vinc3nc

@LordFall Depends on how you do it. You can DCA into BTC at the lows, but chasing with leverage is dangerous. Buying spot at these levels is not nearly as dangerous, especially if you make sure that if it drops, you improve your average buy price. What’s also dangerous is not buying anything because you think it will go lower (or because it “has” to go lower), only to stay sidelined and eventually feel FOMO, which can lead to bad decisions.

@LordFall PA is ultimately the most important thing, and then what is supposed to happen based on macroeconomics becomes irrelevant. No one can predict the future. Just because we're supposed to go lower doesn't mean we will.

@LordFall Trapped like at the lows in 2023?

@LordFall You're making a lot of assumptions here. Good luck to you too.

@LordFall I don't have time to convince you of why you should invest in anything. It's your job to DYOR. My main issue here was with Leo saying and repeating many times that BTC and crypto were going to crash because of the AI bubble, when BTC was already 55% down from the top and lots of alts were like 85–97% down from their highs. When things literally can't go much lower because of how much they've already been destroyed, and when youre already like 90% into the bear market, you have a person saying, "crypto is gonna crash." Ive been through 3 crypto cycles already (since 2017), and its just funny because its always the same, or at least very similar. So I know what the sentiment is like around the top and the bottom, and what people tend to say.

This is BTC against gold and BTC against stocks. This is where you buy BTC. Not at the highs, but at the lows. Not when its at 100k or 120k or 150k, but when its at 65k or 60k or lower. Thats how you make money. But most people do the opposite. Like everywhere else, most people lose money: poker, casinos, sports betting, investing. Its all the same.

@LordFall BTC itself doesn't need to be explained. Scarcity, store of value, etc. Crypto (altcoins) is a different story. It's more speculative. But, for instance, take a look at Hyperliquid, and you'll see that there are good projects out there. Other than that, there are the 4-year cycles. Bear markets usually last around 365 days, while bull markets last 1000+ days. We're nearing the end of the bear market (October). You buy when it's boring, prices are low, and no one wants to buy. People are predicting even lower prices, unrealistically low ones. BTC has always made a new ATH. Higher highs, higher lows. Its more volatile than most things, but thats a feature, not a bug. Buy at the right time, and you'll outperform most people. Buy at the wrong time, and you'll get rekt. It's not a game for everyone, but certainly for patient people, those who can handle the volatility, and those who believe in a better form of money.

@LordFall The problem with that is that BTC could rally to 100K in a few months and then crash to 60K if the AI bubble pops. Or it might happen even later, by which point BTC could be at 130K and then crash to 80k, or from 150K to 100K, or from 180K to 130K, etc. Imagine not investing in BTC or crypto because something might happen. It just doesnt make sense because you dont know how or when it's going to happen.

I buy when prices are cheap. It's all about buying low. I don't care about AI. It could take a few years before that happens, and I'm not going to be fearful and do nothing just because it might happen at some point. Crypto might complete another bull run before that type of crash. No risk, no reward.

With this BTC rally, it's a high chance the bottom is in.

Do you now understand what I was saying? Crypto is rippin'

I still dont understand why you equate tech stocks with crypto. Stocks are near their highs, while crypto has been destroyed and is bottoming out. BTC is down 50%, and altcoins are down 85–97%. This is not where you sell BTC or crypto. This is where you start DCAing into it slowly until October (if you believe in it). The last 2 bear markets lasted exactly 1 year, and we are less than 3 months away from that 1-year mark. Yes, gold is down 30%, so its not a bad buying opportunity. It might go down to 3k, but nothing is guaranteed, so 4k is still a decent entry. But selling crypto here to buy gold just doesn't make sense to me. Stocks, on the other hand, are a different story.

When it comes to assets, theres a spectrum of risk: gold, silver, stocks, Bitcoin, crypto, and so on. You can create an edge over other investors by understanding certain assets better than most people. As a result, even though an asset may appear riskier on paper, to you it isnt because you recognize that its value may be mispriced. Bitcoin might seem extremely risky to someone who knows little about it, while someone who has studied it extensively may view its long-term risk differently. Another edge is simply buying low and selling high by being patient enough to wait for the right opportunities.

