Onecirrus

Counter-intuitively, we MUST embrace Russia!!!

28 posts in this topic

The rising tension between NATO and Russia will end civilization if strategic decisions aren't made. I understand the animosity toward Russia after this unprovoked attack on the sovereignty of the people of Ukraine, but we can't let our emotions dictate our geo-politics, we NEED to eliminate all possibility for a third world war.  I propose the west do everything in its power to holistically weave Russia into the rest of Europe, this includes NATO membership, EU membership, open trade, supply-chain linkage, foreign investment and venture capital, open borders, and generally anything that will meteorically stimulate the Russian economy. The key here is to make Russia so rich, and so politically and financially interdependent on its neighbors, that the idea of Russia invading its neighbors becomes as absurd as France invading Germany. With a standard of living as high as western Europe, Russia could liberalize and the collective spiral dynamic stage of its people and leaders will begin to lean more toward stage-orange and later even Green. This could also lead to effects such as denuclearization, less corruption, pro-democracy populism, better education, less nationalism, less ethnocentrism, less debt, and over all, less reasons to behave like a nineteenth century empire!

This will probably take decades of diplomacy, but what are the alternatives? War with Russia?

 

 

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I don't advocate for any of these, I don't see a solution I would personally want yet.
However the alternatives I can see are:

Ukraine being given Nato membership or defensive treaties but being disarmed.
Ukraine being given free elections but being disarmed.
Ukraine being split up into smaller states. Some democratic, some not.
A Cold War with Russia
A Berlin Wall type of situation.
A Hot Convential War with Russia
This conflict being done and that's finally it. Unlikely now.
A long strategy: Europe Being less reliant on Russian Gas and isolating them to accelerate the countries decline until eventually their weapons no longer pose the same threat years from now.
Nuclear War
Assassinating Putin at some point quietly 10 years from now.
A move within russia to topple Putin. Which people say is impossible but it depends how much the rich in that country are hurting because of his actions here.
Watching while other smaller states are gobbled up by his territorial ambitions.

That's all I have to mind, as I say I don't advocate for any of these.

I don't see a possibility of Russia and Europe coming together after this. Not while Putin is the leader of that country. What he has done is, eliminate many options he had and fix himself on a somewhat predictable course toward war or isolation. You will be trying to tell people who have just seen their friends and family die, that we now need to be friends with the man who did it. Maybe you can do that when they rebuild after this is done, 5 or ten years after the war but anything you say will be insensitive at best and drowned out by understandable hatred and grief at worst.

This hasn't sunk in yet for most people, and when it does a lot of hatred will come Russia's way. I talked to someone who dislikes america over here for example and he had completely flipped his position. There will be many years after this has been finished, a rightful hated and anger towards Putin and Russia.

 

Edited by BlueOak

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@Onecirrus This is the type of orientation and thinking is what is required for today. I'm not suggesting I agree with the material and points you have pointed to, as I would have to give it more thought and contemplation, but rather, this is the type of radical movement which is required. 

Edited by Johnny Galt

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This is exactly what I've always wanted from Russia... Integration with the rest of Europe. And someone strong enough to kick USA's butt (diplomatically) when needed, in a strong cooperative relationship. 

How you do that? Get rid of Putin, his gang of fascist oligarchs, and the oligarchic groups that are waiting for Putin to fall. In other words, introduce real democracy. 

Though these are all dreams. 

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I'm seeing many citizens of Russia who do not want this war either. The people in all countries need to unite as one; we are done with this

I'd follow this account, she tends to post lots of on the ground footage. Here's some of what's happening in Russia. Any Russians here on this platform? I'd love to hear your thoughts!

 

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What America needs to do right now is something Americans aren't very good at. We need to shut our mouths and let Russia/Ukraine work their shit out themselves. 

We don't have to pick either side. Being non-interventionist isn't pro-Russia or pro-Ukraine, it's pro-American.

There are like 200 countries in the world, and at any given time about 50 of them are at war. There's almost always a clear "right" and "wrong" side in every conflict. Why aren't we jumping up and down about those conflicts? Why don't we care about conflicts going on in central Africa right now? What is so special about Russia/Ukraine?

