and disrupted of their own trajectory. Civilizations grow forward according to the shape of their roots. Not every tree grows the same way, even under the same sun. China doesn't require identity politics when its people largely share one deep rooted identity (Han). They also don't require excessive fragmented pluralism and challenges to hierarchy and authority when they are largely cohesive and have been for 5'000 years - with much of Confucian influence making up their civilizational DNA. The West are taking the green prescription for their particular society, as THE universal definition of green, that other societies should aspire to. When those countries fail to look identical, which is highly improbable, they are thought to be behind or incapable. But if (maybe when) China surpasses the West in poverty elimination, ecological balance, technological innovation, social stability, and global influence - and does so without liberal identity politics, relativism, or the constant need to deconstruct itself - will we still say it's not “Green” or “developed”? If so, then that reveals more about our ideological biases than about China’s development. I don't think one green is better than another, they just evolve differently from different soils. Perhaps the best grass is Green on both sides - it just grows in different gardens.

@NewKidOnTheBlock True, had me thinking I’m wiser than all of ya’ll on this forum including Leo’s alien consciousness. Jokes aside, it can be dangerous if it gets certain people thinking they’re “right”. It’s like being a celebrity with yes men who solidify your delusions.

New BBC documentary from Louis Theroux . For those outside of the UK: If it disappears Hassans got it covered:

Who knows these days..

I think Spiral Dynamics can start to choke on its own framework when used too rigidly. The map is not the territory - and that territory we call life is highly complex and layered. Doesn’t Wilber present the values of each stage as if they’re locked in some historical sequence? Like we’re on a civilisational staircase. Perhaps it’s directionally correct that there are dominant paradigms (stages) but that doesn't mean exclusive access to values within those paradigms, and exclusively at certain time periods in history. For example, thinking that green values like compassion and equality didn't exist before the 1960's, or that rationality and inquiry didn't come ''online'' (as Wilber says it) till the enlightenment era. This is very western centric framing and historically myopic to non-Western civilisations that did exhibit such values before. Wilber frames these developments as “beginnings” that suddenly come online, as if they were entirely absent before certain points in time. That framing makes it seem as though development flows outwards from Europe - as if the world evolves according to the West’s timeline, with the West naturally leading the way. It presents Spiral Dynamics as if it spirals around a distinctly Western arc of history. Development seems to be more contextual and fractal, rather than universal and linear. In reality, it doesn’t seem to unfold like a baton passed down a historical relay race. Can’t it emerge in parallel pockets across different times and places? After all, it is spiral, not ladder dynamics - which means values can and do exist simultaneously, not sequentially in linear progression. This also means we don’t have to identify with any one “stage”. For example, thinking we have to hustle first in our orange phase before we care about the environment by choosing a EV over a diesel. Or thinking we can’t tap into red rage when being burgled because we fear flirting with warrior energy is toxic masculinity and will ruin that mornings turquoise meditation session. Life isn't like picking a Power Ranger colour to operate as. The problem with Spiral Dynamics trying to map entire political systems to one color - is that its treating structure as proof of consciousness level. For example, Western democracies are assumed to be Green or Yellow because they’re pluralistic, but often function in service of elite Orange capitalists. Conversely, China is dismissed as “Blue” because it has a one-party system, despite the fact that it produces outcomes aligned with Green (social up-liftment, green investment) and Yellow (systems thinking, long-term planning). Defining China’s governmental centre of gravity as blue because its centralized oversimplifies it. It can be argued that’s it’s more like a Yellow-led integration of Blue governance, done with Orange execution, to produce Green outcomes. - Confucianism provides the ethical spine (BLUE): order, hierarchy, duty, social responsibility. - Capitalism with Chinese characteristics unleashes achievement, productivity, and scientific innovation (ORANGE). - Collective well being, harmony, poverty elimination, ecological restoration and sustainable energy are clearly (GREEN) values, just not liberal Green values. Western goggled Spiral Dynamics often mistakes stylistic differences for the absence of values. Just because China doesn’t wear Green on its sleeve or wave the pride flag, doesn’t mean it’s not practicing Green. It’s largely achieving Green results despite the virtue signalling of Green rhetoric common in the West. This framing confuses progress with packaging, and mistakes Western aesthetics for higher development. If we’ve been steeped in liberal gravy like a dunkin donut our whole life, it’s natural to misread China’s use of Blue tactics as proof of a Blue ethos. But what looks like Blue isn’t always Blue in spirit - it can be Yellow in function, using Blue strategically to hold a complex system together that governs over a billion people. What looks regressive from one lens may be deeply adaptive from another. The problem is, it doesn’t look like Yellow in Western terms - it violates the Green moral aesthetic of expressive freedom and pluralism, even while achieving Green level goals like ecological balance and collective welfare.