Fair enough if your risk appetite isn't that high. Also, keep in mind that gold did pretty much nothing for about 12 years (2012–2024) before breaking above 2k and starting a bull run. During that same period, BTC... well, I don't need to tell you what it did. Gold's recent bull run also contributed to BTC's underperformance because a lot of capital rotated into gold once it finally went parabolic. Now, who knows how long it will take for gold to have another rally like this? It could end up consolidating for years. On the other hand, BTC is also becoming a bigger and bigger asset, which means it will deliver diminishing returns over time. As the years go by, it will become less and less appealing for people looking for outsized gains. Owning both BTC and gold is the best option. What % of each depends on the person.

I agree that at 64k today, BTC carries more risk since there's probably another leg down coming over the next few months. But if you understand that BTC tends to follow a 4-year cycle, 3 years of a bull market and 1 year of a bear market, then buying in Q4 (in October most likely), especially if it drops toward 40k, becomes a no-brainer. (Gold = lower risk, lower gains)

The problem with this kind of thinking is that you never buy BTC when it crashes because you're always afraid it might go lower, no matter how much it has already fallen. If it drops to 40k, that's already deep value, yet you still won't buy because you'll be waiting for 30k or even 20k.

Crypto has already nosedived. It's been going down for like 9 months while stocks have been making new highs almost every week. Risk assets tend to decline first and bottom first. So it's likely that BTC will bottom before stocks again, somewhere around 40k–45k. Calling for 20k BTC is essentially saying it's going to fail. That's just not a realistic scenario.

@ZenSwift The shorter the woman, the more she benefits from a man being as tall as possible, as their offspring are likely to be taller. It sucks I know.

Imagine if she has green, or purple, or orange, or pink hair on top of that...

First of all, this is not financial advice. For those of you who are into investing and have money on the sidelines waiting to be invested, theres a chance you may be able to buy Bitcoin near $40k in Q4 this year. It might be early October, as the last two bear markets lasted close to 365 days (BTC topped on October 6), or it could happen a little earlier. There’s a lot of uncertainty around crypto right now, as the world seems to be going through a rough period with wars and global instability. Because of that, it’s difficult to buy anything when sentiment is this negative. But Bitcoin has always recovered. In 2011 it dropped more than 90%, in 2014 about 86%, in 2018 about 84%, and in 2022 around 77%. The price drops are always huge, and it’s extremely hard to buy when things look bad and hopeless. However, that’s when investors are rewarded the most. If you buy around $42k and it goes to $200k a few years later, that’s almost a 5x return. That alone might not make you financially free, but where else can you realistically expect that kind of gain with such a strong risk/reward opportunity? Bitcoin historically follows 4-year cycles. The last three bull runs (including this one) lasted 1064-1071 days, while the last two bear markets lasted around 365 days. This pattern is no coincidence, and it is wise to take advantage of it, until the pattern eventually changes. That said, nothing is guaranteed. The price might not go that low and you could miss the bottom, or it could even drop below $40k if things really fall apart. But from a long-term perspective, buying around that level could be an excellent opportunity. I have 8+ years of investing experience, and one thing I’ve learned is that most people don’t buy when prices are low. It’s psychologically difficult to buy when it feels like something is going to zero. Instead, many people end up chasing prices after they’ve already gone up significantly, and eventually make little money, or even lose it. The most money is often made during bear markets. It all comes down to the entry you get. If you enter well, you can simply sit on your hands and do nothing for a few years.

Today was a perfect day for the BTC top for this cycle, but then again, many people believe we will either top later this year or extend beyond 2026. You can't know for sure.

Been using ledger since 2017. It's ok. You can also buy trezor if you want.

@r0ckyreed BTC has no competition, while ETH has a lot. ETH is an L1, and theres a lot of L1s that are cheaper, faster, etc than ETH. The advantage ETH has is that it was the first L1. ETH might do well in the next couple of months (because it was underperforming for such a long time), but I wouldn't bet on it in the long term. So stick to BTC if you care about 5-10 years and you dont plan on trading.

@hyruga thats why timing is so important. BTC is up 7x from the bottom of Nov 2022, 600% in 2.5 years.

If it needed that much time, it would suck as an investment. Think bigger.