vinc3nc

Yes, dollars. The price is always discussed and analyzed in dollars, no matter where you're from. The question is, will you be able to stay patient and not sell until it gets there? Because the path won't be straight. And once BTC gets to let's say 190K, will you be able to actually push the sell button and not get greedy? Everything will look incredibly bullish at the top, and people will start talking about unrealistic price targets. That can make you change your strategy and do stupid things.

@Olaf My price prediction would be 180–200K this cycle (2028-2029 probably). That's realistic, but no one really knows. Buying it right now might not be ideal, because it's already gone up so much since August. If/when it pulls back 20%, I think it would be a great buy, considering we're "officially" in a bull market again. And don't listen to most people here when it comes to crypto, especially Leo, who's been wrong about it so many times.

@Leo Gura Zcash is like private BTC. Not my fault you only ever heard of BTC and have no knowledge of other coins.

Zcash crashed from $50 to $1500 in one year. But I was fearful of buying it at $200 because of the AI bubble crash thats coming.

@something_else I understand. It might sound stupid. But once you study BTC price action, it doesn't seem that stupid anymore. It follows a pattern: 3 years of bull market, 1 year of bear market. It's called the 4-year cycle. There's also something called the BTC halving, which happens every 4 years. You create an edge for yourself in the markets by studying things like history.

@Leo Gura The fear of the next crash can become more expensive than the crash itself.

@something_else @Leo Gura "I still dont understand why you equate tech stocks with crypto. Stocks are near their highs, while crypto has been destroyed and is bottoming out. BTC is down 50%, and altcoins are down 85–97%. This is not where you sell BTC or crypto. This is where you start DCAing into it slowly until October (if you believe in it). The last 2 bear markets lasted exactly 1 year, and we are less than 3 months away from that 1-year mark." This is what I wrote to one of his posts. So basically the fact that crypto basically went to zero and couldn't go any lower. So you could get amazing prices at the lows if you bought. because it was undervalued, A market bottoms where theres no sellers left.

Leo wanted you to sell BTC and crypto near the bottom (into gold). When BTC was at 64k, 10% above the bottom. And I told him multiples times that it was stupid. 2 months later BTC is at 87k and crypto is going up like crazy.

@LordFall I like Ben. He's one of the best. The lesson here is to never listen to just one person and make decisions based solely on what they say. Ultimately, you have to make your own decisions because it's your money that you're risking.

@LordFall

@Olaf Yes, it’s hard, especially if you’re a man.The odds are stacked against you. Very few people actually “make it” in the sense of becoming successful across all areas of life: health, wealth, happiness, and love. Everything gets more expensive every year, while salaries struggle to keep up. Loneliness is everywhere. Building wealth requires taking risks, and sometimes those risks cost you years of progress. There are no shortcuts. You have to work on yourself constantly. You have to become stronger, more disciplined, more capable, because life doesn’t get easier. In fact, it gets only harder if you refuse to do it. You have to become the kind of person who can handle whatever life throws at you. And that raises the real question: Are you willing to become that person? Because if you want to be in the top 1%, forget about the idea of a perfectly “balanced” life. There simply isnt enough time to maximize everything at once. You can’t simultaneously spend hours every day working on yourself, build a successful career, become wealthy, maintain a great social life, have a gf and give her the time she deserves, be there for your friends and family, sleep 8 hours, have multiple hobbies, travel, relax, and still have plenty of free time. Something has to give. At some point, you have to decide what matters most to you and be willing to sacrifice the things that matter less. You don’t get extraordinary results from an ordinary level of commitment. If you want an extraordinary life, you have to be willing to live differently from most people. And sometimes, you can do everything right and life still won’t reward you, at least not immediately. That’s why persistence becomes just as important as discipline. You have to keep going even when the results arent there yet, even when it feels like your effort isnt paying off.

@Leo Gura Also true. @AION Then why did you mention 35K? Is that a special number for some reason? What are you looking at? The market doesn’t owe you anything. If you can’t recognize when an asset enters the value zone, when it becomes cheap, then you don’t deserve the rewards when it eventually explodes to the upside. That’s why a DCA strategy is often so popular. You never really know when the bottom is in, so instead of trying to guess it and thinking you’re going to go all-in at a specific price, you simply DCA every month, regardless of the price. And you start doing that not at the top, but when the price has dropped enough for it to make sense.

Bears sound smart, Bulls make money.

@AION One example: the last three bull runs lasted 1064-1071 days. So, almost the exact same length of time (within 1 week). The last two bear markets lasted around 365 days. This one, if it bottoms in early October, will also have lasted around 365 days. If it's already bottomed, then that was 268 days, which is something that has never happened before (a short bear market), but then again, at some point this pattern has to break, right? Public perception? Well, BTC becomes cheaper and cheaper in people’s eyes the more it drops, especially as it gets closer to that 1-year mark of the bear market.

@AION I was calling for 40K to happen in early October this year and had been bearish since last October, when BTC topped. But whats happening now, with this BTC rally above 80K has changed things. I’ve stopped being bearish and think the bottom is in. Nothing is 100%. There can always be a black swan event that fucks everything up. But investing is a game of probabilities, and I give it 80% that the bottom is in. It still has to confirm that the bear market is over by making a higher high on the weekly, but if you’re waiting for confirmation, you will always be late to the party. HF waiting for 35k BTC.

What if gold goes up to like 7K before that happens, and then drops 30%? It would still be higher than it is right now. Things can stay stupid longer than you can fathom, and there’s always a bull market somewhere.