Did Democracy ever begin the way we think and define it? Also brilliant:

Israel and the US are themselves rogue states. Which nation on earth has dropped not one but two atomic bombs on an already defeated people, and has continued to be at war around the world every day of its existence? One of these nations still exists as settler colonial apartheid state ethnically cleansing the people it occupies today. These are psychotic nations that shouldn’t have the power they do, due to the abuse of it.

I wonder that too amigo.. https://media.un.org/photo/en/asset/oun7/oun71088444 ”The General Assembly votes on a draft resolution titled "International Day of Peaceful Coexistence" during the 58th plenary meeting of the General Assembly. The representative of the United States again said that his delegation will vote no, expressing concern that the resolution "advances a programme of soft global governance that is inconsistent with US sovereignty". The Assembly adopted the resolution by a recorded vote of 162 in favour to 3 against (Argentina, Israel, United States), with 2 abstentions (Paraguay, Peru).”

Interesting vid about Chinas recent rise in soft power

''These countries are calling us up, kissing my ass'' ''We borrow money from Chinese peasants, to buy the things those Chinese peasants make'' ''I can tell the rest of the world, I'm not sure whether it's the prime minister or the economic minister in Spain made some comments this morning: ''Oh, well, maybe we should align ourselves more with China.'' That would be cutting your own throat. ''We can probably reach a deal with with our allies, with the other countries that have been long term, they've been good military allies, not perfect economic allies. And then we can approach China as a group.'' China's comments: - Spanish PM in China right now: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/pedro-sanchez-china-spain-donald-trump-europe-b2731391.html - EU China Summit planned for July: https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-leaders-plan-beijing-trip-july-summit-with-chinas-xi-scmp-reports-2025-04-10/ - EU and UAE launching free trade talks: https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-uae-agree-launch-free-trade-talks-2025-04-10/ - EU China looking to set a minimum price for Chinese EV's: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/eu-china-start-talks-lifting-eu-tariffs-chinese-electric-vehicles-handelsblatt-2025-04-10/ Must be 5D Chess. A lot of people think Trump has no plan, but don't think his team don't. Trumps just there for the lights and cameras to inflate his ego. Stephan Miran literally laid it out - its just that its failing. The idea that you can intimidate and coerce your ''allies'' and other nations into concessions, to subsidize your empire, whilst mocking them is just back ass stupid. His final point was literally ''Fifth, they could simply write checks to Treasury that help us finance global public goods.'' https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/04/cea-chairman-steve-miran-hudson-institute-event-remarks/ That's basically buying US gov debt, to reduce rates, so that they can continue to finance their empire on the cheap and meet their towering debt obligations due to roll this year - to the tune of trillions. That money of course won't actually go into public investment, welfare or infrastructure at the benefit of the everyday citizen. They want to set up a tributary architecture of empire. But the world says no. The US thinks in its arrogance, that it can imperially bully the world as it did. No more. Fuck America Inc (the empire), not the American people.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-12/trump-exempts-phones-computers-chips-from-reciprocal-tariffs Blinked first. Balls in Chinas court now - they could just keep the tariffs they have in place and this would actually widen the trade deficit as the US exports are totally cut off whilst only a minority of Chinas would be. Art of the deal. Commented this just over a month ago. Like I said in the end, Trump/US don't hold the cards. All these MAGA boys writing FAFO as Trump and his camp were bullying the world, fucked around, and found out. Crusader Hegseth should know the defeat isn’t just militarily, but also economically, diplomatically and morally.

Chamath is a fool to question how bonds can affect policy. The mental gymnastics his otherwise smart but unwise brain goes to, to rationalise the admins actions. Every policy runs through the bottleneck of money. Even non-spending policies have economic consequences. The bond market determines the cost of funding every policy (infrastructure, war etc). Whether these yield hikes are here to stay or are just a short term bounce and bound to eventually drop - the point is debt is being rolled over at those higher rates now or soon. And that affects everything: federal debt financing, corporate refinancing and real estate.

