Understanding Russia & Putin

[Ryan_047]

@SeaMonster I see what you are saying, but China attacking Taiwan is merely a supposition for now. And if they do (which I personally think they will at the first sign of major weakness from the US) I highly doubt that they will attack just because of a declining demographic. It's way more complex than that. The same goes for Russia. If Putin really was concerned with babies, he could've forced the Duma to adopt policies in that sense, as China has done. But as far as I know, no major steps were taken in that direction. 

I mean, it's so counter intuitive (in a bad sense). Invading another country will cause those people to hate you and flee. That hatred will stay with them for decades to come, and they won't feel safe to have (too many) children, which is exactly (supposedly) why you are conquering them.  

5 minutes ago, SeaMonster said:

The bigger European countries like France and Germany have had a massive influx of foreigners (North Africa/Middle East) over the last few decades, if you follow the news

Well yeah, I know. But still doesn't make up for the deficit, as I've said in my previous comment. Not to mention that those people suffer from discrimination and mild racism, and they are not actually what Germany and France are mainly looking for, which are skilled workers in the service sector (IT, economics and the like). Also France has taken steps in the direction of becoming a superpower again with Macron. 

[SeaMonster]

31 minutes ago, Ryan_047 said:

I see what you are saying, but China attacking Taiwan is merely a supposition for now. And if they do (which I personally think they will at the first sign of major weakness from the US) I highly doubt that they will attack just because of a declining demographic. It's way more complex than that. The same goes for Russia. If Putin really was concerned with babies, he could've forced the Duma to adopt policies in that sense, as China has done. But as far as I know, no major steps were taken in that direction. 

Well, it's a supposition but an easy one to make, considering what China has done on Hong Kong and their stated policy on Taiwan.  You're not going out on a limb there.

Quote

If Putin really was concerned with babies,

But they HAVE adopted those policies to the extent they can afford to.  It worked for a year and then reverted back.  They are seeing that it's not working and there is panic in those capitals.

The truth is, once your population is relatively wealthy and educated, fertility drops below replacement and it's very hard to avoid a population death spiral without major immigration.  The only country that has been able to do that is Israel (perhaps a special situation because of a sharpened sense of do-or-die.)

What experience is showing is that it's a hell of a lot easier to get people to have less kids than more kids, once they get used to the less sacrificing lifestyle.  They get spoiled.

Quote

I mean, it's so counter intuitive (in a bad sense). Invading another country will cause those people to hate you and flee. That hatred will stay with them for decades to come, and they won't feel safe to have (too many) children, which is exactly (supposedly) why you are conquering them.  

You have to understand the desperation involved, and then it all makes sense.  What choices do they have? 

Russia and China's tragic flaw is an extreme sense of self-importance - of national greatness.  China is the "middle kingdom" between heaven and earth.  Russia is the empire of old, of Peter The Great and Soviet Union.  Their national psyche is ill-suited to acceptance of being some backwater.  So this puts them in a position of desperate and counterproductive moves.  

Now Russia is considerably more reckless than China, but the ultimate result is the same.  China cannot accept immigrants to the same degree as the West, for many reasons.  Sure, they can pick off some South Asian or North Korean brides for their men, but it's not close to the West. And their people are not responding to "have 3 kids if you want."  They are like "waaaaah too xpensive."

So what would you do? Now maybe they will simply not do anything for now, like I said.  They are a cautious people.  Maybe they think they can outcompete the West on technology and so they can avoid the worst consequences of a population decline. (Certainly Russia has no chance of doing that.)  But whatever the solution, this issue of fertility is very much a major driver of all strategic choices going forward - rest assured.

Edited April 9, 2022 by SeaMonster

[Leo Gura]

People posting material or videos on this forum which deny Russian war crimes will be issued warning points and/or banned.

[Ryan_047]

@SeaMonster I see, I understand your perspective now. I agree with you to a certain extent. Your initial comment on this subject was a bit too void of details and I got confused as to why you think demographics is so important.

Yes, it's inevitable that citizens in developed countries will stop having so many kids (2 is the average I think). This is because of financial reasons, but also because people genuinely don't want more children. Less is more kind of mentality. You know where I'm going with this. Also fear of the future plays a part. But, after the inevitable decline there is an inevitable plateau in which the population growth will stabilize and broadly speaking, it won't increase/decrease anymore. So, this demographic issue is rather medium term and I personally don't see it as a decisive factor in invading another country. I think their primary reasons are of resources/finances, security, local/global hegemony and as you've said, maintaining the image of a powerful, important country. 

Yeah, they are desperate, but somehow their disadvantage is also West's disadvantage as both Europe and USA/Canada suffer from demographic decline. To be fair Russia suffers this to a larger extent, but their goal was not to annex Ukraine and add a declining population of 40 million to their own, but to install a puppet regime loyal to the Kremlin, as there was before the Euro-Maydan protests.

