Cryptocurrency Bottom

[Dodo]

This is not financial advice, the post includes my thoughts and analysis. 

After the Sam Bankman-Fried fiasco, the prices of cryptocurrencies tanked HARD. The bottom was reached and without a sound the trajectory has reversed and slowly but surely crypto is returning to its old self. 

I saw the bottom for bitcoin and called it as the chart painted a phoenix pattern (i will try to add images when im not on my phone)

Sadly I did not have the finances to take advantage of this absolute bottom low risk trade and here I am now, buying at higher prices, trying to catch the right timing.

4 days ago, or more, depending on when you read this, the price of Solana (an oversold altcoin) was continuing its downward movement as people were panic selling or trying to short it, but it was met by the 236 fibonacci support. I managed to take the low risk trade on high leverage and let it sit, now bursting through the bear's stops for the 4th day in a row. 

The bulls have won. 

Vitalik Buterin vouched for Solana while many others post FUD about it everywhere. But I put my money where Vitalik's mouth is. I am not trying to shill you the coin, just want to say it's my favourite and it is currently incredibly cheap still due to the massive SBF drops and now rises more than most other cryptos during the up moves. 

Here is a chart analysis which showed the Solana Diamond Bottom. It was perfect and caused by a tweet by Vitalik who said it's a good project.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SOLUSDT/vdCyXaDV-Solana-Diamond-Bottom-is-in/ 

Here is where I analysed Btc bottom and move to 20k+. People did not believe the fibonacci. 

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/GqxsbdZ4-Possible-bullish-move-to-20k-fib/ 

Here is where I predicted the drop to the recent bottom from when we were 40k, solidifying that the bears are done. 

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/SUZ5JYnb-BTC-Bearish-Mcdonalds-Pattern/ 

 

I have many more charts including UsDollar analysis which is very relevant to the crypto world. And yes, that one shows me bearish targets which is why crypto is so bullish right now.

Your move 

[integral]

Well done on that trade, the thing is every alt coin will pump as long as bitcoin keeps blowing forward. If bitcoin hits all time highs every alt coin will easily 10x from where they are right now. 50x if you purchased them when bitcoin was at 16k.

If this is the legendary bitcoin 100k bull run then there will come a bear market right after and every alt coin will tank 95% like it always does, make sure to get out at the top. 

To be safe if bitcoin hits 64k or 80k, I would sell all my positions. Because at the point there is more downside then upside and its no longer risk/reward reasonable to keep holding. 

Edited April 13 by integral

[Dodo]

6 hours ago, integral said:

Well done on that trade, the thing is every alt coin will pump as long as bitcoin keeps blowing forward. If bitcoin hits all time highs every alt coin will easily 10x from where they are right now. 50x if you purchased them when bitcoin was at 16k.

If this is the legendary bitcoin 100k bull run then there will come a bear market right after and every alt coin will tank 95% like it always does, make sure to get out at the top. 

To be safe if bitcoin hits 64k or 80k, I would sell all my positions. Because at the point there is more downside then upside and its no longer risk/reward reasonable to keep holding. 

Play with money you are willing to lose and forget them. 

You want to have the  crypto. People always try to predict the market, but thats impossible. 

If you try to sell the top, you might get fomoed back in and having to buy at insnane prices. 

You mention crypto always falls, but a other thing crypto always does is dwarf the previous all time high as everyone who put more money that they are willing to lose and is there for the profit and not to have the crypto, will sell after ath is pushed, but that will probably be only the beginning of an exponential move.

 

Trying to time the bottom and top are very hard tasks. 

I'd say buy low and never sell, just in case. Making sure you're not all in, and then you just let those eggs turn into dragons and possible help for your retirement or future kids. 

[integral]

[integral]

1 hour ago, Dodo said:

Play with money you are willing to lose and forget them. 

You want to have the  crypto. People always try to predict the market, but thats impossible. 

If you try to sell the top, you might get fomoed back in and having to buy at insnane prices. 

You mention crypto always falls, but a other thing crypto always does is dwarf the previous all time high as everyone who put more money that they are willing to lose and is there for the profit and not to have the crypto, will sell after ath is pushed, but that will probably be only the beginning of an exponential move.