Brilliant. Love how you come in with spot on summaries and bounce bro haha. Wrote the following in another thread but it fits here well: Rock, paper, scissors BRICS is building new guardrails. It's not there yet, but the process is accelerating. The more chaotic the old system becomes, the faster alternatives gain legitimacy. MAGA is right to sense that a nation that doesn’t build is vulnerable. A paper-based economy that outsources production is not just economically hollow - but is a national security risk. You can only buy a future you're not building for so long - which is a privilege the US has enjoyed through its status as global reserve. But that privilege is flammable. Paper can't out-build China’s scissors or out-secure the rock-rich alliances forming outside the US orbit. Paper’s only power lies in its ability to capture and coordinate tangible value - not to create it. It’s an intangible construct, made real and assigned value only by trust, consensus, and belief. And Washington knows this. It’s not about TikTok. It’s about the tick-tock of the debt clock. You can only buy the future you should have been building - so long as the paper you’re using is trusted. That trust is only sustained if it’s backed by industry (scissors) and resources (rock). Once those fade, power becomes illusion. All great civilizations are built - not bought. They begin with land (rock - resources) and labor (scissors - skills), then scale with trade and finance (paper - currency). Their buying power is only as strong as their built foundation. But when that foundation is financialized - when the scissors rust (industry and skills atrophy) and the rock is sold off (for climate goals or to the point you become dependent) - the paper begins to weaken. And once belief in that paper erodes, it doesn’t just fold - but burns. If paper isn't trustable, it's combustible. And when it’s up against a bloc like BRICS+, which is amassing both rock and scissors, we should remember: rock (stone) and scissors (flint) create fire - and no origami can withstand that. Paper’s purpose is to amplify rock and scissors - to invest and innovate, not trade and speculate. Paper can coordinate and amplify raw potential into realized value. But in a financialized economy, paper breaks that covenant and begins serving only itself. What remains is a fragile illusion: a paper tiger made of origami. The nationalist (MAGA) oriented elite get this and want to resolve it (though unwisely as is currently playing out). The trans-nationalist (globalist) elite get this but don't care for it as much, because they have new markets and regions to suck lifeblood from. There is a tension between elite factions fighting this out. What the nationalist elite are trying to do is carve out a fortified bloc of client states, where the illusion of paper power still holds, enforced through debt, dependency, and defense pacts. Inside that bubble, the dollar will remain a reserve currency - not globally, but within a curated orbit, in a diminished global role. In this model, the US shares the burden of empire in the form of tribute and concessions, while preserving its reserve privileges. By having allies peg their currencies to the dollar, it can artificially lower the dollar’s value - boosting export competitiveness and enabling re-industrialization of critical sectors. That’s how it may attempt to resolve the Triffin dilemma - by flipping the logic: turning reserve currency status into a mechanism to rebuild domestic industry. A great video looking at the macro of all this.

