Forestluv

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Televangelist preacher Kenneth Copeland and his congregation coping with the election result:

Both the left and right may split. I think people are underestimating how much MAGA energy there is. 25% of the country is hardcore MAGA furious with GOP establishment because they are caving by accepting Biden’s win. There are some major power shifts and realignments occurring now.

For those who followed the election closely. I got them all, except one.

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Rudy Giuliani’s reaction as he hears the news that all the networks called the election for Biden.

Justin Trudeau gleefully congratulates Biden. The first world leader to do so.

A dagger into Trump.

The last holdout, FoxNews, calls it. Trump implosion is accerelating.

FoxNews still holding out

In unison, the media networks call the election for Biden (except FoxNews).

Hilary read him like a book

Trump is now complaining his lawyers suck.

It's hard to predict because Biden isn't clearly beyond recount thresholds - which means nearly all the votes need to be counted before a state is called. The last 3% or so of ballots take the longest to process because they include damaged ballots and provisional ballots. Those ballots can't be processed through a machine, they need to be processed by a person. The machines can process ballots much much faster than hand processing. As far as I know, GA is the only state doing a recount at this time. Official declarations may take several weeks, yet calling the election for Biden is a major step forward and would change the narrative. Trump is in a much weaker position after the election is called. I think at this point, holding back on the call is important for legitimacy. If they wait until there is no chance of a recount, it makes the call much stronger.

NV update: Good news for Biden lovers. NV just released more data that expanded Biden's lead. This puts Biden up 21K votes (0.8%). A losing candidate can request a recount, yet it would be really hard to prevent the calling of a state with a 0.8% lead in which the loser requested a recount without evidence of tabulation errors. (It would be similar to Trump requesting a recount in WI). The optics of that would be awful, especially since Biden is in the stronger position. The AP and FoxNews called AZ for Biden and they don't want to retract that call. They are sitting on NV, until they are 100% sure on AZ. Calling NV for Biden would declare Biden the winner. Trump can request a recount in NV, yet I don't think it would be taken seriously without a recount in AZ or PA. From my POV, Trump will need a recount in AZ or PA. And there is relatively good news out of AZ - Biden just led in a new batch released from Yuma. This is a county Trump is winning by 6%. This puts him further off pace. Currently, Biden has a 1.1% lead and it's looking more and more unlikely Trump will reach the 0.1% threshold for a state-mandated recount. AZ does not allow a loser to request a recount. Yet I suppose Trump could try to get one via a lawsuit if it's under 0.5%. Yet Trump winning a lawsuit to over-ride AZ law and force a recount is not a good look. That is very different than a state like GA that will conduct an auto state-mandated recount. If Trump closes to under 0.2%, that is well within recount range - and most states would have an auto recount. In this case, the strict AZ recount laws would benefit Biden. Yet I could see a court mandating an AZ recount if PA enters a recount and Trump is within 0.5% in AZ. The next large data release from AZ will be about 9pm est and it will give a better idea how close Trump can get. My impression is that 0.5% seems to be perceived as a "reasonable" standard for a recount. In PA, Biden has expanded his lead to 19.5k. . . Only 1% of provisional ballots have been reported. Although they were from deeply red areas, Trump barely won them. As well, statewide provisional ballots are 0.9% of the total vote, yet over 2% of ballots in Philly are estimated to be provisional - so there are a disproportionate number of ballots in Philly. And historically, provisional ballots heavily favor Dems. So there is no reason to believe that the provisional ballots will favor Trump. It's much more likely the provisionals will favor Biden.

Exactly. the post-marked late-arriving ballots have not been invalidated (that is Trump's lawsuit). For now, they have just been placed to the side and have not been added to the published vote totals. My impression is that the courts will hear Trump's case and this is why the PA court told election officials to put the ballots aside. In PA, the state senate is majority republican. The governer and head election official are democrat and wanted to start VBM counting days before Nov. 3rd - yet the republican PA senate blocked them. My impression is the election officials want to publish the the post-marked, late arriving ballots. I hope they are counting those ballots now. If the PA supreme court decides against Trump and gives elections officials the green light - they need to immediately release those numbers - because Trump will try to immediately get scotus block their release to get a scotus trial. Once those numbers are released, it will be much harder to invalidate those ballots. It's much easier to invalidate ballots most people don't know about and aren't included in the tally. In contrast, imagine a court invalidating ballots that have already been included in the tally, such that Biden's current 28k lead was cut to a 2k lead. Those optics look like blatant cheating and their would be public outrage. Even though the post-marked ballots are legal, Trump's team can hope most people don't know about them or he can portray them as "pending" or "illegal" ballots,. The PA supreme court has consistently ruled against Trump. I just read up more on this case and I made an error. The PA supreme court upheld the law and said the post-marked, late arriving ballots should be counted and tabulated. The PA republican senate then went to scoutus, who said the ballots must be separated and could not be included in the tabulation at this time. PA election officials have said there are about 55k of these ballots, which would be a 27k lead. That 27k could have helped prevent a recount.