I'm still a bit confused, do you think demographics is the primary issue that led to the aggression? I know it's kind of nerdy, but what percentage would you assign to this issue as a decisive factor for invading Ukraine? In my mind is rather small, but to be honest, I never thought deeply about this. 

 

[caelanb]

Here's an interesting video of four body language experts breakdown the body language of Putin during an interview and speech. The thumbnail is a little clickbaity (like many of those found on the youtube channel), but still a good watch to get insight into Putin.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VCXGQzuaNic

Edited April 9, 2022 by caelanb

[pedro23]

1 hour ago, caelanb said:

Here's an interesting video of four body language experts breakdown the body language of Putin during an interview and speech. The thumbnail is a little clickbaity (like many of those found on the youtube channel), but still a good watch to get insight into Putin.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VCXGQzuaNic

Very good video indeed, thank you! 

 

[SeaMonster]

4 hours ago, Ryan_047 said:

But, after the inevitable decline there is an inevitable plateau in which the population growth will stabilize and broadly speaking, it won't increase/decrease anymore. So, this demographic issue is rather medium term and I personally don't see it as a decisive factor in invading another country. I think their primary reasons are of resources/finances, security, local/global hegemony and as you've said, maintaining the image of a powerful, important country. 

But that's not what's projected to happen.  If trends continue, below replacement fertility will become the norm and at some point the total global population will decrease.

Now, let me say that what's projected to happen is not necessarily what WILL and MUST happen.  There may be some unforeseen spiritual awakening and cultural shift that reverses this.  But strategic planners in great powers don't strategize on the basis of what may happen if we luck out, they strategize on the basis of what is most likely to happen given what we know now.

 

4 hours ago, Ryan_047 said:

Yeah, they are desperate, but somehow their disadvantage is also West's disadvantage as both Europe and USA/Canada suffer from demographic decline. To be fair Russia suffers this to a larger extent, but their goal was not to annex Ukraine and add a declining population of 40 million to their own, but to install a puppet regime loyal to the Kremlin, as there was before the Euro-Maydan protests.

 

4 hours ago, Ryan_047 said:

I'm still a bit confused, do you think demographics is the primary issue that led to the aggression? I know it's kind of nerdy, but what percentage would you assign to this issue as a decisive factor for invading Ukraine? In my mind is rather small, but to be honest, I never thought deeply about this. 

Let me answer both of these in one part.

There are immediate and short-term goals and there are strategic goals.  If you're not addressing strategic goals, satisfying your immediate goals won't matter at some point.

Russia's population is on track to decline.  Their demographers have been ringing the alarm.  Putin is aware of this and the idea pains him greatly.  This is an open secret.

What happens when your population declines and your technological progress is insufficient? Your economy contracts, there's a smaller workforce, your population is older, so more of your economy has to go towards supporting the elderly in pensions and healthcare, etc.  Less young people for your armed forces.  Quality of life goes down.  You are vulnerable for picking by your more fertile or growing neighbors (Russia has a huge land mass.)

Difference between Russia and The West: (1) can't compete with the West for immigrants - less attractive destination; (2) not as technologically capable of compensating economically.  You need to automate at a level where you are compensating for the lost labor force.  This cannot be done solely by importing technology.  You need to produce some of your own technology.

So to sum up, it is the primary strategic i.e long term goal.  Are there shorter term goals that may fold into it? Sure.  But any action has to address the strategic goal.  Otherwise you are self-sabotaging.

And the cherry on top, just to prove that I haven't been pulling stuff out of my ass:

400,000 Ukrainians Forcibly Moved to Russia, Ukraine Says | Time

https://time.com/6160765/ukrainians-taken-to-russia/

Literally stealing people.

Edited April 9, 2022 by SeaMonster

[Ryan_047]

 

[Bobby_2021]

NATO should stop expanding as Putin wanted to.

What is the point of it expanding in the first place?

They do no have any enemy other than Russia. So don't go near it and there won't be any wars. Simple.

But now Finland & Sweden is showing interest to join NATO. Russia is furious. NATO now has an enemy,else their existence is pointless.

Now the American Industrial Complex can profit in billions as more countries upgrade their military. 

For those whose interest is to stop the war as soon as possible, here is the course of action.

Declare Putin as a winner & Stop NATO expansion. This will be a win for the world, if their interests is to stop the war. 

This is adding fuel to the fire if the NATO hell bend on fucking up Russia.

[Yog]

1 hour ago, Bobby_2021 said:

NATO now has an enemy,else their existence is pointless.

Maybe this was the point all along.

