Will there be a war with China?

[Leo Gura]

49 minutes ago, alpha_ulrich said:

Guys, can someone please explain to me if a war breaks out, how will India play a role?!

Sadhguru will say; "Isn't it? Yes or no."

[Hello from Russia]

16 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Sadhguru will say; "Isn't it? Yes or no."

[Endangered-EGO]

On 04/09/2021 at 1:46 AM, Willie said:

Did you ask where she heard it?

Perhaps. What are the arguments for Chinese invasion?

@Willie China is not going to invade with an army, they are just going to buy the politicians and imprison the protesters.

Might take a decade though.

Taiwan is currently on high alert and will probably retaliate every single attack. Basically freedom by threat of kamikaze.

[Willie]

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/taiwan-scrambles-jets-against-renewed-chinese-military-activity-2021-09-05/

I dunno, man. That doesn’t look good.

[Willie]

36 minutes ago, modmyth said:

I have never seen any evidence or suggestion that China is interested in starting a war. This seems to me that people are projecting the imperialist history/ bias of their own country (especially the U.S. onto China) plus a whole lot of fear and anxiety. Although much emphasis has been put on how China has apparently changed at its cultural core because modernism, industrialization, globalization, etc., China tends to view itself fundamentally as a monolithic, conservative culture spanning back thousands of years (despite any exceptions to this, including ethnic and cultural diversity which has been a constant project of the government to keep it under wraps, but in no way is this a modern phenomenon).

They are too ethnocentric at the root but in such a secure way that I think people from smaller countries that had to fight for their survival with other countries, or from cultures that had much more of an imperialistic/ conquering drive... I think people have trouble relating to what this means at a deeper level of security in a nation's psyche. There might be insecurity about their level of modernization on a global scale; that's a somewhat separate issue.

With the exception of Taiwan/ Tibet, of course.

Things that China has cared about for centuries or millennia:

Their borders on an extremely obsessive level. To my awareness, China is too preoccupied with China to care about others in the exact way that they think others are caring about them. Most their behaviour is reactive/ defensive in nature (which does relate to their particular brand of conservatism) IMO.

And also there is an obsessive preoccupation with getting "infected" with foreign ideas because there has been a poor track record with it historically, at times, plus there is some natural propensity towards this anyways (i.e. features of a deeply monolithic, conservative culture, or one that strives towards monolithism). But to a level that arguably really is paranoia. In no way does this specifically originate with communism.

Historically speaking, it's just that other cultures with these sorts of aggressive conservation policies were usually 1) much smaller 2) got wiped out sooner rather than later for the most part because they got conquered and/or they couldn't adapt culturally and technologically.

The fact that Taiwan is included in that image labeled “China” is the crux of the issue. Taiwan has a more progressive democratic government. They split from the ideology of the mainland with their own constitution in the late 1940s. Does this constitute independence or not?

Edited September 6, 2021 by Willie

[Stovo]

On 9/4/2021 at 6:15 PM, Leo Gura said:

Of course it's a very mixed bag.

But I don't think what China is doing is sustainable. People will demand their rights and freedoms at some point.

Fighting capitalism is very tricky. I worry that China will go about it in a corrupt way, fighting only those forms of capitalism that serve to consolidate power for the greedy party elite. This has always been the problem with communism/socialism. The party members are full of shit and are as greedy as the worst capitalists but cloak themselves in socialist ideology, which is less honest than capitalism.

Their actions are not based on truthfulness, which always boomerangs. You cannot fake your level of development. It will backfire.

Ah gotcha, we have roughly similar views in that case. 

My base case is that the system is only sustainable given high economic growth, which obviously they cannot sustain forever. 

[Stovo]

7 hours ago, modmyth said:

This really isn't my area of specialty, but both Taiwan and China think of themselves as the real China, to my awareness. And that's why Taiwan is officially called "The Republic of China". Mainland China disagrees, of course, since it used to belong to the Han Chinese some handful of centuries and refuses to recognize their national sovereignty. I guess that goes both ways though. Even if this isn't the actual main state of things at the moment, they've been landlocked in this position for years and years, and mainland China has been keeping its eye on getting Taiwan back all this time.

I think Taiwan also sees itself as the legitimate heir of Sun Yat-Sen's ideas as well.

Officially Taiwan does lay claim to the entirety of mainland China, plus sections of other countries such as Mongolia. In practice, Taiwanese people have more of a Taiwanese identity rather than a Chinese one nowadays. 