Don't get me wrong and think I'm pro-Putin either. Every politician is just a thug willing to use power to get what they want, Putin is no exception.

Just relax. The media and people in charge don't want you to realize how INSIGNIFICANT this whole situation is. It's significant to a Ukrainian or Russian, but as an American this means fuck all to you. Why is this forum blowing up with posts from people who probably didn't know what/where Ukraine was last month.

How did getting involved with Afghanistan or Iraq work out? Did that benefit either the US or the people living there? Ukraine/Russia has no benefit to the American people. This also isn't going to become WW3 unless someone does something really, really stupid. The best way to avoid WW3 is to stay out of it.

Why do we owe Ukraine anything? How is Ukraine our ally? Does the US have any formal agreements with Ukraine? Ukraine is not our friend. Ukraine is not a democracy. The president of Ukraine has had his political opponents arrested simply because they were his opponents.

Sanctioning Russia just makes them more powerful. Russia has no economic power when oil is below about $70/barrel. But paradoxically, you sanction them and cause the price of their oil to skyrocket, and their power actually goes up. Someone is still going to be buying that oil even without a pipeline.

Just stay out of it. The world isn't going to end if Russia takes a little piece of Ukraine. We have much bigger problems to deal with at home.


O.o Minions for Depart Forum December. See you next year, maybe.

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Just now, Yarco said:

What America needs to do right now is something Americans aren't very good at. We need to shut our mouths and let Russia/Ukraine work their shit out themselves. 

We don't have to pick either side. Being non-interventionist isn't pro-Russia or pro-Ukraine, it's pro-American.

There are like 200 countries in the world, and at any given time about 50 of them are at war. There's almost always a clear "right" and "wrong" side in every conflict. Why aren't we jumping up and down about those conflicts? Why don't we care about conflicts going on in central Africa right now? What is so special about Russia/Ukraine?

Don't get me wrong and think I'm pro-Putin either. Every politician is just a thug willing to use power to get what they want, Putin is no exception.

Just relax. The media and people in charge don't want you to realize how INSIGNIFICANT this whole situation is. It's significant to a Ukrainian or Russian, but as an American this means fuck all to you. Why is this forum blowing up with posts from people who probably didn't know what/where Ukraine was last month.

How did getting involved with Afghanistan or Iraq work out? Did that benefit either the US or the people living there? Ukraine/Russia has no benefit to the American people. This also isn't going to become WW3 unless someone does something really, really stupid. The best way to avoid WW3 is to stay out of it.

Why do we owe Ukraine anything? How is Ukraine our ally? Does the US have any formal agreements with Ukraine? Ukraine is not our friend. Ukraine is not a democracy. The president of Ukraine has had his political opponents arrested simply because they were his opponents.

Sanctioning Russia just makes them more powerful. Russia has no economic power when oil is below about $70/barrel. But paradoxically, you sanction them and cause the price of their oil to skyrocket, and their power actually goes up. Someone is still going to be buying that oil even without a pipeline.

Just stay out of it. The world isn't going to end if Russia takes a little piece of Ukraine. We have much bigger problems to deal with at home.

you basically started this ish when you told the Ukraine they can join the EU in 2014 or whatever

also with NATO expansionism

now you want to not pick a side?  :/

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yes, putin is a demon, not like san obama who destroyed libya and sent it to a pre-medieval stage

a little equanimity please

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6 minutes ago, Yarco said:

Why don't we care about conflicts going on in central Africa right now? What is so special about Russia/Ukraine?

Just stay out of it. The world isn't going to end if Russia takes a little piece of Ukraine. We have much bigger problems to deal with at home.

Poland and Romania border Ukraine and wars don't respect lines on a map. To take your own words: This is a potential start of WW3 and is a possible end to the world. Granted its unlikely but to not take the situation seriously and leave it completely up to chance is irresponsible. One of the reasons we ended up here is because Europe were not strong and unified in their responses, and importantly their military or their strategic goals.

If countries can just take whatever they want, invade wherever they want, that leads us back to an unstable world and a more dangerous one. Not to mention the human cost, the economic instability, the refugee's. With the weapons countries now have at their disposal such a scenario does lead to the end of world at some point or more likely regional use of nuclear weapons. I remember a respect expert on nuclear weapons stating there was an even chance that the world would see some sort of regional nuclear war. These kinds of things are worth attention and measured responses to them to see they never reach that point.

