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@Leo Gura Also true. @AION Then why did you mention 35K? Is that a special number for some reason? What are you looking at? The market doesn’t owe you anything. If you can’t recognize when an asset enters the value zone, when it becomes cheap, then you don’t deserve the rewards when it eventually explodes to the upside. That’s why a DCA strategy is often so popular. You never really know when the bottom is in, so instead of trying to guess it and thinking you’re going to go all-in at a specific price, you simply DCA every month, regardless of the price. And you start doing that not at the top, but when the price has dropped enough for it to make sense.

Bears sound smart, Bulls make money.

@AION One example: the last three bull runs lasted 1064-1071 days. So, almost the exact same length of time (within 1 week). The last two bear markets lasted around 365 days. This one, if it bottoms in early October, will also have lasted around 365 days. If it's already bottomed, then that was 268 days, which is something that has never happened before (a short bear market), but then again, at some point this pattern has to break, right? Public perception? Well, BTC becomes cheaper and cheaper in people’s eyes the more it drops, especially as it gets closer to that 1-year mark of the bear market.

@AION I was calling for 40K to happen in early October this year and had been bearish since last October, when BTC topped. But whats happening now, with this BTC rally above 80K has changed things. I’ve stopped being bearish and think the bottom is in. Nothing is 100%. There can always be a black swan event that fucks everything up. But investing is a game of probabilities, and I give it 80% that the bottom is in. It still has to confirm that the bear market is over by making a higher high on the weekly, but if you’re waiting for confirmation, you will always be late to the party. HF waiting for 35k BTC.

What if gold goes up to like 7K before that happens, and then drops 30%? It would still be higher than it is right now. Things can stay stupid longer than you can fathom, and there’s always a bull market somewhere.

@something_else Depends on what “being wrong” looks like exactly. There are many levels to that, I guess. One is underperformance, another is slowly going to zero, and so on. Anyway, it’s interesting to see the opinions of people outside the crypto bubble. Spending so much time on X and watching crypto YouTube can make you blind to the fact that you’re only listening to people who are in the bubble with you, which can make you overlook certain things. So in general, crypto is still perceived very negatively by most people, and rightfully so, because of all the rugs and extraction that have happened. But on the other hand, it also makes me realize that we might still be early, because so few people have any knowledge of or interest in it, or simply don’t get it. Maybe we’re not that late yet.

@something_else BTC is only 17 years old. You can’t ask for a more reliable pattern. For me, BTC = less risk, or low risk, and alts are on the other side of the spectrum. Other assets aren’t of interest to me at the moment because I think there’s an enormous opportunity in crypto right now, and it’s going to reprice violently to the upside. Time will show whether I was right or not, and I have a feeling it will be the same as always: ‘You couldn’t have known. You just gambled and got lucky.’”

@something_else Not 3. There have been at least 4 market cycles (4 halvings), not counting what happened from 2009 to like 2012, The historical drawdowns have been 93%, then 87%, then 84%, then 77.5%, and now 54% in 2026. At the lows, BTC has always been doubted and even declared dead. But time and time again, it has shown its resilience and recovered to new ATHs. That’s why I wouldn’t bet against BTC. Also, I might be more aggressive regarding my goals when it comes to investing. I’m not satisfied with 15–20% per year. I dont just want to preserve my capital and slowly grow it, only to become wealthy when I’m 55 or 65. If thats what you want to do, thats perfectly fine. And for most people, it’s not a bad strategy. Most people don’t even invest, so if you’re making 15–20% per year, you’re already a winner in a sense. My goal is to become financially free before I turn 40, or in my early 40s at the latest (not from 0, I’m already like 70% there). Also, keep in mind that conviction doesn’t require certainty. It requires believing strongly enough to act despite uncertainty.

@something_else So any investment that’s not super safe and predictable is in your opinion gambling? BTC is very volatile compared to other things, especially when it was a smaller asset. But if you study previous cycles and drawdowns, you can pretty much “know” what to expect in the next one. If there were suddenly some kind of fundamental issue with BTC, then I wouldn’t hesitate to reconsider things. But with BTC, nothing has ever fundamentally changed. Just because the price drops a lot doesn’t mean something is now broken. The reason I lost 90% was because I had bought altcoins with the BTC I had. They went up way more than BTC, but they also crashed WAY more when BTC dropped to 3K in 2018. With alts, you’re definitely gambling. I wouldn’t say the same for BTC imo. It’s riskier not to own any. To you, buying things after they’ve dropped 60%, 70%, 80%, or more might seem like gambling, but to me that has always been the best opportunity to make money. Maybe it’s because you don’t believe in BTC, or maybe you’re not aware of how much money is being printed all the fucking time. What one calls gambling, another calls conviction. I still stand by this.

@something_else I first invested in BTC in August 2017 at 4K. By the end of December (early January), I had 4x’d my portfolio in unrealized gains. That was probably the craziest bull market ever. Eventually, I lost 90% of it by not selling anything, partly because of inexperience and because it was my first crypto cycle. In the second cycle (2018–2021), I barely invested any new money, thinking my altcoins would recover and that I’d make all the money back. Some of them did recover, but most didnt, so I failed my second crypto cycle as well. That was also when I got into spirituality, so I had less motivation to make money and pursue all this material stuff. In 2022, I was like, “Enough is enough. If I don’t make it in this next cycle, I won’t be able to forgive myself.” So I locked in, got a job, and worked for two years, investing 80% of my salary every month into BTC and Solana at the lows. This time, I didn’t fuck it up. I made tons of profit, largely thanks to Solana going from 8usd to almost 300usd, and now Im well positioned for the next cycle. Let’s just say Im almost retired because of it. The reason I had so much conviction is that I was staring at the screens all the time, studying the charts, listening to tons of people talk about investing and crypto, and being on X every single day, following the right people. Once you’ve done all that, there’s no doubt in your mind that BTC will always recover in the next cycle, no matter how hopeless it looks. But yeah, it takes a lot of effort and time to figure out which altcoins to invest in, because if you don’t, you'll get screwed. Every consecutive cycle gets harder and harder to make it (BTC ain't 4k anymore haha).

@something_else From your perspective, it's gambling. From mine, conviction. @Leo Gura You have no idea what Bitcoin will do next month, but you can look at the previous bear markets and see when it becomes a good investment again.

@Leo Gura You can predict the future in the sense that you say: fiat will lose value, hard assets will go up. But you can't predict what a certain asset will do exactly, regarding time and price.

I derisked by selling into fiat near the top. I could have bought XAUT in November if I had known it was available on that same exchange before this gold bull market started. I would have made way more money. I think investing in gold and other safer “things” makes sense when you’ve already made it big and just want to preserve your capital. I’m at a point where taking the risk with crypto still makes more sense for me. I have so much experience with it that, by itself, it gives me an edge in trading/investing in crypto. I don't have nearly as much experience with other markets. When you're at that point, it feels like money is just lying there on the floor waiting to be picked up.

@LordFall I'm 100% in crypto. Sold at 107k, rebought near the lows. I risked it all years ago and got rewarded massively.

@LordFall Depends on how you do it. You can DCA into BTC at the lows, but chasing with leverage is dangerous. Buying spot at these levels is not nearly as dangerous, especially if you make sure that if it drops, you improve your average buy price. What’s also dangerous is not buying anything because you think it will go lower (or because it “has” to go lower), only to stay sidelined and eventually feel FOMO, which can lead to bad decisions.