8 hours ago, modmyth said:

I have never seen any evidence or suggestion that China is interested in starting a war. This seems to me that people are projecting the imperialist history/ bias of their own country (especially the U.S. onto China) plus a whole lot of fear and anxiety.

You are right, of course, that fear and anxiety affect how people think about China, but it would be foolish to suggest that they wouldn't try to expand their influence as much as possible. This is how power works. 

[Blackhawk]

The war will probably happen one day. And then we will all be fucked, world war 3.

But Taiwan should stop claiming the entire freaking China. It's just stupid. Taiwan will never get mainland China. Let it go. Declare your island as a separate independent country. Then the rest of the world can acknowledge Taiwan as a country too.

[Stovo]

6 hours ago, Blackhawk said:

But Taiwan should stop claiming the entire freaking China. It's just stupid. Taiwan will never get mainland China. Let it go. Declare your island as a separate independent country. Then the rest of the world can acknowledge Taiwan as a country too.

@Blackhawk The situation is WAY more complicated than you currently understand. 

 

[Roy]

12 hours ago, Blackhawk said:

The war will probably happen one day. And then we will all be fucked, world war 3.

A nuclear war won't happen unless there is some kind of freak accident that escalates out of control. And a large scale conventional war is simply no longer a possibility since 1945 and nuclear weapons exist, period. So the thought doesn't even need to be entertained.

Even the largest, most corrupt, selfish egos in the world will exercise caution with their fingers on a trigger like that. If there is one thing the ego won't accept it's utter annihilation of itself or the playground it prances on 

[Blackhawk]

1 hour ago, Roy said:

A nuclear war won't happen unless there is some kind of freak accident that escalates out of control. And a large scale conventional war is simply no longer a possibility since 1945 and nuclear weapons exist, period. So the thought doesn't even need to be entertained.

Even the largest, most corrupt, selfish egos in the world will exercise caution with their fingers on a trigger like that. If there is one thing the ego won't accept it's utter annihilation of itself or the playground it prances on 

I disagree.

A large scale conventional war will happen sooner or later. And the losing side will start using nukes.

Don't underestimate how evil and insane some people are. Not everyone think like you do, it should be obvious at this point..

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_traps_for_intelligence_analysis

"The analyst's country (or organization) is not identical to that of their opponent. One error is to mirror-image the opposition, assuming it will act the same as one's country and culture would under the same circumstances. It seemed inconceivable to the U.S. planners in 1941 that the Japanese would be so foolish to attack a power whose resources so exceeded those of Japan, thus virtually guaranteeing defeat.

In like manner, no analyst in US Navy force protection conceived of an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer such as the USS Cole being attacked with a small suicide boat, much like those the Japanese planned to use extensively against invasion forces during World War II.

An opponent's cultural framework affects its approach to technology. That complicates the task of one's own analysts in assessing the opponent's resources, how they may be used and defining intelligence targets accordingly. Mirror-imaging, committing to a set of common assumptions rather than challenging those assumptions, has figured in numerous intelligence failures.

Opponents are not always rational. They may have a greater risk tolerance than one's own country."

Edited September 7, 2021 by Blackhawk

[Virgo]

On 9/4/2021 at 7:08 PM, Hello from Russia said:

He also adds Hello after that ?

[Stovo]

3 hours ago, modmyth said:

There is some grain of truth to this (the second part), and it's also fundamentally Western rhetoric. It's not just about what they want but about what is possible/ permissible when you have a certain mindset/conditioning to start with. There are a always people willing to bend/ break the rules, of course.

I happen to think there are very powerful cultural counter elements at play, and people here usually don't get it. Not being Chinese, having studied the culture, and/or having lived and seriously intermingled with people from there and all.

But I HAVE studied the culture, lived there, and intermingled with the people

Of course, the culture is very different, but they are still humans with egos. They are already playing a game of Chess with the West in order to expand their influence as much as possible. 

[Stovo]

4 hours ago, Roy said:

A nuclear war won't happen unless there is some kind of freak accident that escalates out of control. And a large-scale conventional war is simply no longer a possibility since 1945 and nuclear weapons exist, period. So the thought doesn't even need to be entertained.

@Roy If you're not worried then you should be worried.

2 hours ago, Blackhawk said:

A large scale conventional war will happen sooner or later. And the losing side will start using nukes.

@Blackhawk  If you're worried then you don't need to be worried.