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1 hour ago, Dryas said:

Same energy

 

Wow that was cringe.


 

 

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1 hour ago, PurpleTree said:

you basically started this ish when you told the Ukraine they can join the EU in 2014 or whatever

also with NATO expansionism

now you want to not pick a side?  :/

sunk cost fallacy

1 hour ago, BlueOak said:

Poland and Romania border Ukraine and wars don't respect lines on a map.

They respect power and consequences. Plus Russia has no claim to Poland or Romania or desire to kick that beehive. Putin hasn't lost his mind, trying to take back the entire former USSR would be a suicide mission.

1 hour ago, BlueOak said:

To take your own words: This is a potential start of WW3 and is a possible end to the world.

That's not my words, I said the opposite

1 hour ago, BlueOak said:

If countries can just take whatever they want, invade wherever they want, that leads us back to an unstable world and a more dangerous one. Not to mention the human cost, the economic instability, the refugee's.

That's not something to "go back to", the world has always been that way. You just happened to be born and grew up in an extremely rare time of peace and prosperity. Time to buckle up, because the rest of your life is probably going to be hell in comparison. Instability and danger is the rule, not the exception.

We never had true stability, it just takes a while for the inequality to bubble up and for people to take action. If you try to knock down every country that tries something like this, you'll be playing whack-a-mole forever. Plus it's like bottling the pressure back up, it'll just explode even worse in the future.


O.o Minions for Depart Forum December. See you next year, maybe.

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2 hours ago, Dryas said:

Same energy

 

Personally I didn't find it cringe. She is saying that the outcome would have been radically different with different parenting. 

It seems Putin has normalized violence. 

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2 hours ago, Yarco said:

They respect power and consequences. Plus Russia has no claim to Poland or Romania or desire to kick that beehive. Putin hasn't lost his mind, trying to take back the entire former USSR would be a suicide mission.

That's not my words, I said the opposite

That's not something to "go back to", the world has always been that way. You just happened to be born and grew up in an extremely rare time of peace and prosperity. Time to buckle up, because the rest of your life is probably going to be hell in comparison. Instability and danger is the rule, not the exception.

We never had true stability, it just takes a while for the inequality to bubble up and for people to take action. If you try to knock down every country that tries something like this, you'll be playing whack-a-mole forever. Plus it's like bottling the pressure back up, it'll just explode even worse in the future.

Its not about claim its about how wars work. They are never limited to a specific region or area, they can often spill out into neighboring countries. Both in terms of refugees, foreign fighters and military or non military aid. Things destabalize and border incidents happen. It just takes one missile or bomb to go astray, and we have an incident. There are reports of foreign fighters already assisting Ukraine unofficially. This is a hard border with Nato that doesn't require officially sanctioned action to cause escalation into a wider war. 

While I'll say periods of peace are longer than periods of war. On stability I've been alive 40 years+ and the generations before me after WW2 also enjoyed stability. Stability doesn't mean peace. I've seen wars come and go, on top of that I was born in the times of troubles in the UK.

This isn't whack-a-mole this is a large nuclear power and a large nuclear alliance of powers. All with a large amount of manpower and resources.. That's why its different to your earlier examples of African nations or regional conflict. Its changing the international order you've dismissed as rare. Well if its rare then its worth hanging on to, because so far its meant I've never lived in fear of being nuked, or seeing people I cared about die. 

War changes things globally. Nationalism rises, war budgets rise, readinesses rises, other nations take it as a cue to fight their own wars or use it as an opportunity. People suffer from economic downturns, and recessions, groups radicalize and people die. Each and every time this happens we should be concerned, and 'buckle up'. I always have done and I've done every small thing I can to make people aware of the repercussions of each I've seen.

There are better ways to release pressure than invading other countries.

*Also the Russian Empire does have claim to much of eastern Europe, which is why that rhetoric was notable and dangerous.

Edited by BlueOak

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“You don’t have problems; you are the problem.”

– Swami Chinmayananda

Namaste ? ?

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