Part of the problem with the Trump team's argument is how consistent it is. In PA, they want to invalidate post-marked, late arriving ballots - yet in AZ they want to count post-marked, late arriving ballots.

GA update: Biden's lead in GA is now up to 4.2k. I can't find the estimated number of outstanding ballots left, yet my impression is that there are very few and Biden's first count lead is around 4k. Historically, it's tough to flip a 4k lead without a tabulation error. Assuming a fair recount, it's 80%+ chance for Biden. I'm really grateful to Stacey Abrams. In 2018, she lost a razor thin governer's race filled with voter suppression and lack of transparency. She spent the last two years fighting for voter's rights and more transparency. My sense is the recount will be relatively fair - and if they overturn a 4k margin, they need to show some type of gross error. Saying there were some miscounted or ineligible ballots isn't enough - that type of stuff only flips hundreds of votes. Maybe 1-2k. Yet once it gets into 4k+, I think there needs to be some type of tabulation error.

The framing of "Both sides are corrupt" benefits Trump's side since it gives him cover. So far, Biden has had the stronger position and his team is allowing states to do their thing. Trump's team is the one trying to stop counting in one state, continue counting in another state - invalidate a ballot type in one state, yet have the same ballot type be valid in another state etc.

No one wants to call the election if there is a chance of a recount. In NV, there is no threshold for a state-mandated recount, yet the losing candidate can request a recount. Obviously, Trump would request a recount if he think it will benefit him. In AZ, an auto-recount is triggered at a win <0.1%. Losing candidates are not allowed to request a recount. Yet I don't know if the AZ GOP or Trump could force a recount through lawsuits. I'm sure they will try. The larger Biden's lead over 0.1% the harder it would be to force a recount. If Biden's lead is 0.15%, I could see a judge allowing a recount - especially since it could determine the election. I'm not sure what AZ law is, yet this exactly why Trump wanted his scotus judges. Yet I imagine a lead of 0.5%+ would be much harder to get a recount. In PA, the auto recount threshold is 0.5%, yet I don't know if that is just for non-provisional ballots or includes provisional ballots. For the election to be called soon, Biden needs to be outside the recount zone of either; (A) NV and AZ or (B) PA. Yet Trump will do all he can to force recounts, dispute ballots, prevent post-marked ballots from being counted etc. If Biden has a 0.2% lead in AZ and PA goes recount, I see Trump trying to force a recount in AZ in courts. People have been talking for months about how Trump will force lawsuits. His chances of gaining traction go up considerably if there is an auto-recount in AZ or PA (or Trump can convince judges to prevent NV from declaring a winner before a recount). Right now, Biden has the narrative momentum - yet NV, AZ, or PA needs to call soon to maintain that momentum. At this point, the process has seemed fair, yet that can change if cracks start opening up for Trump. By Pennsylvania law, mail in ballots post-marked by Nov. 3rd are eligible, even if they arrive after Nov. 3rd. There is a batch of ballots that are post-marked Nov. 3rd, yet arrived late. These will favor Biden. They are being counted, yet Trump / GOP was successful in getting these ballots put to the side during their lawsuits trying to invalidate these ballots. These votes have not been added to the reported PA numbers. It has not been determined whether they will count. Trump's lawsuit is to invalidate them. There hasn't been a decision yet. For now, they have been placed to the side. Hopefully Biden won't need these ballots, yet this is the type of thing Dems worried about with the courts. The PA senate is majority republican and the governor and head election official is Democrat - so a split. The last few months, there have been many lawsuits in PA and so far the PA courts have seemed fair - yet I'm disappointed that they didn't throw this case out. Yet I trust the PA supreme court much more than scotus. Correction: The PA supreme court upheld the law and said the post-marked, late arriving ballots should be counted and tabulated. The PA republican senate then went to scotus, who said the ballots must be separated and could not be included in the tabulation at this time. PA election officials have said there are about 55k of these ballots

That's not what the data suggest. Historically, provisional ballots heavily favor Dems. This election in PA, only a small portion of provisionals have been counted - they moderated favored Trump, yet these we in deep red areas. Since Trump under-performed on these provisional, it suggest they won't help him. For example, if Trump wins 80% of a county's non-provisional ballots, yet only 60% of the provisional ballots - he is underperforming on provisionals and which suggests Biden would prevail on provisionals statewide.

