President Kamala Harris.

[Buck Edwards]

Excellent analysis of Kamala's raucous DNC speech. By the way the DNC was just awesome. Electric crowds. Best DNC so far. 

 

Edited August 25 by Buck Edwards

[Hatfort]

6 hours ago, aurum said:

Leftist RFK followers, now voting for Trump, is the ultimate irony.

Nah, maybe a few leftist anitvax loonies, but a very insignificant number. Trump is a good repellent for most leftists, the loss for the left is that RFK was eating from Trump's base, and now is not.

[Leo Gura]

50 minutes ago, Hatfort said:

Nah, maybe a few leftist anitvax loonies, but a very insignificant number. Trump is a good repellent for most leftists, the loss for the left is that RFK was eating from Trump's base, and now is not.

There is a significant number of people who vote for RFK and Trump who would normally be leftists.

Horseshoe theory.

[Extreme Z7]

21 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Horseshoe theory.

More like Donkey theory

Anyway, considering RFK had like 5% of polling or something. Maybe around 2.5% average go to Trump, I'm thinking.

Edited August 25 by Extreme Z7

[Leo Gura]

4 hours ago, Extreme Z7 said:

Maybe around 2.5% average go to Trump, I'm thinking.

If that's true Trump has won reelection.

[Buck Edwards]

My entire family will be voting for Kamala Harris. 

[aurum]

6 hours ago, Hatfort said:

Nah, maybe a few leftist anitvax loonies, but a very insignificant number. Trump is a good repellent for most leftists, the loss for the left is that RFK was eating from Trump's base, and now is not.

Well I think it remains to be seen how this plays out. It does seem that RFK was pulling more from the right. But I wouldn’t underestimate the number of lefties supporting RFK.

Look at who his senior advisor is, Charles freaking Eisenstein. I was a fan of his work at one point. You basically can’t go more left than this guy:

https://www.kennedy24.com/eisenstein-video

He represents a significant demographic that RFK is pulling from.

If Charles ends up voting for Trump, I will have lost almost all respect for that guy.

Edited August 25 by aurum

[Leo Gura]

Even if RFK was pulling from the right, it doesn't matter because now those people will def vote Trump where they would have wasted their votes otherwise.

Now RFK has single-handedly enabled MAGA neo-fascism.

Edited August 25 by Leo Gura

[aurum]

13 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Horseshoe theory is real, folks.

Honestly.

Establishment democrats say Trump is bad, so he must be good 

[Forestluv]

Overall, I think it's a wash. Trump might get about a 1% net boost on the RFK Jr. shift, yet Trump is doubling down on lunatic conspiracy theories / Qanon. Doing so will shift about 1% of undecided voters toward Trump (and some weak Trump supporters shift to undecided). 

It seems Trump is deepening the commitment within his base and marginalizing any dissent. In contrast, Harris has been trying to expand her appeal with a populist messaging that polls well with centrist voters, such as supporting the bipartisan Border Security bill. . .  This doesn't seem to be marginalizing the left since they want to beat Trump so badly. As well, the left was surprised and thrilled that she picked Walz, a solid middle-left pick.

[Leo Gura]

A lot of independants like RFK and now they will be skewing Trump-ward.

[Forestluv]

32 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

A lot of independants like RFK and now they will be skewing Trump-ward.

For sure. . . I'm guessing the net skew overall. If 3% of independents skew Trump-ward and 3.5% of independents skew Harris-ward, it's a net gain for Harris. As well, there may be some left-leaning unlikely voters that shift toward likely voter.  Yet this view is biased toward voting based on reasonableness and could be wrong.

Edited August 25 by Forestluv

[Leo Gura]

52 minutes ago, Forestluv said:

If 3% of independents skew Trump-ward and 3.5% of independents skew Harris-ward,

That's way too optimistic.

I would guess that independents vote for Trump vs Harris 70/30. Or worse.

Edited August 25 by Leo Gura

[Forestluv]

2 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

That's way too optimistic.

I would guess that independents vote for Trump vs Harris 70/30. Or worse.

I was just considering an RFK Jr. impact on a subset of independents, not how independents might vote overall.

Holistically, I see a lot of variables and can imagine many different scenarios playing out. . . . Whenever I zoom-in to one input (like RFK Jr.) and try to get grounded, lots of other related inputs arise - allowing for other possibilities. 

[Terell Kirby]

Let’s keep in mind that RFK Jr doesn’t speak for all independent/swing voters. For the majority who planned on voting for RFK will certainly vote Trump following this endorsement, which could leave quite an impact in swing states (Michigan, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania). However, there are still a vast number of undecided voters who will likely make their decision the day of the election (could skew Harris or Trump). I believe this number is greater than that of the designated group of RFK defectors.

At the end of the day it’s a toss up, no one can accurately predict voter turnout or the gut decisions of undecided voters. We only find out when we get the election results.

Edited August 25 by Terell Kirby

[Raze]

1 hour ago, Leo Gura said:

That's way too optimistic.

I would guess that independents vote for Trump vs Harris 70/30. Or worse.

I doubt that. Trump didn’t even get that in 2016. Those are landslide numbers.

[Extreme Z7]

10 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

If that's true Trump has won reelection.

Still depends on the swing states, I suppose. Let's wait for those poll results.

[Jodistrict]

23 hours ago, aurum said:

Leftist RFK followers, now voting for Trump, is the ultimate irony.

 

Not necessarily.   The question is why has RFK decided that there is a better hope of implementing real changes to the status quo with Trump than with the Democratic Party?   Since RFK is a legitimate progressive with street creds, it could be time for those still in the democratic party to go through some serious introspection and critical analysis.

[aurum]

1 hour ago, Jodistrict said:

Not necessarily.   The question is why has RFK decided that there is a better hope of implementing real changes to the status quo with Trump than with the Democratic Party?   Since RFK is a legitimate progressive with street creds, it could be time for those still in the democratic party to go through some serious introspection and critical analysis.

I don’t have a problem with critiques of the democratic party in general. They can and should be made.

But let’s be clear: if someone thinks a Trump admin is going to implement their progressive vision, they have lost the plot.

Trump and his people are gearing up for Project 2025 authoritarian, social conservatism like we haven’t seen before. There will be nothing progressive about it.

Kennedy is being a fool for this. His bias against the democrats is going to land us in MAGA hell.

[Leo Gura]

Imagine signing a contract with Satan because he promises to do progressive things for you in the future to improve the health of average people.

It's a joke.

Edited August 26 by Leo Gura