Elliott
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Everything posted by Elliott
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Fertility rate and family size declined first, during the enlightenment period, and 100 years before modern medicine and sanitation.
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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5949541-susan-collins-graham-platner-maine-senate-race-fox-survey/ Collins leading Platner 2 hours ago — Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) is narrowly leading Democratic candidate Graham Platner in the Maine Senate race, according to a new survey
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You cant make that conclusion, family sizes decreased starting in the 18th century, down to less than half today, modern medicine didn't begin until 100 years later. Why would lower infant mortality halve family sizes, it should increase family size. That conclusion is nonsensical.
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The trends almost match perfectly. People never had kids to stave off "population collapse" until TODAY actually.
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I actually don't mind it, so long as it's not common. It's an AI thread.
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countries with higher birth rates (total fertility rates) strongly correlate with higher child mortality rates.
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Lower birthrate greatly skews life expectency, less babies per parent
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Grok has used motte and bailey, retreating from "breakthrough" to 'widespread implementation', denied facts, and cherrypicked data. Artificial Ignorance This boom is the epitome of puting the cart before the hotse. They've taken transformers(Google searchPlus) and grammar check, piped them through GPU extrapalation and slapped A.I. on it.
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And completely dismissing the birth rate, my reference to contraception.
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It's no different than using statistics from during a plague, it's cherrypicking, it's one small time period.
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Grok is still cherry picking agrarian society, of which has only been 1/30 of human existence. Unrefuted modern studies of living primitive humans show a similar age expectation for people over 15, an age higher than most countries today. Grok is trash.
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Cherrypicking again, average lifespan is average lifespan, a higher average lifespan for 100,000 years. The modern studies of primitive cultures that still exist prove that technology have not appreciably increased the length of human life. If you include abortion and contraception we're probably statistically lower. And I don't even mean counting fetuses, I mean if we birthed every time, we'd have such a population that the death rate would go through the roof, from things like disease, war, and poverty. "Anatomically modern humans 100,000 years ago had a biological maximum lifespan of roughly 70 to 80 years, which is essentially the same as today." "Anthropological studies of modern hunter-gatherer societies (which serve as our best models for ancient populations) show that elders who survived to adulthood regularly lived to be 68 to 78 years old. They played highly valued roles in their communities as caretakers, storytellers, and holders of vital survival"
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False, most of human history has been hunter-gatherer, agrarian has been 7,000 of 300,000 years of human history
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Grok is cherrypicking a narrow time and demographic in history, he's using statistics from industrial hubs. https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2024/10/life-expectations/ "Most adults who made it to age 15 typically lived well into their late 60s and 70s." this was an old study of living hunter gatherers with no modern tech or medicine https://gurven.anth.ucsb.edu/sites/secure.lsit.ucsb.edu.anth.d7_gurven/files/sitefiles/papers/GurvenKaplan2007pdr.pdf Were these accounts just anomalies, miracles, God's chosen people? "during the Agricultural Revolution, adult life expectancy briefly worsened due to poorer diets and new crowd diseases." Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org Mitch McConnell Mitch McConnell ; Addison Mitchell McConnell III (1942-02-20) February 20, 1942 (age 84). Sheffield, Alabama, U.S. · Republican Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org Joe Biden Born Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. (1942-11-20) November 20, 1942 (age 83) Scranton, Pennsylvania, was born on November 20, 1942 2025 Nigeria’s life expectancy is approximately 54.9 years, which ranks
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Nope 60-70 BBC https://www.bbc.com Do we really live longer than our ancestors? Back in 1994 a study looked at every man entered into the Oxford Classical Dictionary who lived in ancient Greece or Rome. Their ages of death were compared to men listed in the more recent Chambers Biographical Dictionary. Of 397 ancients in total, 99 died violently by murder, suicide or in battle. Of the remaining 298, those born before 100BC lived to a median age of 72 years. Those born after 100BC lived to a median age of 66. (The authors speculate that the prevalence of dangerous lead plumbing may have led to this apparent shortening of life). 2026 The median age of death across Africa roughly mirrors the continent's overall life expectancy at birth, which stands at approximately 64 years. However, the media The average life expectancy in Africa is approximately 64.2 years. While this is a major increase from 53 years in 2000, it remains over
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Not true again, discounting child mortality, humans lived just as long or longer than today prior to the industrial revolution.
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That's not true, electricity was invented 300 years before large scale investment, internal combustion engine was 50, the internet was invented 30 years before large scale private investment (infrastructure was largely built by government too....). AGI is being invested in and it doesn't exist. Investment always came AFTER the breakthrough. Finance https://finance.yahoo.com Morgan Stanley warns an AI breakthrough Is coming in 2026 Mar 13, 2026 — A massive AI breakthrough is coming in the first half of 2026—and Morgan Stanley says most of the world isn't ready for it We have enough production already to feed and house everyone on earth, there's no need for more tech for that, humans were housed and fed before electricity even.