Trying to time the bottom and top are very hard tasks. 

I'd say buy low and never sell, just in case. Making sure you're not all in, and then you just let those eggs turn into dragons and possible help for your retirement or future kids. 

I dont think its going to dwarf the last ATH in the same fasion, there is logarithmic growth to take into consideration, the top is maximum 100-120k for bitcoin and at that point the ALT coins will have there final pump and dump. Ethereum can hit 8-12k at best.

But time will make this prediction look foolish im sure. 

Right during bear markets accumulate over time every major dip for the next bull run and HOLD. 

Edited April 14 by integral

[Dodo]

33 minutes ago, integral said:

I dont think its going to dwarf the last ATH in the same fasion, there is logarithmic growth to take into consideration, the top is maximum 100-120k for bitcoin and at that point the ALT coins will have there final pump and dump. Ethereum can hit 8-12k at best.

But time will make this prediction look foolish im sure. 

Right during bear markets accumulate over time every major dip for the next bull run and HOLD. 

Yes indeed you can say numbers and predictions, but reality is those big players at those numbers will have to sell and then bigger players might appear or some news. 

Then those big players will have the hard task of getting back in... 

Best way to play it is just to take partial profits and always have a position going up no matter what. 

 

Hedging strategy is not to be underestimated if the chart suggests a possible top. 

Edited April 14 by Dodo

[Leo Gura]

12 hours ago, Dodo said:

I saw the bottom for bitcoin and called it as the chart painted a phoenix pattern

You are gambling.

You have no idea what any of these coins is actually worth.

This is the most obvious kind of self-deception.

Edited April 14 by Leo Gura

[Dodo]

2 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

You are gambling.

You have no idea what any of these coins is actually worth.

This is the most obvious kind of self-deception.

What they are worth in dollars is always a subjective issue. If the smart money value it, or if it is useful, it might be worth a lot of money in the future as there is a limited supply. 

While it can be seen as gambling, technical analysis gives you the possibility to enter on low risk areas where you risk a little for a potentially huge reward. 

Risk-reward is the name of the game, and any business includes risk and can be considered gambling. 

If done correctly and with the right timing, cryptocurrency trading can be very rewarding. 

From the 236 fibonacci retracement, you can risk a tiny percentage and give up if it goes lower, but usually smart money go in there and the price jumps, leaving you with a risk free trade, that you can exit at no loss if things turn south. 

 

I am not a big player, but I have the knowledge and chart experience so this recent trade turned 20 dollars into 250 dollars in just 5-6 days and I can now hold my "crypto crap" without risking a penny and it could easily turn into thousands and tens of thousands if my analysis of a new all time high are correct.  

 

I will leave it to the whales to fight up and down as it goes higher. I buy smart and forget. 

 

Edited April 14 by Dodo

[Dodo]

2 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

You are gambling.

You have no idea what any of these coins is actually worth.

This is the most obvious kind of self-deception.

About the bitcoin bottom it was even less risky than the current solana trade i am in, as it was way down and on a pattern that has a specific entry and exit based on sound technical analysis. 

The phoenix pattern played out, and slowly but surely bitcoin arose from the ashes and never returned. 

[TheAlchemist]

Crypto technical analysis is like astrology for gen-z men

[thepixelmonk]

6 minutes ago, TheAlchemist said:

Crypto technical analysis is like astrology for gen-z men

hahahahah 🤣

Edited April 14 by thepixelmonk

[something_else]

A lot of people delude themselves that they know how to invest in crypto when really they just got lucky. I don't know if that applies to you, but by default when I see people really excited and overconfident about crypto it raises red flags to me that they got lucky. The fluctuation of crypto is so unpredictable that you can never be that confident if you are also accurately assessing risk.

If you have a bunch of money to spare, maybe it's worth putting some on some speculative crypto trade. But unless you are detached enough, and have enough money, you're more likely to become a gambling addict.

[integral]

Its not pure gambling, when the price drops to the levels indicated on the chart I posted there is more upside then downside meaning there is space for it to go up where most of the people who would sell already have and the rest are holding long term, so your odds of being right for a long term 6 month trade is high, the lower the time frame the worse your odds are.

