Leo Gura

Make Your 2020 General Election Predictions Here!

2,462 posts in this topic

Okay, this is my final prediction. You can judge me based on this:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/gXVpL

I predict that it will be at least that, or much better for Biden. Overall this should be a Blue Wave for the Dems similar to 2018.

Let's see...


You are God. You are Love. You are Infinity. You are Leo.

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5 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Okay, this is my final prediction. You can judge me based on this:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/gXVpL

I predict that it will be at least that, or much better for Biden. Overall this should be a Blue Wave for the Dems similar to 2018.

Opposite final results to 2016 ;)

Sticking to my guns - same except no way I'm trusting NC, AZ and ME-2

Edited by tanman91

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8 minutes ago, tanman91 said:

no way I'm trusting NC, AZ

That might be wise. But I'm feelin' optimistic today.


You are God. You are Love. You are Infinity. You are Leo.

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@Leo Gura sorry i didn't understand how this map works. How do you feel about nevada? Few days ago krystal ball said it is in favour of biden but can potentially switch for trump. 

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3 minutes ago, Annoynymous said:

sorry i didn't understand how this map works.

??? O.o

Blue states go to Biden.

Nevada is definitely going Biden.


You are God. You are Love. You are Infinity. You are Leo.

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What about Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan? 

Trump has been rallying hard in Pennsylvania. 

 

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It's Biden's election to lose but there still is a chance Trump could win. We are entering zero hour now. Casting my vote tomorrow. See you all back here tomorrow night. 

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Here's a little fun fact about my state, Ohio.

"Ohio is a state that has an uncanny ability to pick presidents. For the last 14 presidential elections, the winner of Ohio has also taken the White House — including 2016."

We will see if it holds true this time. 


“You don’t have problems; you are the problem.”

– Swami Chinmayananda

Namaste ? ?

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I would agree that Biden has the better chance mainly due to the left being tired of Trump's presidency, and people overall just seeking change. Biden's presidency won't be good by any means, but we also have to factor in voter suppression and the mess that the electoral college is right now. Many states require their candidates vote for their popular vote but at no repercussion for it so they get away with it.

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3 minutes ago, Preety_India said:

@Ananta  lol please noooooooooo. 

Lol! ...what? 


“You don’t have problems; you are the problem.”

– Swami Chinmayananda

Namaste ? ?

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Just now, Ananta said:

Lol! ...what? 

Ohio should not go red this time. 

That's what I'm wishing. 

 

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Just now, Preety_India said:

 

Ohio should not go red this time. 

That's what I'm wishing. 

 

In my area, north East Ohio, it is currently red. Trump signs are everywhere and not those tiny ones...big huge ones. Lol.

Practically everyone I know (from irl, to family,  co-workers and FB friends), except my in-laws, are voting for Trump.

But still, that only one section of Ohio. I don't know what other areas are doing.


“You don’t have problems; you are the problem.”

– Swami Chinmayananda

Namaste ? ?

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@Carl-Richard

2 hours ago, Carl-Richard said:

aj9RARx_460s.jpg

Bruhhhh I'm legit saving this thank you 


Hark ye yet again — the little lower layer. All visible objects, man, are but as pasteboard masks. But in each event — in the living act, the undoubted deed — there, some unknown but still reasoning thing puts forth the mouldings of its features from behind the unreasoning mask. If man will strike, strike through the mask! How can the prisoner reach outside except by thrusting through the wall? To me, the white whale is that wall, shoved near to me. Sometimes I think there's naught beyond. But 'tis enough.

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3 hours ago, Preety_India said:

What about Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan? 

Trump has been rallying hard in Pennsylvania. 

 

I think Ohio is going to go to Trump now.