@Breakingthewall @WikiRando Both nice comments. You bro's are right in intuiting the prevailing issue at hand. BRICS is building new guardrails. It's not there yet, but the process is accelerating. The more chaotic the old system becomes, the faster alternatives gain legitimacy. MAGA is right to sense that a nation that doesn’t build is vulnerable. A paper-based economy that outsources production is not just economically hollow - but is a national security risk. You can only buy a future you're not building for so long - which is a privilege the US has enjoyed through its status as global reserve. But that privilege is flammable. Paper can't out-build China’s scissors or out-secure the rock-rich alliances forming outside the US orbit. Paper’s only power lies in its ability to capture and coordinate tangible value - not to create it. It’s an intangible construct, made real and assigned value only by trust, consensus, and belief. And Washington knows this. It’s not about TikTok. It’s about the tick-tock of the debt clock. You can only buy the future you should have been building - so long as the paper you’re using is trusted. That trust is only sustained if it’s backed by industry (scissors) and resources (rock). Once those fade, power becomes illusion. All great civilizations are built - not bought. They begin with land (rock - resources) and labor (scissors - skills), then scale with trade and finance (paper - currency). Their buying power is only as strong as their built foundation. But when that foundation is financialized - when the scissors rust (industry and skills atrophy) and the rock is sold off (for climate goals or to the point you become dependent) - the paper begins to weaken. And once belief in that paper erodes, it doesn’t just fold - but burns. If paper isn't trustable, it's combustible. And when it’s up against a bloc like BRICS+, which is amassing both rock and scissors, we should remember: rock (stone) and scissors (flint) create fire - and no origami can withstand that. Paper’s purpose is to amplify rock and scissors - to invest and innovate, not trade and speculate. Paper can coordinate and amplify raw potential into realized value. But in a financialized economy, paper breaks that covenant and begins serving only itself. What remains is a fragile illusion: a paper tiger made of origami. The nationalist (MAGA) oriented elite get this and want to resolve it (though unwisely as is currently playing out). The trans-nationalist (globalist) elite get this but don't care for it as much, because they have new markets and regions to suck lifeblood from. There is a tension between elite factions fighting this out. What the nationalist elite are trying to do is carve out a fortified bloc of client states, where the illusion of paper power still holds, enforced through debt, dependency, and defense pacts. Inside that bubble, the dollar will remain a reserve currency - not globally, but within a curated orbit, in a diminished global role. In this model, the US shares the burden of empire in the form of tribute and concessions, while preserving its reserve privileges. By having allies peg their currencies to the dollar, it can artificially lower the dollar’s value - boosting export competitiveness and enabling re-industrialization of critical sectors. That’s how it may attempt to resolve the Triffin dilemma - by flipping the logic: turning reserve currency status into a mechanism to rebuild domestic industry.

That's what Trump is hoping to do. That’s why they did a blanket tariff on everyone - to gain leverage in forcing countries to pick a side and isolate China. If China alone gets tariffed they just bypass those through middle men countries as like Vietnam etc. The US would like to choke off those options. Trump and his camp miscalculated. Hence the pause - don't let them tell you this is a win. Bloomberg - ''Scott Bessent, the man who helped George Soros break the Bank of England in 1992, can also sow chaos at the People's Bank of China.'' Lol, all I saw was finance bro's crying about something breaking in the bond market. Hence, the much needed pause to re-assess their ''containment'' strategy. https://www.ft.com/content/15547313-06ed-4de8-92f2-ca554aee698f ''The market is rapidly de-dollarizing. It is remarkable that international dollar funding markets and cross-currency basis remains well behaved. In a typical crisis environment the market would be hoarding dollar liquidity to secure funding for its underlying US asset base. This dollar imbalance is what ultimately results in a triggering of the Fed swap lines. Dynamics here seem to be very different: the market has lost faith in US assets, so that instead of closing the asset-liability mismatch by hoarding dollar liquidity it is actively selling down the US assets themselves. We wrote a few weeks ago that US administration policy is encouraging a trend towards de-dollarization to safeguard international investors from a weaponization of dollar liquidity. We are now seeing this play out in real-time at a faster pace than even we would have anticipated. It remains to be seen how orderly this process can remain. A credit event in the global financial system that threatens the provision of short-term dollar liquidity is the point of greatest vulnerability which would turn dollar dynamics more positive.'' - George Saravelos, global head of FX research at Deutsche Bank

Correct. Also EU and China co-ordinating: https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-pencils-in-china-summit-for-july/ I see MAGA on X spinning this as a “Art of the deal” and laughing smugly at the world. What deal? A higher bond yield making everything more expensive, the world seeing the US as a unreliable bully who can tear up free trade agreements with even its allies and neighbours.. I believe there is a method to the madness, yet the method is a mad one drunk on exceptionalism and arrogance. Trump says he’s dropped universal tariffs to 10% to “reward” the world for not retaliating - but then singles out China who did. Never mind that the EU and Canada was retaliating - as that wouldn’t fit the narrative and optics of attempting to isolate China. Let’s keep in mind that EU+China+Canada represent almost half of US trade - which is now in question. But this is a win according to MAGA. What they’re trying to do is a hard de-coupling with China, and coerce others to do the same. Sure there’s insider trading that will make them money along the way - but that is a distraction from the larger game at play. Trading happens regardless and finance bros are riding whatever wave they catch. This is gross though: https://x.com/megatron_ron/status/1910238378064257143?s=46&t=DuLUbFRQFGpB8oo7PwRglQ They want globalization to continue, despite their rhetoric against it. They just want China to be ejected from that globalization. They also want others to share the burden of empire, that benefits them at the expense of others. The table is set - this 90 day pause is where negotiations will take place to impose this new order. One of the concessions expected: https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-says-eu-must-buy-350b-of-us-energy-to-get-tariff-relief/ This is what they mean by burden sharing and tariff relief: They want to vassalize their “partners” even more - hopefully with Vaseline so the humiliation ritual doesn’t hurt as much to those that bend. They want the benefits of empire without the downsides. And the world to subsidize it with tribute. They’re selling America Inc, like a business. The large consumer market are the goods (trade), their security umbrella is the service (SaaS - security as a service) The US empire is about to FAFO how hot the flaming dragons flames are. Good to add some humour to lighten the mood in these times 😂