The true value of 99% of these coins is 0, while the rest that have any real value are 10x to high then they should be, but if we measure value as a function of popularity these coins will keep pumping and dumping for a long time to come. 

Edited April 14 by integral

[Dodo]

1 hour ago, something_else said:

A lot of people delude themselves that they know how to invest in crypto when really they just got lucky. I don't know if that applies to you, but by default when I see people really excited and overconfident about crypto it raises red flags to me that they got lucky. The fluctuation of crypto is so unpredictable that you can never be that confident if you are also accurately assessing risk.

If you have a bunch of money to spare, maybe it's worth putting some on some speculative crypto trade. But unless you are detached enough, and have enough money, you're more likely to become a gambling addict.

You got to make your own luck. Green indicates what happened after the analysis was posted, judge for yourself.

You can get lucky 1 time, right? 

In Summary, crypto plays by the book.

Small timeframe swings and moves are often unpredictable, but when it comes to setups, TA will help you know when its time to take the risk and when its not. 

Edited April 14 by Dodo

[universe]

On 14/04/2023 at 0:43 AM, Dodo said:

The bulls have won. 

Your move 

This is the way

[integral]

@Dodo I use support resistance levels instead of fib. Im not seeing the difference? 

[Dodo]

40 minutes ago, integral said:

@Dodo I use support resistance levels instead of fib. Im not seeing the difference? 

fib levels ARE supports and resistance, just like apples are fruits.

there are pivot points, bollinger bands, trendlines etc, but fib is important to catch it during the fall, without even having a structure on the left that tells you its a support, as if u catch the knife midair. 

ive seen in crypto 382 usually doesnt work for long, but the 236 is more reliable for absolute bottoms as you can see as well from my BTC to 20k analysis, when i posted it it was on 382 and later it went and tested 236 before the move to 20k and later higher. Exact same happened on my Solana trade.

It seems the algorithm / whales like to take out high lever traders who fomo buy 382 and the rise from 382, and then when they get taken out they release their manipulation and price naturally floats up as enough stops have been taken and now its time to take the other guys  

 

Edited April 15 by Dodo

[Leo Gura]

Obviously the whole economy has bottomed out in the last year. That's what a crash is. It doesn't require technical analysis to know this. The problem is that you didn't predict it.

Edited April 15 by Leo Gura

[Dodo]

6 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Obviously the whole economy has bottomed out in the last year. That's what a crash is. It doesn't require technical analysis to know this. The problem is that you didn't predict it.

You never know for certain. But if you see the last image of my above post , for crypto I did actually predict the exact bottom a year in advance , the line I drew was a measured target if the head and shoulders pattern. It took one year to reach it and once it did, it reversed. 

Ofcourse i know that now in hindsight, but at the same time the analysis was slick. 

Many use fundamental analysis or anything else but to me technical is the only thing needed, especially for crypto.

Anything that happens on the fundamental level gets reflected on the chart as patterns and signals, so I dont have to really pay attention to news or anything else : that was actually an advice I got from a professional technical analyst many many years ago.

When it comes to entries and when to take a long the only thing needed for me is technical as nothing is hidden on the chart and you can see where a low risk trade presents itself.

I dont trade stocks or commodities even though i also have analysis prediction on the gold rush we are experiencing that is playing out rather well. The lower target did not get reached for Gold, but it did have a down impulse and is now following the projection nicely.

 

Edited April 15 by Dodo

[Dodo]

Another dip, another fibonacci. 

236 retracement successfully holds the price after a week of dumping caused by the usdollar attempted double bottom. 

I have no faith in the dollar and believe its all hollywood so I added some more to my solana position as the price reacted with 236. 

The coming week should be interesting. I am long here as fibonacci is working in our favor. This is someone's chance to enter low risk if they want to join the bull run. 

There is always risk, but buying near a fibonacci retracement is an educated risk that is worth taking. 

Play with money you are willing to lose and play smart. You don't need to gamble if you have the knowledge and if you buy during correction where the losses already happened and are likely to reverse.

Ideal target of solana is the 1.618 at 30 dollars from here. That would be a good profit taking zone, but i will hold my positions if we reach it for the long term as i believe my entry will be safe from any bear attempts from 30. 

Edited April 23 by Dodo