However, I am very confident that Michigan will go to Biden. Biden has way too large of a lead now and he's currently shown to clearly be favor for it. Hell, Biden has a significantly higher probability of winning Michigan than he does with Nevada according to both the rcp and FiveThirtyEight polls. Also, according to the forecast of FiveThirtyEight, Biden has around 95% of winning Michigan, while Biden has around an 88% of winning Nevada. Therefore, if Leo believes that Biden will definitely win Nevada, then I am sure that he also believes that Biden will definitely win Michigan. Plus, Michael Moore, a major political activist from Flint, Michigan seems to have been doing a tremendous amount of work like crazy on getting some democratic politicians and other democratic supporters out there to do a lot of extra ground game for Biden. It's actually looking like Moore's help with all of that has been working. Also, Michael Moore was the guy who correctly predicted Trump's win back in 2016 and now he is predicting this time that Trump will very likely lose the election including the state of Michigan.

Now, Pennsylvania is the one I am worried about. However, Leo said yesterday or the day before that Biden is very likely to win it in part because it's one of his home states and also because Biden's campaign had campaigned very hard in the state, especially throughout the whole day today with everything they got. Nevertheless, I am worried that Biden is slipping a bit with this state.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Ananta said:

"Ohio is a state that has an uncanny ability to pick presidents. For the last 14 presidential elections, the winner of Ohio has also taken the White House — including 2016."

 

That’s crazy. 

Is it just a coincidence or is it because Ohio has more electoral votes?

 

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Final prediction: https://www.270towin.com/maps/Wpglx

Didn't change much, just a little less secure about some states. Wisconsin might become red again like 2016, too.

The money / market predicts a Trump win because:
- the betting markets heavily favor Trump (= you win less betting on him).
- Stock markets indicate a Trump win because the oil and energy companies' stocks surged while big tech lost. This means the market is expecting the candidate that is pro fracking and anti big tech monopolies to win.

BTW, I'm NOT saying I want this. I'm german and think both candidates aren't the best the US has to offer. Putting it out here to see how well the prediction holds up and how good / bad my model of reality is.

Edited by Geromekevin

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46 minutes ago, Dany Balan said:

Trump is going to win!!! MAke America stage blue again,Stage green???TO THE BIN!!!!!! 

My boy Donald J. Trump is going to win,and i cant wait for the meltdowns of the libs and the hard crying of those SJW!

And i can't wait for the victory speech from Trump, where he makes a ton of fun of the liberals and of Biden!!!!

Heil Trump,Heil mein fuhrer Donald J Trump!!!! SIEG HEIL!!!!! HEIL FASCISM in America! :DB|

Biden is going to win!!! He will Restore the Soul of the Nation! America will be on track to go to stage green and beyond!

My man Joe R. Biden is going to win, and I can't wait for the meltdowns of the GOP and the hard crying of those brainwashed morons!

And I can't wait for the victory speech from Biden, where he makes a scathing remark of those conservatives and the criminal that Trump is!!

All Hail Biden! God Bless Joe R. Biden!!!! The Trumpslayer! DEMOCRACY and UNITY will be RESTORED in AMERICA!:DB|

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27 minutes ago, Geromekevin said:

Final prediction: https://www.270towin.com/maps/Wpglx

Didn't change much, just a little less secure about some states. Wisconsin might become red again like 2016, too.

The money / market predicts a Trump win because:
- the betting markets heavily favor Trump (= you win less betting on him).
- Stock markets indicate a Trump win because the oil and energy companies' stocks surged while big tech lost. This means the market is expecting the candidate that is pro fracking and anti big tech monopolies to win.

BTW, I'm NOT saying I want this. I'm german and think both candidates aren't the best the US has to offer. Putting it out here to see how well the prediction holds up and how good / bad my model of reality is.

Dude, the vast majority of predictors who work in the stock market predict a Biden win.

The betting markets heavily favor Biden.

Stock markets indicate that a Biden victory will bring back stability and reliability in the stock market. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2020/10/29/trump-biden-election-2020-stimulus-stock-market-dow/3755707001/

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2020/11/02/trump-vs-biden-presidential-predictor-forecasts-biden-win/6122449002/

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/02/investing/dow-stock-market-election/index.html

And no, these sources are not from "fake news." These are honest and valid predictions based on sound logic, common sense, and much practical evidence.

 

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