[Bobby_2021]

1 hour ago, Yog said:

Maybe this was the point all along.

The west and NATO do not honor Russia as an old super power. They are literally like

 "lol haha back off Russia, I am your daddy"

This just creates a bigger North Korea like state who constantly keeps the whole world in tension. 

The correct solution is to give Putin the impression that he won.

And accept his demands that are perfectly rational.

(If Ukraine joins NATO, any minor border disputes, which is common in many countries quickly turns into a conflict between two super powers.)

Benefits for NATO for continuing the war:

1) The west can assert it's global dominance. It can still act as the savior of the world instead of serving mutual interests.

There was practically no reason for expanding NATO before the Ukraine Invasion. Now they have a reason.

2) The military industrial complex will rake billions in profit. This is the money that could have been invested into universal health care or free college. Not only that the whole reinvests more into military and war instead of welfare for it's own citizens.

Edited April 11, 2022 by Bobby_2021

[T_i_m]

I agree. Putin ignited the flame, US and NATO are feeding it. Ukraine is burning. Putin and NATO are warming their hands, Ukraine is burning.

There was even  a lovely conspiracy theory that Putin is an agent of western governments and he was recruited while he was serving in Germany to destroy Russia and nearby countries. It hardly has anything to do with reality but judging by Putin's and NATO actions it makes sense.

[Husseinisdoingfine]

 

[Fleetinglife]

11 hours ago, Husseinisdoingfine said:

 

This was later claimed to be a Ukrainian T-64BV tank on the video approaching the Ukrainian soldiers and a a tragic mishap case/incident of Ukrainian friendly fire, with the Ukrainian tank operator captured on the video misidentifying those Ukrainian soldiers on the ground as Russian troops viewed from a slight distance. 

This is one of the unintended indirect consequences and effects broken down and spiralling down on the level of a chance of individual error and mistake happening of giving reprisal instant shot to kill orders of allegedly spotted RF soldiers, even when not posing an immediate threat, on sight, and of harsh eye for an eye reprisals treatment of captured Russian POWs. 

Edited April 13, 2022 by Fleetinglife

[Egoisego]

The only ones you can respect on this forum at this point are the trolls. You others should get the fucking point now. You have joined a shitty cult which is the anti-thesis to an openmind. ANd your great but also shitty leader will never take you anywhere.

Stop sitting here and be living irony o true openmindness. What about this: Start all over again and stop searching for some later stage. You are as fucking lousy as your leader was 8 years ago and then he clearly stated that the journey is the important thing and not the final stage. Ironcially 8 years later. 

Edited April 13, 2022 by Egoisego

[D2sage]

Russian military killing civilians and kids are disgusting.

[T_i_m]

3 hours ago, Fleetinglife said:

This was later claimed to be a Ukrainian T-64BV tank on the video approaching the Ukrainian soldiers and a a tragic mishap case/incident of Ukrainian friendly fire, with the Ukrainian tank operator captured on the video misidentifying those Ukrainian soldiers on the ground as Russian troops viewed from a slight distance. 

This is one of the unintended indirect consequences and effects broken down and spiralling down on the level of a chance of individual error and mistake happening of giving reprisal instant shot to kill orders of allegedly spotted RF soldiers, even when not posing an immediate threat, on sight, and of harsh eye for an eye reprisals treatment of captured Russian POWs. 

So Russian propaganda was right  about Ukrainians just shooting and shelling  each other

[T_i_m]

6 hours ago, D2sage said:

Russian military killing civilians and kids are disgusting.

Happens in any war, it's what humans do

Edited April 13, 2022 by T_i_m

[Frylock]

I've hated Putin and Russia since this war began and all of the atrocities that have been committed to the Ukraine people.

But, I'll admit that I've been reactionary. Atrocities are committed everywhere in all kinds of forms, even in the west. Putin and Russia are certainly no saints and are acting from a low consciousness agenda, but I have made an effort to understand them better.

[no_name]

On 2022-04-13 at 11:48 AM, T_i_m said:

Happens in any war, it's what humans do

27 minutes ago, Frylock said:

Atrocities are committed everywhere in all kinds of forms, even in the west.

I hope you’re aware that this is exactly a part of Putin’s propaganda campaign, to diverge attention from Russia and all the war crimes it’s committing and being the aggressor, to the US or NATO being hypocratics and aggressors. And it’s working really well. While Russian soldiers are raping children, women, seniors, torturing and murdering civilians, even stealing used underwear and washing machines, the world is saying “but NATO”..

It’s kinda like when an abusive husband beats up his wife every night, and then says, to whoever calls it out, hey I saw you yelling at your wife too, that’s just what marriages are like, why do even you care so much about ME beating up my wife, what about all the other wives being beat up?

Edited April 14, 2022 by no_name