@something_else Depends on what “being wrong” looks like exactly. There are many levels to that, I guess. One is underperformance, another is slowly going to zero, and so on. Anyway, it’s interesting to see the opinions of people outside the crypto bubble. Spending so much time on X and watching crypto YouTube can make you blind to the fact that you’re only listening to people who are in the bubble with you, which can make you overlook certain things. So in general, crypto is still perceived very negatively by most people, and rightfully so, because of all the rugs and extraction that have happened. But on the other hand, it also makes me realize that we might still be early, because so few people have any knowledge of or interest in it, or simply don’t get it. Maybe we’re not that late yet.

@something_else BTC is only 17 years old. You can’t ask for a more reliable pattern. For me, BTC = less risk, or low risk, and alts are on the other side of the spectrum. Other assets aren’t of interest to me at the moment because I think there’s an enormous opportunity in crypto right now, and it’s going to reprice violently to the upside. Time will show whether I was right or not, and I have a feeling it will be the same as always: ‘You couldn’t have known. You just gambled and got lucky.’”

@something_else Not 3. There have been at least 4 market cycles (4 halvings), not counting what happened from 2009 to like 2012, The historical drawdowns have been 93%, then 87%, then 84%, then 77.5%, and now 54% in 2026. At the lows, BTC has always been doubted and even declared dead. But time and time again, it has shown its resilience and recovered to new ATHs. That’s why I wouldn’t bet against BTC. Also, I might be more aggressive regarding my goals when it comes to investing. I’m not satisfied with 15–20% per year. I dont just want to preserve my capital and slowly grow it, only to become wealthy when I’m 55 or 65. If thats what you want to do, thats perfectly fine. And for most people, it’s not a bad strategy. Most people don’t even invest, so if you’re making 15–20% per year, you’re already a winner in a sense. My goal is to become financially free before I turn 40, or in my early 40s at the latest (not from 0, I’m already like 70% there). Also, keep in mind that conviction doesn’t require certainty. It requires believing strongly enough to act despite uncertainty.

@something_else So any investment that’s not super safe and predictable is in your opinion gambling? BTC is very volatile compared to other things, especially when it was a smaller asset. But if you study previous cycles and drawdowns, you can pretty much “know” what to expect in the next one. If there were suddenly some kind of fundamental issue with BTC, then I wouldn’t hesitate to reconsider things. But with BTC, nothing has ever fundamentally changed. Just because the price drops a lot doesn’t mean something is now broken. The reason I lost 90% was because I had bought altcoins with the BTC I had. They went up way more than BTC, but they also crashed WAY more when BTC dropped to 3K in 2018. With alts, you’re definitely gambling. I wouldn’t say the same for BTC imo. It’s riskier not to own any. To you, buying things after they’ve dropped 60%, 70%, 80%, or more might seem like gambling, but to me that has always been the best opportunity to make money. Maybe it’s because you don’t believe in BTC, or maybe you’re not aware of how much money is being printed all the fucking time. What one calls gambling, another calls conviction. I still stand by this.

@something_else I first invested in BTC in August 2017 at 4K. By the end of December (early January), I had 4x’d my portfolio in unrealized gains. That was probably the craziest bull market ever. Eventually, I lost 90% of it by not selling anything, partly because of inexperience and because it was my first crypto cycle. In the second cycle (2018–2021), I barely invested any new money, thinking my altcoins would recover and that I’d make all the money back. Some of them did recover, but most didnt, so I failed my second crypto cycle as well. That was also when I got into spirituality, so I had less motivation to make money and pursue all this material stuff. In 2022, I was like, “Enough is enough. If I don’t make it in this next cycle, I won’t be able to forgive myself.” So I locked in, got a job, and worked for two years, investing 80% of my salary every month into BTC and Solana at the lows. This time, I didn’t fuck it up. I made tons of profit, largely thanks to Solana going from 8usd to almost 300usd, and now Im well positioned for the next cycle. Let’s just say Im almost retired because of it. The reason I had so much conviction is that I was staring at the screens all the time, studying the charts, listening to tons of people talk about investing and crypto, and being on X every single day, following the right people. Once you’ve done all that, there’s no doubt in your mind that BTC will always recover in the next cycle, no matter how hopeless it looks. But yeah, it takes a lot of effort and time to figure out which altcoins to invest in, because if you don’t, you'll get screwed. Every consecutive cycle gets harder and harder to make it (BTC ain't 4k anymore haha).

@something_else From your perspective, it's gambling. From mine, conviction. @Leo Gura You have no idea what Bitcoin will do next month, but you can look at the previous bear markets and see when it becomes a good investment again.

@Leo Gura You can predict the future in the sense that you say: fiat will lose value, hard assets will go up. But you can't predict what a certain asset will do exactly, regarding time and price.

I derisked by selling into fiat near the top. I could have bought XAUT in November if I had known it was available on that same exchange before this gold bull market started. I would have made way more money. I think investing in gold and other safer “things” makes sense when you’ve already made it big and just want to preserve your capital. I’m at a point where taking the risk with crypto still makes more sense for me. I have so much experience with it that, by itself, it gives me an edge in trading/investing in crypto. I don't have nearly as much experience with other markets. When you're at that point, it feels like money is just lying there on the floor waiting to be picked up.

@LordFall I'm 100% in crypto. Sold at 107k, rebought near the lows. I risked it all years ago and got rewarded massively.