PA update: According to PA law, an auto recount is triggered if a lead is less than 0.5%. The AP has stated that they will not call PA without clear evidence of a >0.5% lead, and other media networks are following suit. In this context, it seems reasonable not to call PA - since it is a state-mandated recount. There is no doubt Biden will end with the lead, yet there still is doubt whether it will be >0.5% and for all we know, the AP and others want to see 0.6% as a cushion. . . Recounts generally have changes of hundreds of votes an occassion a few thousand - yet not 10s of thousands. However, it the recount would take 1-2 weeks and empower Trumpers / FoxNews that this isn't over. The propaganda, conspiracies, fraud claims, protests would be full blast if it came down to a PA recount. GA has already stated there will be a state-mandated recount. AZ has a state-mandated recount for margins <.01%. The good news for Biden is that AZ does not allow a candidate to request a recount. So to have the election called soon, without 1-2 weeks of recounts and legal battles - Biden needs NV + AZ with a clear lead over 0.1% in AZ. Or a clear lead over 0.5% in PA. It looks like Biden will have a lead in AZ and is sure to have a lead in PA, yet the question is if the leads will be large enough to prevent state-mandated recounts. The Pennsylvania SOS site reports there are 112,796 uncounted mail in ballots. Biden has been winning about 75% VBM. However, PA has not stated if all uncounted mail in ballots are eligible to be counted. As well, MSNBC has reported their are about 100,00 provisional ballots. Those generally break for Dems, yet I don't know if that's an assumption we can make in this election. As well, there are military and overseas ballots. Based on the projected vote total, a 0.05% lead will be about 35k votes. Biden currently has a 14.3k lead, so he needs at least 21k more and an extra 1-2k would be nice as a cushion. Assuming all the uncounted mail in votes are eligible the math is (112,796 * 0.75) - (112,796 * 0.25) = 56.4k. Plus Biden's current 14.3k lead gives a total lead of 69.7k. That is a 1.0% lead and likely enough to call it on non-provisionals. Yet this assumes all the remaining mail-in ballots are eligible. Even so, Trump wouldn't be mathematically out of a recount if all provisionals were eligible and he won 70% of provisionals / military / overseas. That would bring him into the auto recount zone. I don't know how much of a cushion Biden needs on non-provisionals for the race to be called. As well, Trump had a lawsuit victory in which all mail-in ballots post-marked Nov.3rd or before, yet were received after election day are counted separately and not added to the total. The good news for Biden is that these will likely overwhelmingly favor him (about 3:1). This is why Trump is making such a strong effort to prevent these ballots from being added to the total. Biden could win outright without those ballots, yet as I described above, it's uncertain if Biden's lead will be large enough to ensure there isn't a state-mandated recount. If Trump is successful in blocking the post-marked ballots and it goes to recount - that gives Trumpers opportunity and time to create a chaotic, mess. The alternative is that Biden gets NV and AZ (>.01%). If AZ is over, yet close to, .01% I assume Trump will fight in courts to have a recount. This is exactly why Trump wanted his scotus justices. The AP and FoxNews already called AZ, which is not yet 100% certain to be outside of recount territory. NV looks like a lock for Biden, yet the AP and FoxNews won't call it due to the AZ uncertainty. And another trick is that NV doesn't have an auto recount rule, yet a candidate can request a recount, which Trump would certainly to try and block Biden from 270. So now the AP and FoxNews have to decide what is reasonably close for a recount. FoxNews likely pulled the plug on the dude who called AZ, so it looks like the AP is the main player here. Since 0.5% is the highest threshold for a state-mandated recount, that could be the APs standard. Currently, Trump's team wants to slow down the release of NV and AZ data as they sow seeds of fraud and doubt about the mail in process. Trump and FoxNews have changed their tone to "we want all legal votes counted. This election put a lot of demands on mail in voting and we just want to see if there were any problems". This has gotten some traction in that they were able to recruit constitutional lawyer Johnathon Turley to take this position. Turley isn't a RWNJ - he is seen as a mainstream moderate. I think Turley went on FoxNews on good faith and wasn't aware of the underlying strategy. Biden is clearly in the stronger position, yet timing and margins matter. If Trumpers can delay and block votes to stay within recount zones - it will empower their "this isn't over yet" narrative and I think the Dems are a bit too willing to play the "let's let the process work itself out". If we get into recounts, Trumpers / FoxNews will be greatly empowered, get some narrative control back and things could get messy. Right now, the iron is hot for Biden and he his seen by most as the presumptive winner - yet that can change if there is a state-mandated recount in PA, the AP doesn't call NV for Biden and Trump requests a NV recount (or gets a recount in AZ). Wisconsin Republicans encouraged Trumpers in PA to mail in ballots late - perhaps to cause a mess. Right now, Trump is playing defense and the winds are against him - yet that can change. Timing and Biden margins are important.