@k0ver lol there’s prob a inauguration of Trump at MT Rushmore in the works too. 0 tariffs aren’t that’s all on the menu either.

Guess we're all being exploited by our toilets - as we export shit to them daily without any return. This whole tariff to correct trade deficits discourse has exposed a real deficit in common sense. Even if no tariffs existed between a rich country which can consume, and a poor country that doesn't have the wealth to - a deficit will remain. The richer country is always going to buy more from the poorer one, than the poorer one can buy from the rich one. Wealth creates consumption power that poor nations simply can't match.

@Breakingthewall@WikiRando MAGA say they would prefer a surplus over a deficit, but would also love to have the dollar remain the global reserve currency. Being the world’s reserve currency means the rest of the world needs dollars - which means the US has to export dollars, usually by importing more than it exports. That’s why the US runs chronic trade deficits (even has the privilege to be able to do so) - due to dollar dominance. MAGA are correct that being solely a consumer rather than producer isn’t healthy long term - lack of resilience, anti-fragile. There has to be a balance between being the worlds consumer and producer - a buyer and a builder. Something China has done well. China builds so it can buy. America buys so it can dominate - and forgot how to build along the way. China can balance being a builder and a buyer because it doesn’t have the global reserve currency - and it doesn’t want the structural obligations that come with it - that structurally undermine it from that balancing act. Dollar dominance is real, but narrow. It matters most in the financialized layer of the global economy as WikiRando had laid out some pages back - capital markets, cross-border settlements, central bank reserves, and commodity pricing. But real world trade and national strategies are already de-dollarizing. The US acting how it is, and weaponizing its core strength, only hastens that trend. The dollar still wears the crown, but its throne is financialized and fragile. The world is trading less in dollars, but still financing in dollars. That gap is exactly where the future multipolar system is being born. The dollar will remain important without being supreme. Just like Britain’s pound after World War II - relevant, but no longer ruling the world. There won’t be a formal announcement either as it's not black and white. It's a slow erosion of it's supremacy, but not of its importance, owing to the size of the US's economy and fundamentals. MAGA want the benefits of nationalism and the privileges of empire - but without paying the costs of either: they want to offload the costs of empire onto allies, while rebuilding domestic capacity, without surrendering reserve status. Triffin’s Dilemma = The reserve currency issuer must sacrifice domestic industry to supply the world with money. To lead globally, you must sacrifice domestically. To rebuild domestically, you must sacrifice global leadership. MAGA wants to reverse domestic decline, but also keep the reserve status. To do both is structurally contradictory.

It was eye opening for me too.The US is using the assumption of its dollar dominance to inflict damage on China. Dollar dominance is real, but not immortal. It rests on trust, and that trust is tethered to US Treasuries. But the US continues to play empire while torching its own credibility, its undermining its core advantage. The whole notion of lowering rates has backfired and pressure is upon UST. The whole re-industrialization and end of globalization rhetoric is a deflection - they want to maintain a system that favours them the way globalization did. They just can’t have rising powers within it. They want to purge their strongest rival from globalization - and offer developing countries the chance to become China 2.0 but with total loyalty to themselves. At best, they’ll re-industrialize critical industries for national security, but let their satellites do the lower end industry to continue subsidising the privileged American lifestyle which exchanges paper for cheap goods. So far that’s my read on the situation, but it’s evolving.