Raze

The closest poll listed for Truman to this date says 40 approval 44 disproval, your link shows Biden at 38 approval 56 disapproval. More importantly Truman’s approval increased significantly before the election, no indication that’ll happen for Biden. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020 The link I sent you which I am sending here again showed the average of polls pre 2020 election had Biden winning +7, the actual result was he won +4, so they overestimated Biden in 2020, not Trump. Elections that happened 40 years ago and in completely different scenarios are not relevant. What matters is recent polling and long term trends, both do not favor Biden. Your own pasted paragraph here points out how this was a rare event caused by a bad debate performance by Dukakis. The only similarity here is Biden also had a bad debate performance, so again not helping your argument.

He said his system was based on the popular vote but Trump didn’t win the popular vote. https://thepostrider.com/allan-lichtman-is-famous-for-correctly-predicting-the-2016-election-the-problem-he-didnt/ Nothing about his system is based on data, just a subjective definition of what qualifies as keys and missing the possibility of important information like when most people don’t think the candidates brain is working. The choice is lose to Trump badly with Biden, probably still lose but with better odds with Kamala, or probably win with someone else.

https://web.archive.org/web/20201007203743/http://vvhs.vviewisd.net/ourpages/auto/2013/3/20/58198633/keys to the white house.doc

The Keys are too subjective, you can just contort the argument to say they fulfill whoever wins or loses.

This makes no sense, Biden fails 9 of Alan’s keys and he says Biden would only win if 5 are false.

No, his approval was 70% prior to the 1948 election. https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/harry-s-truman-public-approval Polls actually overestimated how well Biden would do in 2020. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020 The polling average slightly underestimated Republicans in 2022 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html I don’t understand what polls were off in 2023 and 2024 as the election hasn’t happened yet

That’s not true, in both prior elections the dem candidate had a lead by this point that shrunk as we got closer.

No President with a job approval as low as Biden has ever won an election

Why is Biden losing in most polls then?

Try break through difficult emotions by Shinzen young

it can be more or less common depending on culture, China throughout its history traded with many countries but didn’t intervene or colonize nearly as much Many scientists argue malaria only really took off in Africa when they transitioned from hunter gatherer societies to farm societies Fast development also lead to Terrorism, huge civil wars, manufactured famines, genocide, and all sorts of plagues of modernity like loneliness and nihilism

I said interventionism, not trade. Slow development isn’t all bad. One reason why Africa still has hunter gatherer societies even today while Europe doesn’t is because European countries hunted theirs to extinction.

Again, if they prioritized rescuing the hostages above all else they would have at least attempted to negotiate a full hostage deal which could rescue all the hostages instantly. Clearly they aren’t unable to as they negotiated a partial one and got half the hostages back. The bombing campaign after nearly a year rescued just 7 and killed at least 3-9. That’s not a efficient way to rescue people in this scenario.

They would be more functional without a history of constant western interventionism

How is going forward with a candidate who is losing in polls and has a dementia episode every interview “mature” and “correct”? It is literally running towards defeat.

If Israel agreed to do the hostage deal and Hamas reneged, Israel can claim hamas didn’t follow through and go to war but this time with less backlash. Israel did not try any other option, they just went to war.

Is something happening to this thread? Why do posts keep getting removed

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7OZebLs6v7o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDl3Tx4qZAY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gANvvAD-3eM https://www.girlschase.com/how-to-text-a-girl https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BuvK9BjSO6o

Most people take years to change their mind on deeply held beliefs.

The problem with banning certain views is it ends the chance for them to change their mind. I’ve seen people in this forum change their minds and deradicalize through dialogue. Had they been banned it may not have happened.

Not popular enough to be a speaker

1) they gave back half the hostages during a temporary ceasefire 2) so you rather Israel fall into their trap?

I’ve been calling for a ceasefire from day 1, and from day 1 Hamas said they’d return the hostages in exchange for a ceasefire. You and the pro Israeli’s here have been saying the war should continue, this means you are prioritizing a different goal than getting the hostages back, not me.