vinc3nc

I still dont understand why you equate tech stocks with crypto. Stocks are near their highs, while crypto has been destroyed and is bottoming out. BTC is down 50%, and altcoins are down 85–97%. This is not where you sell BTC or crypto. This is where you start DCAing into it slowly until October (if you believe in it). The last 2 bear markets lasted exactly 1 year, and we are less than 3 months away from that 1-year mark. Yes, gold is down 30%, so its not a bad buying opportunity. It might go down to 3k, but nothing is guaranteed, so 4k is still a decent entry. But selling crypto here to buy gold just doesn't make sense to me. Stocks, on the other hand, are a different story.

When it comes to assets, theres a spectrum of risk: gold, silver, stocks, Bitcoin, crypto, and so on. You can create an edge over other investors by understanding certain assets better than most people. As a result, even though an asset may appear riskier on paper, to you it isnt because you recognize that its value may be mispriced. Bitcoin might seem extremely risky to someone who knows little about it, while someone who has studied it extensively may view its long-term risk differently. Another edge is simply buying low and selling high by being patient enough to wait for the right opportunities.

Fair enough if your risk appetite isn't that high. Also, keep in mind that gold did pretty much nothing for about 12 years (2012–2024) before breaking above 2k and starting a bull run. During that same period, BTC... well, I don't need to tell you what it did. Gold's recent bull run also contributed to BTC's underperformance because a lot of capital rotated into gold once it finally went parabolic. Now, who knows how long it will take for gold to have another rally like this? It could end up consolidating for years. On the other hand, BTC is also becoming a bigger and bigger asset, which means it will deliver diminishing returns over time. As the years go by, it will become less and less appealing for people looking for outsized gains. Owning both BTC and gold is the best option. What % of each depends on the person.

I agree that at 64k today, BTC carries more risk since there's probably another leg down coming over the next few months. But if you understand that BTC tends to follow a 4-year cycle, 3 years of a bull market and 1 year of a bear market, then buying in Q4 (in October most likely), especially if it drops toward 40k, becomes a no-brainer. (Gold = lower risk, lower gains)

The problem with this kind of thinking is that you never buy BTC when it crashes because you're always afraid it might go lower, no matter how much it has already fallen. If it drops to 40k, that's already deep value, yet you still won't buy because you'll be waiting for 30k or even 20k.

Crypto has already nosedived. It's been going down for like 9 months while stocks have been making new highs almost every week. Risk assets tend to decline first and bottom first. So it's likely that BTC will bottom before stocks again, somewhere around 40k–45k. Calling for 20k BTC is essentially saying it's going to fail. That's just not a realistic scenario.

@ZenSwift The shorter the woman, the more she benefits from a man being as tall as possible, as their offspring are likely to be taller. It sucks I know.

Imagine if she has green, or purple, or orange, or pink hair on top of that...

First of all, this is not financial advice. For those of you who are into investing and have money on the sidelines waiting to be invested, theres a chance you may be able to buy Bitcoin near $40k in Q4 this year. It might be early October, as the last two bear markets lasted close to 365 days (BTC topped on October 6), or it could happen a little earlier. There’s a lot of uncertainty around crypto right now, as the world seems to be going through a rough period with wars and global instability. Because of that, it’s difficult to buy anything when sentiment is this negative. But Bitcoin has always recovered. In 2011 it dropped more than 90%, in 2014 about 86%, in 2018 about 84%, and in 2022 around 77%. The price drops are always huge, and it’s extremely hard to buy when things look bad and hopeless. However, that’s when investors are rewarded the most. If you buy around $42k and it goes to $200k a few years later, that’s almost a 5x return. That alone might not make you financially free, but where else can you realistically expect that kind of gain with such a strong risk/reward opportunity? Bitcoin historically follows 4-year cycles. The last three bull runs (including this one) lasted 1064-1071 days, while the last two bear markets lasted around 365 days. This pattern is no coincidence, and it is wise to take advantage of it, until the pattern eventually changes. That said, nothing is guaranteed. The price might not go that low and you could miss the bottom, or it could even drop below $40k if things really fall apart. But from a long-term perspective, buying around that level could be an excellent opportunity. I have 8+ years of investing experience, and one thing I’ve learned is that most people don’t buy when prices are low. It’s psychologically difficult to buy when it feels like something is going to zero. Instead, many people end up chasing prices after they’ve already gone up significantly, and eventually make little money, or even lose it. The most money is often made during bear markets. It all comes down to the entry you get. If you enter well, you can simply sit on your hands and do nothing for a few years.

Today was a perfect day for the BTC top for this cycle, but then again, many people believe we will either top later this year or extend beyond 2026. You can't know for sure.

Been using ledger since 2017. It's ok. You can also buy trezor if you want.

@r0ckyreed BTC has no competition, while ETH has a lot. ETH is an L1, and theres a lot of L1s that are cheaper, faster, etc than ETH. The advantage ETH has is that it was the first L1. ETH might do well in the next couple of months (because it was underperforming for such a long time), but I wouldn't bet on it in the long term. So stick to BTC if you care about 5-10 years and you dont plan on trading.

@hyruga thats why timing is so important. BTC is up 7x from the bottom of Nov 2022, 600% in 2.5 years.

If it needed that much time, it would suck as an investment. Think bigger.

If your time horizon is 5-10 years, you shouldn't really care that much at what price you buy it. But if you want to optimize things, you should be buying more in the bear market. 200k this cycle would be amazing, but I dont think it will happen. Anything above 160-170k would already surprise me. And I dont care that much about price, Im expecting early October to be the top no matter what. Because that's how the previous cycles topped and Im gonna stick to that.