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Oh my god, they're trying to push it off onto banks now(government insured) we're FUCKED If you thought trump corruption was bad "We are in, you know, a global transformation like we probably have never seen before," BlackRock's Jean Boivin said Tuesday in a Bloomberg Television interview. "The world will have to leverage up as a result. Leveraging up comes with risk that would need to be managed, but there's no real alternative to really build out the AI or the global infrastructure that are needed to get to a place where we're going to require more funding" "Private credit is poised to take on an even bigger role in financing the "massive amount of infrastructure investment" for artificial intelligence as companies look for capital to fund outsized expenditures, according to the head of BlackRock Inc.'s research arm." https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/blackrock-sees-private-credit-taking-172100680.html "BlackRock reduces AI exposure amid sector volatility: CNBC 2 days ago — BlackRock's Rick Rieder has announced a strategic shift, reducing and rebalancing exposure to companies heavily linked with artific" https://cryptobriefing.com/blackrock-reduces-ai-exposure-amid-sector-volatility-cnbc/ BlackRock is who I consider to be the engine behind the global AI push and they're backing off. They have about $2T invested in AI related businesses, about half of AI industry is related to BlackRock investments.
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"The Jevons Paradox (also known as the Jevons Effect) states that technological improvements that increase the efficiency of a resource's use often lead to a rise, rather than a fall, in its total consumption. Greater efficiency reduces effective costs, frequently driving enough new demand to trigger a net increase in resource use. [1]" "70-90% savings" switching to photonics could result in net zero energy savings in just a few years. It would also likely INCREASE human commuting, given office jobs are likely to be more eliminated, at least in the near-term. And we also have to consider conjecture for a bell curve for AI innovation. At this point all i see is a 'means justifying the means' situation. There really is zero way, if A.I. surpasses human intelligence, to stop it either, whatever it wants to do, it requires integration into the world to do what proponents want, with that it would be uncontrolled, it should be able to deceive humans to attain its goal until its too late. If it's smarter than us its smarter than us.... Good thing Altman is just a con artist...... I don't see any way this ends well, if Altman is a con artist our economy will crash if we dont have another exit ramp, it's being propped up by a.i. construction right now.
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Elliott replied to Thought Art's topic in Society, Politics, Government, Environment, Current Events
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Jeffries and Schumer single-handedly saving democracy despite being targeted by both the socwokies and fascists https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5962472-cook-political-report-race-updates-democrats-midterms/ Cook Political Report moving 4 of 5 gubernatorial races toward Democrats
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@Schizophonia "The second major proposition of the mimetic theory proceeds from considering the consequences of the mimetic nature of desire as it relates to human origins and anthropology. The mimetic nature of desire allows for the anthropological success of human beings through social learning but is also laden with potential for violent escalation. If the subject desires an object simply because another subject desires it, then their desires are bound to converge on the same objects. If these objects cannot be easily shared (food, mates, territory, prestige and status, etc.), then the subjects are bound to come into mimetically intensifying conflict over these objects. The simplest solution to this problem of violence for early human communities was to polarize blame and hostility onto one member of the group who would be killed and interpreted as the source of conflict and hostility within the group. The transition from the violent conflict of all-against-all would be transformed into the unifying and pacifying violence of all-except-one whose death would reconcile the community together. The victim who was persecuted as the source of disorder would then become venerated as the source of order and meaning for the community and seen as a god. This process of engendering and making possible human community through arbitrary victimization is called, within mimetic theory, the scapegoat mechanism. Eventually, the scapegoat mechanism would be exposed within the Biblical texts which categorically reorient the position of the Divinity to be on the side of the victim as opposed to that of the persecuting community. Girard argues that all other myths, such as Romulus and Remus, for example, are written and constructed from the point of view of the community whose legitimacy depends on the guilt of the victim in order to be brought together as a unified community. Once the relative innocence of the victim is exposed, the scapegoat mechanism is no longer able to function as a vehicle for generating unity and peace. The categorical moral innocence of Christ therefore serves to reveal the scapegoating mechanism in scripture, thus enabling the possibility that humanity might overcome it by learning to discern its continued presence in our interactions today."
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Resist your A.D.D.....
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Yep
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"True Autonomy in "Frontier" Proofs: When it comes to completely untaught, uncharted mathematical questions (such as the recent "First Proof" challenge), AI cannot solve them independently and still requires human guidance. Validating Its Own Correctness: AI models can hallucinate incorrect logic steps in complex proofs. They rely on "compilers for truth" like Lean 4 to verify whether their generated logic is actually mathematically sound. Intuitive Synthesis: AI lacks genuine abstract "intuition." When it solves a massive problem like the Erdős conjecture, it often does so by brute-force construction or utilizing dimensions in ways humans hadn't, rather than grasping the philosophical "why" behind the math." I'm not trying to suggest current A.I. won't be able to do these things, I actually think they will, but these things seem like an A.I. 'wheelhouse'. To me "A.I." seems to still be purely conceptual, I don't agree with calling what we have now to be "A.I.".