Been investing for almost 8 years. My advice is the following: avoid investing in any kind of alt coin in your first cycle, just stick with bitcoin great alt coins can outperform BTC in the short term (1 or 2 cycles max), but in the long term they all go to 0 against BTC beware that the bull cycle could be like 80% over already (realize that you're late) taking profits above 150k is a good idea, considering you've bought it above 100k (but it might not even hit 150k) don't listen to people who say that BTC will go to 200k-300k (those people are the reason people never sell and hold all the way down, giving all their profits back to the market) when everyone starts talking about crypto, even people you've never thought would talk about crypto or own it, it's a great chance the market has topped prepare for the next cycle as much as possible - start DCAing into BTC near the bottom of the bear market which will probably come late 2026 (unless this cycle turns out to be completely different than the previous ones which I doubt it will) the most profits you can make is to buy it when things have been going down for months and months and when everyone is losing hope and questioning whether or not BTC will ever recover (or when there is a black swan event - when things crash as hard as they did during covid, march 12 2020)

Most people should stay away from meme coins. There's too many out there nowadays so chances are you won't pick the right one, at the right time. You are not special. What makes you think you're one of those that will pick the right one? It took me 3 cycles to make it in crypto, and I haven't ever played with leverage. Holding spot only, picking the "right" coins. Get rich slowly is the only way. If you get lucky with a meme coin, you might think you've made it, but eventually you will give it back to the market, because you haven't earned it the "right" way.

@FourCrossedWands comparing Leo to Warren Buffett lol. It must suck to be a no-coiner. I would stay away from crypto discussion if I had no clue what i was talking about.

A bull run starts the moment a bear run ends, and the bear market for BTC ended in November 2022. It's been going up since then. For every $1000 you put in at the bottom would now be worth $6500. That's 550% from the bottom. If you're buying BTC now, you're risking way more than the previous years, so to say the bull run hasn't even started yet is just not reasonable.

But keep in mind, the steepest rise is in the last phase of the market (when things go parabolic). That's why I was "mocking" Leo's tweet. He sold during a consolidation phase during a bull market, confidently calling for a "crash" (bottom in his words). You can't know. What if these prices are the next bear market's lows? You should know by now how crazy things can get at the end. Most coins haven't even hit their previous cycle's ATH. You can enter in the last phase of the market and still make the majority of the gains (if you pick the right coins, of course), But yeah, buying BTC here won't make you millions probably.

Not everything is up so much. ETH hasn't done shit this cycle yet. And you just proved my point by hodling ETH yourself. You're not going to sell it because you see and know it's going higher most likely. To ATH first & then probably 6k+, Pullbacks in a bull market are small & rarely ever more than 20-25%. You had a lot of time to accumulate between March and November this year. That's like 8-9 months of consolidation, and thinking that after such a long consolidation, the market will only go up for a month and then enter a bear market is just crazy. Have some conviction. Apart from holding things long-term, I was lucky enough that I entered at the lows this cycle, probably average buy just above 20k for BTC. I also went heavy in Solana at the lows, was buying it from 25usd all the way down to 8usd (it's now above 240). I knew Solana was a no brainer. And I've had it staked for a long time now, which brings me a salary worth of SOL just from staking alone. So I'm just holding, not trading. Planning to sell everything in a few months or when things go really crazy. If I wanted to trade, it would bring me just unnecessary stress, which I learned in the past is not worth it. And if I didn't have any crypto right now, I would probably go all-in in ETH, because it will most likely make up for it in the coming weeks/months. It's the safest bet right now or at least it was near 3k-ish. But you won't make it big with ETH, but it's low risk. It won't make you 5-10x like other coins can. Considering the bull market might be 60-80% over, it's hard to make it unless you take on more risk with coins that have low market cap. Or you go really heavy with safer ones.

Not to brag, but I have to state a few facts about myself, because otherwise you'll just think I'm a typically guy who gambles their money away. I bought my first BTC at 4k in 2017 and went all-in soon after because I saw the potential to change my life pretty much immediately. Thanks to BTC and me being quite early, I've been able to become financially free. I no longer need to work a 9-5 job. It wasn't an easy path, but it was worth going all in, even though I sacrificed so much to accomplish that. It's crazy to think that some people have to work 30-40 years to get the amount of money you can get in one crypto cycle (if you're smart about it). It makes you think that society really is a scam. Anyways, I agree that if you've made life changing money, then you should sell most of it, no matter where we are in the cycle. Because you never know what happens, and if you've made enough, it doesn't matter. Greed can make you lose all of it. @integral Im assuming that you're not heavily invested in BTC, nor have made a lot of money in BTC/crypto. I see that you have no conviction or at least not all of it. If it's so easy to just wait for everything to drop 80-99%, why haven't you accumulated everything at the bottom and come to the point where you can say "I've made it financially"? It's so easy to say "I'll buy lower, when everything drops 98% and then go all in", but when the worst of the bear market comes, no one wants to buy at the lows, because everything seems hopeless and bottomless at that time.

@integral If it was so easy to just sell and wait for the crash so you could buy lower, then we would all be Warren Buffetts, wouldn't we? How do you know it's more likely to crash? You're just guessing and you have no clue. Yes, eventually, another bear market will come. We don't know when and at what price. But you can look at the historical data and guess a little bit better based on that, because you see what the market tends to do at certain times. But to say that it's more likely to crash right now is just ridiculous. what does "crash" even mean to you? And what if you sell at 60k or 70k, and then BTC goes over 100k and never again drops below, let's say, 90k. What then? The train has left and you're waiting for "the crash". Just guessing and waiting for a crash won't get you far in investing game.

@FourCrossedWands Do you own any BTC or any other asset?

@FourCrossedWands one who understands the bitcoin 4 year cycle thing - that bitcoin goes up immensly post the halving event and post election - does not sell their bitcoin in the middle of a bull run.